No Spanish Civil War in 1936 (my new Timeline)

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From www.commonpedia.org/Battle_of_Brittany _(1940)

…after the fall of Paris and the german breakthrough towards Orleans and the Loire in late September, the german armies had finally succeeded in their goal of separating the French and british armies. With large French troop concentrations being surrounded in Lorraine and Champagne, the only allied forces capable of sustained resistance were now trying to reorganize south of the Loire. To gain time, british forces tried to resist in Bretagne, menacing the german flank.

…the Breton campaign was succesful in drawing many german troops away from the Loire front, but it only slowed down the german advance. However, when the germans took Brest in November 1, thousands of valuable elite german troops had been drawn away from the main advance towards Bourdeaux.


From A war to be won, history of the second World War, by Alan Millett; Harvard University Press, 2000

…Fall Rot was a pyrrhic victory for the Wehrmacht. In seven months of constant fighting, from the Belgian border to the Pyrenées, the germans lost 50% of their armoured forces, 65% of their fighter forces, and a staggering 70% of their bombers. Only the fact that the allied losses had been much worse, and that the allies were overestimating greatly the german capabilities, prevented the war from ending in 1940 out of exhaustion. Ironically, it has been pointed out that, had Churchill not put Britain into war footing in March 1939, the germans would have not done the same and their forces would have been too weak in 1941 to even attempt an invasion of Spain. This counterfactual must, of course, be taken with a pinch of salt. [1]

[1]This is how I deal with Alratan’s objection about Germany literally running out of tanks and planes in September. With Churchill and Reynaud waking up in March 1939, Hitler (OK, Speer) also decides to crank up the german industrial machine, with the result of the Wehrmacht having more tanks, planes and spare parts than in OTL. OK, this is too uncomfortably close to handwaving Alratan’s observation, but it is the best I could come up with.


…In mid-october, the rains stopped the german advance south of the Loire. By this time, the germans were finally enjoying numerical superiority over the entire front after hundreds of thousands of british and French troops had been captured or forced to evacuate to England.

…the last stages of this first battle of France, between October and late November 1940, were almost a return to 19th century warfare. With both sides’ armoured formations almost depleted, and aviation taking a lesser role with bad weather, the bulk of combat duties fell again over the infantry. During weeks, the ghosts of long trench lines, this time running from the Vendee to Savoie, haunted again both high commands. But, unlike 1914, the allies had lost too many men, too many equipment and was too disorganized to do little than withdraw towards Spain. La Rochelle fell in October 12, with Nantes and St Nazaire surrendering in October 15 after the French had destroyed the port facilities.

…In December 1940 the germans had lost almost half a million men in six months of vicious fighting[1]. This, coupled with the enormous losses of armour and aircraft, led the OKH to redefine the goals for 1941. Hitler started considering if the invasion of Russia could be delayed to 1942.

[1]that's four times the casualties they suffered in OTL between may and june 1940.


From Charles de Gaulle, by Ian Mitnick; Random House, New York, 1992

…With Paris fallen, the French government left Tours for Bourdeaux. Despite the staggering german losses, the allies could not stop their moment. De Gaulle was called to Bourdeaux in October 2, one week after the fall of Paris, and after his army had lost most of their tanks in the failed counteroffensive of Auxerre. By this time, the French armies guarding the Maginot Line were withdrawing and risked being encircled by the german spearheads that drove towards the Rhone.

…In Bourdeaux, De Gaulle found a demoralized government where an armistice with the germans was being seen as a viable option. Many generals did not like the idea of fighting a war in the behalf of the British and the anarchist rabble of Spain. Churchill’s negative to deploy the rest of the RAF in France to help win air superiority was not helping, even if, with hindsight, it seems obvious today that the Luftwaffe was already in the brink of collapsing as an offensive force.

…From the beginning it was clear that Pétain and De Gaulle could not be together in the same government. While the first was an outspoken proponent of armistice, the latter insisted that the fight had to be kept on. Debate kept going on for days, while the panzers, after a momentary stop to reorganize after the fall of Paris, crossed the Loire.

