I did search and have not found anything recent to touch the subject from the angle i was looking for. Of course there's the recent one about a disaster for KB, but that's a preconceived scenario.
What would be really interesting to speculate on, is what would really happen, given the stregths and weaknesses of both sides, if KB was dicovered before the attacks? What is the most likely scenario for them to be discovered, any missed opportunities from the US side that would be interesting to ponder on? Conversely, more details about what the japanese were planning if discovered would be interesting (i'm refering to searches and targets, presumably if they find any warships at sea they will attack those first and not the harbour). Also, what would be the likely impact of Enterprise and Lexington, the first was 200 miles south while the latter was off Midway, so perhaps only Enterprise has a chance to intervene in any way in the latter stages? Perhaps they might be tempted to have Lexington sail north and cut KB off while on their way back to Japan.
Of course, it makes big difference if the americans have couple of hours, or a full day of warning. I remember that i've seen some documentary about PH in which this scenario was wargamed, if my memory is ok given a few hours warning the US is likely to still loose 3 or 4 BBs but i think at sea as they were just trying to clear harbour (but please correct me on that if it's not the case), while the KB lost 75 aircraft. Don't recall much about any US counterstrikes though.
Me i'm speculating that opposed to the almost 400 KB aircraft (of which 350 commited to the attacks in two waves) there would be available about 70% of the US aircraft, the rest being in repair, maintenance etc. Still this would account for about 10 B-17s and about 30 B-18 and A-20, over 100 P-40 and P-36, about 15 F2A and F4F and about 25 SBD/SB2U, plus several tens of PBYs which could search all around. The US flak on ships and harbour would be more alert, ships better manned etc.
Conversely, either Yoshikawa (if discovered the day before) or a lumbering PBY (if discovered at dawn on the 7th) could prompt KB that they have been discovered.