What if Conrad von Hötzendorf's Strafexpedition is not launched against Italy in 1916?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Asiago
The battle helped lead to the Brusilov offensive being launched and most likely was the reason for its success. Seeing as Conrad was obsessed with attacking Italy (his arch-nemesis), his remaining in control of the Austro-Hungarian army is not conducive to this POD. Let's say that (the future) Kaiser Karl's campaign to have him removed pays off after the Hebstsau (Fall Fuck Up):
http://books.google.com/books?id=bQ...ved=0CCoQ6AEwBA#v=onepage&q=herbstsau&f=false
This means Kaiser Franz Josef finally uses the failure of the Autumn offensive in 1915 as an excuse to remove him from command after all his failures. Karl is given greater say in the army as he will soon be Kaiser himself and Franz Josef views giving Karl the reins over the army as the start of transition. This mean Arz von Straussenburg takes over command of the AH army about a year early, injecting the AH military with a much-needed dose of competence.
http://www.austro-hungarian-army.co.uk/biog/arz.htm
Realizing the army needs time to retrain and recuperate after the losses of 1914 and 1915, he rejects calls to attack and focuses on professionalizing the army, including axing incompetent commanders with the full backing of Karl.
However in appointing him AH finally accedes to the joint command of the Eastern Front that Conrad had resisted for so long.
This leaves the Eastern Front quiet for the early part of 1916. Italy attacks on the Isonzo and is repulsed again, while the Eastern Front takes precedence in AH planning. Brusilov is still expected to launch his offensive to aid the West Front (the Russian army group, not France), which is supposed to attack the Germans to draw off forces from Verdun. Now however Arz if focused on resisting the Russian attacks and counterattacking. This means that the AH defenses are actually completed in depth, heavy artillery and the majority of forces are in the 2nd and 3rd lines, and forces are trained for zone defense with German help. Most importantly AOK (AH high command) actually has oversight over army commands on the Eastern Front and makes sure they actually do what they are ordered.
The Brusilov offensive is launched against the full preparation of AH forces. What happens now? Frankly, I doubt Brusilov's offensive would have worked. His success was predicated on AH incompetence and drawing off of forces and artillery for the Italian offensive. This left the Eastern Front dry and over extended, especially as only the first line of three was prepared. That left the entire army within Russian artillery range, meaning they were smashed up in the initial bombardment with no reserves. All Brusilov's boys had to do was clean up.
Here that won't hold true, as the defenses are mainly weighted toward the back end with all three lines completed, including concrete bunkers with heavy artillery.
The results are still initially good, as the Russians could still break through the first line, but the main line of resistance would hold them up and break the attacks. The offensive fails to achieve any sort of success that occurred OTL, which mortally wounded the AH army and Empire. Instead the offensive lives up to its goal: it pins the AHs to the Southwest Front and leaves them unable to assist the Germans to the north.
What happens next? I have a few ideas, but I would like to hear more from everyone else.
A few points though:
-Without the success to reinforce against the AHs the Russians then will have to launch their attacks against the Germans
-The Germans won't need reinforcements from the West to hold up the AH front, meaning more for Verdun/Somme
-Russian morale will drop without the victory and AH will likely rise from defeating the Russians, probably helping keep the loyalty of the Slavic groups in the Empire.