…In October 15, the French 2nd army group surrendered near épinal in Champagne. This was the last allied formation resisting north of the Seine, and it was by far the worst loss the allies had suffered, with 25 french divisions falling prisoners of the germans. When news of this defeat arrived to Bourdeaux, the Pétain faction pressed again for an armistice.

…Reynaud was during a very heavy pressure during these days. The german offensive and the fall of Paris had taken a very heavy toll on his morale, and his pronazi lover did not help things. Only De Gaulle’s staunch support was helping him to cope with increasing pressure to settle things with the germans.

…In October 21, with the german advance being bogged down by autumn rains, Churchill arrived to Bourdeaux from London via Madrid to discuss the situation in France. De Gaulle met with him and told that Reynaud was desperate and that he was in the brink of resigning.


From The Second World War, by Winston Churchill, 1951

…Reynaud confessed to me that he was losing whatever little support remained to him and that he would soon be forced to resign and that the Petainistes would then take over and force France out of the war. I brought him my continued reassurance that the Empire’s forces would forever fight to liberate France and end Hitler’s tyranny, as seen in the fresh Australian and New Zealand troops that were landing in Marseilles to prevent the germans from reaching the Mediterranean.
…During my stay at Bourdeaux, the city was bombed several times by the Luftwaffe. Despite the german advance being bogged down at a line that ran from La Rochelle to Lyon due to the autumn rains, the Luftwaffe could now attack anywhere in mainland France. The situation was really grim. Despite having inflicted terrible losses to the germans, the allied forces almost had no tanks or planes, and, with the French factories in german hands, and the british factories under aerial attack, we could do little but to withdraw in order towards the Pyrenées


from A Contemporary History of Spain (1808-2002), by Gabriel Burnsdale, Palgrave Ed. London, 2004.

…the end of the early republic began in October 25, 1940, when, after weeks of intense negotiation, the centre and centre right parties agreed to partake on a War government. The nazi menace looming at the other side of the Pyrenees had achieved the miracle of uniting groups that, only years before, literally hated each other to death.

…Together with the political squabbling, the menace of invasion also put a moratory to the Revolution. It was time to win the war, and the revolution could be kept up once Hitler had been defeated. Rationing of many commodities had been in place since August. The War Measures Act tried to copy the british model of total war industry, while the Defense of the Motherland Act declared a moratory on every anarchist activity and instituted an expanded Civil Service. By late 1940, Spanish society was fully working for the war effort.


From Trotsky, Stalin, Durruti, by George Orwell. Secker & Wartburg, London, 1953

…Trotsky had been working in the book for all of 1940 when he decided that the situation in Spain could turn ugly if the Nazis crossed the Pyrenees. The collapse of the allied armies in August had taken everybody by surprise, and it now seemed like the Panzer divisions could storm Barcelona in any moment.

…During 1940, I was a privileged witness of Trotsky’s inner dilemmas. I cannot even understand how hard must have been to slowly realize to see the futility of more than 40 years of struggle. His revolutionary youth in Russia, his friendship and split with Lenin, his escape from the Siberian prison, the long road towards the Revolution, the utopian dreams of 1917, the civil war and the creation of the Red Army, the fight against Stalin, and the long exile… all that effort wasted in what he was realizing was a false ideal. He lost weight, suffered from insomnia, and spent the days either frantically writing at his study or contemplating Barcelona from the plaza at Park Güell, surrounded by his bodyguards.

…With the fall of France, and with only winter preventing the Wehrmacht from entering Spain, Trotsky finally accepted Hemingway’s offer to move to his Havana house and left Barcelona in December, shortly after the Luftwaffe had started bombing the city.
 
Barbarossa in 1942, no invasion of the Balkans and no African-Italian campaigns...the redistribution of manpower will surely be interesting...but what's to happen to Yugoslavia? without an Italian invasion of Greece, might the faction led by Prince Paul remain in power? unlikely, but there's also the issue of Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and their role in the war, not to mention Finland's...sorry...I forget, was there a Winter war ITTL?

That was going to be treated in the next update, and there were mentions to the Winter War a while back. I assume it went pretty much as OTL, except the soviets suffered still more losses.

Also there's to consider the reactions in Brazil after an invasion of Portugal, while a Nazi invasion of Spain, combined with the butterfly effect of the TL, would of course prevent the military coup of 1943 in Buenos Aires and even lead to a pro-allied government declaring war upon Germany in 1941 or 1942...I'd assume Mexico and Cuba would have done the same previously...
oh, Latin America will take a more active role in TTL. In fact, I have interesting designs for TTL's Perón . :D
 
Also there's to consider the reactions in Brazil after an invasion of Portugal, while a Nazi invasion of Spain, combined with the butterfly effect of the TL, would of course prevent the military coup of 1943 in Buenos Aires and even lead to a pro-allied government declaring war upon Germany in 1941 or 1942...I'd assume Mexico and Cuba would have done the same previously...

I think that Vargas wouldn't care much about the fate of Portugal. The war isn't over and he would still wait and see what the USA will do and what the allies will offer for Brazilian colaboration (IOTL he convinced the Americans to build a steel-maker industry, the Companhia Siderurgica Nacional).
 
Oh, yes the americans...if Pearl Harbor still happens on Schedule, and if war is declared in late 1941 while the Soviet Union is invaded in 1942, what would that do to Lend-Lease if the Americans have to both activate their war-economy and send stuff to the Soviet Union?

The whole thing worked fine, but I was thinking that there'd be some troubles since the Lend-lease IOTL started in June of 1941, six months before Pearl Harbour...I could be wrong and maybe things will remain the same, but...

Finally, with the much bloodier and prolongued battle in France, how stable is Winston Churchill's government? Chamberlain's collapsed after Norway, and while Winston's survived Dunkirk and Fall Rot, the 'victory' at the battle of Britain (an impossibility ITTL) was IIRC what saved him...might he lose support as the war in Spain costs even more British lives?...if so, there are few replacements other than Lord Halifax and...you know who, the option you brought up some months ago...although that's be cool...

Pearl Harbor won't happen on schedule. Just so you know.

It is true that with the bigger and more brutal Battle of France Churchill will receive some severe flak; but the difference is that in TTL the allies have proven that the germans are not invincible and that, with time, they can be beaten back. It's not as in OTL, where during 1940 and 1941 the Wehrmacht seemed an unstoppable juggernaut. The british public knows that Nazi germany is a terrible threat and that they have also suffered terrible losses.

anyway, the allies will have the entire winter of 1941 to prepare. When Hitler attacks Spain, he will do so with full force. But at the other side of the Pyrenees await the spanish army and militias which will fight fanatically for the Revolution and the Motherland, whatever the french and belgians could salvage, and the entire fucking British Empire. That's not counting the american and latin american volunteers, and the lend-lease equipment that will arrive directly to portuguese and spanish ports. It's going to be funny.
 
The Dutch are probably still in the fight, although marginally in this case. And you have the Free Poles that fought at Tobruk and the two divisions and two brigades equipped by the French, and the Czech division in France too. Australians, New Zealanders, Portugese, South Africans, Rhodesians, the Arab Legion, Canadians, etc. Multinational fighting force FTW. ;) I guess there will be a form of International Brigades of volunteers for the Spanish free socialist movement, that is bound to garner a lot of support from all left-wingers of the world.

If Fall Rot was done mainly with infantry, the French, the British and the Belgians would have had more time to retreat and evacuate, especially heavy equipment. If the Luftwaffe is depleted, the RAF and RN can probably protect those evacuations pretty well, too. Advancing with infantry when HMS Queen Elizabeth protects the evacuation with 38cm guns can be rather perilous, especially if the focus is down south attacking Paris.

Also, with Italy out of the war, the French can strip Africa pretty clean, as can the British. That means 10-15 French colonial divisions, and as many British (Indian, KAR, etc) and perhaps a Brigade from the Belgian Force Publique (that in OTL took part in the invasion of Italian East Africa).

Spain is not really tank country either. My God, if it survives a year it will look like a big military camp á la southern England spring 1944 with perhaps as much as 100 allied divisions, even before an entrance of the US into the war!

This might mean that the Germans go for full war production Spring 1941 instead of late Autumn 1942.
 
Spain is not really tank country either. My God, if it survives a year it will look like a big military camp á la southern England spring 1944 with perhaps as much as 100 allied divisions, even before an entrance of the US into the war!

This might mean that the Germans go for full war production Spring 1941 instead of late Autumn 1942.


100 divisions are too many, I'd say along 70-80 divisions, that are still a lot, seeing how the germans have to cross the mountains and the difficult terrain of the Basque Country and Navarra to arrive to the castilian plains- perfect tank country. Unfortunately, between them and Madrid lies another mountain chain...

there's another update in its way.
 
I was really looking forward to write Reynaud's decision in this update, together with the new Ciano regime in Italy, but as usual, I start writing and when I notice what time it is, it's 2AM, and I only wrote about other stuff.


From A history of the portuguese peoples, by Alexandre Guimaraes, Luanda, 1998

…Craveiro Lopes found himself at an unenviable position after he had seized power. Although his coup had served to achieve Portugal an honourable peace with the allies, Portugal was now torn between wether evolving into an unstable democracy or continuing with an autoritharian government. The british were content that Portugal was again a british friend, but the Spaniards had left clear that they would not tolerate another dictature in the Iberian peninsula. Portugal’s colonies would serve as the allies’ hostages to this.

…Craveiro started with cautious steps liberalizing the most repressive measures of the Regime. Although Portugal was still a Estado Novo, the secret police was all but disbanded and some basic rights were again restored. The communist party, however, kept being illegal, which led to some low level insurgence that would keep on until the german invasion of the USSR.

…President Carmona, despite being a figurehead for most of Salazar’s regime, was too associated with it, and stepped down from his position in March 1940. Craveiro announced that, as an interim measure, he would maintain the offices of President and Prime Minister until elections could be held.

… as a gesture of good will, Portugal declared war on Germany in May 3. Weeks later, Craveiro announced that elections for a constitutional assembly would be held in autumn. Communist candidates were not allowed to run, but the new regime overlooked the fast growth of an anarchist movement similar to the Spanish one.

…In the September elections, held with the looming menace of the german advance, the Portuguese branch of the Iberian Worker’s Party was able to hold 25 seats at the Constitutional Assembly, becoming the 3rd leftist party in the House after the Republicans and the Socialists. Craveiro, despite all his cautiousness, found himself with a revolutionary party playing a role in the draft of the new Portuguese constitution. [1]

[1]Due to Spain’s pressure and financing during the years prior to the war, the Portuguese anarchists are significantly stronger than in OTL.



From www.ucronia.es/debate, 1995[2]

BELERIAND
Sorry if this has been asked before, but, WI Italy had declared war on the allies again in October 1940? If Italy invades France when the allied armies are withdrawing, Fortaleza Iberia would have never happened and the Nazis would have had a chance to win the war.

GENERAL_FRANCO
Short Answer: NEUMA
Long answer: this has been discussed to death in this discussion webhall many times before. Use the damn search function.

CHAOS DOCTOR
This really is the GIW[3] equivalent of the CSA taking Washington.

GENERAL_FRANCO
Nah, that would be the Nazis holding on to Moscow.

COMRADE QUIXOTE
In case you’re lazy to search: Ciano was no Mussolini. Italy was too busy consolidating Yugoslavia. Italy had hopes of recovering Libya after the war. The Italian people did not want war with the Western Allies after getting their asses handed to them in the spring. Even with the Italian army crossing the alps and backstabbing the withdrawing French (no small feat, in fact, as proved by the combats in the alps during the spring of 1940, an almost impossible deed), the british could just land pretty much anywhere south of Naples without the Italians being able to stop them. Italy entering the war in the west in the axis side again before 1944 is NEUMA, and only if somehow Ciano decided that he hates the westerns more than communism. Which is difficult since he was kind of an anglophile.

CHAOS DOCTOR
Yep, that pretty much sums it all.

BELERIAND
C’mon, I don’t care about why it happened. This is supposed to be an uchrony site, so let’s see what would happen. Would the French surrender? WI the falangistas try another November?

GENERAL_FRANCO
Sorry, man, this is the 20th century webhall. You’re looking for the NEUMA webhall. Damn raws. [4]

[2]A *Spanish website devoted to AH, translated for your pleasure. And yes, the year is 1995.
[3]Great Independence War
[4]TTL for noobs.
[NEUMA is, obviously, the equivalent of ASB. The letters mean Ni En Un Millon de Años; Not in a Million Years.]

Excerpt from Buenaventura Durruti and the rise of Spanish anarchism, by Joseph Billings, Oxford University Press. 1976.

…the start of the National Unity government was enough for many anarchists, who had become very discontent with the path the movement had been taking, and with Durruti’s growing complacency with his bourgeois duties. The passing of the Total War acts and the growing militarization of Spanish society were also instrumental in the anarchist upheaval that beset Spain between October 1940 and February 1941.

..Ironically, radical anarchist leaders found support among the extreme right, which favoured a separate peace with Germany now that invasion was a very real possibility, and that despised the presence of british military personnel in Spanish soil. In particular, allowing units from the Royal Navy to operate from Ferrol was seen as an egregious insult to national pride.

…In November, a great demonstration by disgruntled anarchists in Madrid barely averted ending in a riot between the demonstrators and the Guardia de Asalto. For a few weeks, it seemed that the political climate of Spain was returning to 1936, as, all over the country, anarchists and stalinists protested the militarization of economical activities and, together with rightists, the Spanish presence in the war.

…It was during these weeks that Durruti started earning all the prestige he would get in the following years. The stalinists were easy to discredit- and the POUM[5] was happy to do so, in another chapter of the intercommunist civil war. However, anarchists were a far tougher nut to crack, since for the very nature of the movement, there were few leaders to bribe, and no definite factions to play against each other. The government’s propaganda machine, that would become one of the most effective in the allied side, was just starting to feed the Spanish public, and Durruti was forced to make serious concessions that would hurt a lot Spain’s image with the allies, especially Britain. Anarchist Militias would not integrate in the Spanish army, anarchist land would not be be controlled by government agents (something that would cause many problems in 1941-1943, as Spain had to depend on American and argentinian wheat to feed the millions of soldiers in its soil), and several other minor concessions. It took the german invasion and the defeats of 1941 to make all the anarchists willing to cooperate without conditions. But these late 1940 concessions, although avoiding a civil strife of unpredictable consequences, hurt a lot spain’s image with the allies, who were learning to see the Spaniards as worthy companions, and specially hurt Spain’s war effort. Although the issue was somewhat hidden after the Liberation, it still remains to see how much of 1941’s defeats in Spanish soil could have been prevented had the anarchists have a more sensible position.

[5]That in OTL was staunchly antiwar.

From A war to be won, history of the second World War, by Alan Millett; Harvard University Press, 2000

…the Battle for Lyon lasted for two weeks as the French and Australian defenders of the city tried to prevent the germans from reaching the Rhone valley. Despite being outnumbered and with most of the Luftwaffe busy in the Channel or the Poitou, the german attackers were able to overcome the resistence of the badly trained and armed allied soldiers. Lyon fell in October 28, although isolated pockets of French resistance would continue for weeks.

…the central sector of the front was quieter, since the germans were now focusing in two axis of advance towards Bourdeaux and Marseille, and the more mountainous terrain favoured the French defenders. However, after the fall of Lyon, german army Group B led by Heinz guderian took a sudden turn west into Saint Etienne and Clermont-Ferrand, menacing to cut off the allied armies in central france. Despite the risky bargain of using his last few armoured forces in an offensive on rugged terrain, Guderian was successful in forcing the French to initiate a disordinate withdrawal towards Toulouse. Thousands of French soldiers would fall prisoners in this First Battle of Auvergne.

… in late October, the germans were finally able to break the French lines in Poitou. The successful aerial attack by the Luftwaffe on the british battleships protecting the coast was decisive to this. The loss of the Queen Elizabeth and the Rodney also was a great morale blow for Britain. As Rommel’s panzer divisions approached Saintes and Angouleme, Reynaud’s government at Bordeaux came into increasing pressure to surrender.
 
Bordeaux, October 30 1940

-That was no aviation bomb –Philippe Pétain said- That was artillery. It must have landed near Yvrac.
-Are they that near?
-Our last reports tell that they have been unable to cross the Dordogne –answered a tired Paul Reynaud- but their artillery is already pounding the city’s northern suburbs.
Nobody answered. For a moment, everything remained silent at the basement of Bordeaux Town Hall while the members of the French government let that sink in. The germans, after two months of unstoppable advance from Belgium, were now shelling Bordeaux. France was running out of land to concede.
Pétain, as vice-president of the council, spoke again:
-It is obvious that we have reached a situation where a tough decision must be made. This government has been hesitating for too long, with the results that can be seen. This government knows my opinion on this matter. I think that reaching a honourable peace with Germany is now the lesser evil.
Reynaud answered:
-I cannot do that. I signed a formal agreement with our allies. Churchill has declared that they will never withdraw from the war. Azaña and Besteiro know that they will be an easy prey if they’re left alone and have begged me to not seek an agreement. They had no obligation to keep on the war once Italy was defeated, but chose to join us. As president of this council, I think that we must follow their example.
-¡Churchill! ¡Besteiro! ¡Those are our allies! Englishmen and anarchists. Britain is tired. Churchill is being very contested from within his own ranks. Once the german submarines start sinking their merchants, they will starve. In a few weeks, Britain will be a chicken with a broken neck. As for the Spaniards, France does not need enemies having such allies. They spend more time bickering with each other than fighting the germans. The anarchist rabble they have allowed into their government does nothing but to block their war effort. After we bailed them out of the Italian fleet, they should have just shut their mouth and stop pretending they were playing in the big leagues.
-So, Marshal –spoke Charles de Gaulle, while another shell shook the room- are you defending that we just give up? Will they pass this time?
Pétain barely averted jumping off his chair, but if looks could kill, De Gaulle would now be a decayed corpse sitting across the table.
-They have already passed, general. Perhaps those tasked with preventing that in the north did not do everything in their hand to avert that.
-Perhaps if those tasked with preventing this entire war hadn’t grown old and..
Reynaud interrupted him before he could finish:
-Enough! I will not allow this table to become the site of a bar brawl! If we have to take a decision, we will do so like civilized people. In this meeting we are deciding the fate of France. Let’s do it properly.
An aide entered the room and gave Reynaud a piece of paper.
-Bad news?
-there are reports that the germans have taken Libourne and hold a bridgehead on this side of the Dordogne. General Gamelin is suggesting that our men withdraw towards Bourdeaux to not be encircled.
-My god. –said Robert Schuman- They are really near. We must either flee or ask for a ceasefire. They cannot be stopped here.
-We and the commonwealth troops are giving them a hard time at the Rhone Valley –answered De Gaulle hesitantly.
-I notice you say the Rhone valley –retorted Pétain-. One week ago, it was Lyon. I wonder what happened in the meantime.
-Maybe if the british had given a better training to their Dominion’s troops… -answered Maxime Weygand- I have to say the british performance in the campaign has been deplorable. And don’t get me started with the Red Army, I mean, the Spanish Expeditionaries.
-that is simply not true, marshal. Churchill has promised me that Britain will put forward the entire resources of the empire to help us. Besteiro is taking measures to militarize the Spanish economy, and we can also count with the backing of the Portuguese empire. We are not alone in this.
-Portugal and Spain will not make a difference, and I give Churchill one more month in charge before he is ousted and Lord Halifax asks for peace. That is, assuming he told the truth- reposed Pétain. As Vice President of this council, I have to ask our President that he considers seriously if keeping on with this lost battle will do any good to France.
-I have already clarified my position. This battle is lost, but the war is not. We can count with the full support of the british and the Spanish, and the material support of the Americans. Perhaps it will not be longer before Roosevelt declares war on Germany. France must not seek any agreement. This will only end with our complete defeat or our armies entering Berlin. This has become an extermination war. If this council fully supports me, I will give such answer to our allies.
Out of twenty men sitting around the large table, eleven nodded in approval of Reynaud’s words. A tense moment of silence followed. Reynaud sighed.
-I see that I do not have this council’s support. I have done everything possible to defend my position. I will now put my charge on President Lebrun’s discretion.
Paul Reynaud left the room, while Pétain showed a clear smile of satisfaction. Far away, but not enough, the german artillery kept pounding Bordeaux.

[This is an analogue of OTL meeting where Reynaud resigned in June 16 1940. The most obvious difference; in OTL, the meeting’s main point was to discuss Churchill’s plan for an anglo-french union. In TTL, the presence of Spain and Portugal among the allies has prevented Churchill from doing this, since he does not want that much integration with a state like Spain, but it is too big and important to be left aside. This also means that, not feeling that the british are trying to take over the country, Reynaud has more support among the members of the council. It is interesting to note, that in OTL, supporters of Reynaud were actually a majority, but since he did not have the full confidence of the council, he resigned. Once Pétain took over, well…]
 
Two hours later
Albert Lebrun had always been aware that his charge as president of the French Republic held little actual power, and that he was more of a funny figurehead than of an actual statesman. He had always tried his best to act as such and be a moderating figure among the different factions of French politics. He had done it right, since he held almost universal support and had been reelected the year before. He was now being forced to do the most controversial decision in his life.
-It is something difficult that you are asking from me. And I doubt the parliament will approve.
-The parliament is not in a position to argue. Most of its members are scattered around France. Those left will vote whatever they are asked to.
-are you sure this is the best for France, given the situation?
-It is. I am sure we will find a lot of resistence, but it is the most honourable exit. In the long term, I will be proven right.
-I tell you, there is a procedure to follow. Reynaud did not give me any advice on who to choose as his successor, and I think choosing you would cause great unrest between the government, since you have a less than full support from the government and parts of the army.
-That can be dealt with, Mr. President. With a little… bending of, urm, procedures.
-What you propose is not only insulting, but illegal. Were you not a veteran and highly respected soldier, I would have already ousted you.
-Mr. President, desperate times claim for desperate measures. I have reasons to think that the army and the parliament would not disapprove of this move. This is for France, sire. Our survival is at the stake. This is the other sensible option. We all would have preferred that things had been otherwise, but it can’t be undone now.
Lebrun looked by the window. He could see the artillery fire glowing in the horizon above Bordeaux’ houses and thought about what had happened to arrive to this situation. Could it be fixed? Why did he have to do such difficult decisions? He sighed and told the man sitting across the desk:
-Fine. I give you my confidence to become the next President of the Council. I hope the parliament and the army will confirm this, because you will have to take some unpleasant measures to deal with the opposition. I hope I have done the right decision. I will now inform the council.









One hour later, Charles de Gaulle gave his famous address of October 30:

-People of France, our President has given me his confidence to guide our great republic through these dark days. The enemy is at the gates of Bordeaux. Most of our nation has been overrun by its tanks, its soldiers, its planes. Defeat seems final. Even amongst our own ranks, dismay has grown enough that some treacherous individuals have asked to seek for a peace with Germany.
But has the last word been said? Must hope disappear? Is defeat final? No!
Nothing is lost for France! France may have lost a battle, but it has not lost the war. France may have lost many men, but as long as a Frenchman is still able to fight, no words of surrender will be uttered! For France is not alone! Is not alone! France still has a vast empire behind her! France has the unlimited support of the British Empire that still controls the seas and that will fight to the end! France has the support of the Spanish and Portuguese Republics, whose valiant soldiers will fight to the last bullet to protect their newly acquired freedom! France has the friendship of the United States, that will put let us use their immense industrial capacity!
This is a world war. The Battle of France has only been a battle, and the enemy has won it. I assure you, sooner or later, the enemy will be beaten back. With the force of the allied nations, France will be liberated and the earth cleansed of the nazi scourge. I invite every French military personnel still fighting to start an ordered withdrawal towards the Mediterranean ports and the Spanish border. We will be back. Sooner or later, we will be back. To those who are forced to remain in occupied territory, remember: as long as we keep fighting, the flame of French spirit will never be extinguished. Whatever happens, France abides!

[hahahahahah, I tricked you all]
 
Lebrun's choice of De Gaulle as the new french leader needs an explanation after my little narrative joke. Pétain, as vicepresident of the council, is the obvious choice to succeed Reynaud. However, unlike OTL, the french know that the germans can be defeated, and that Spain and North Africa are there as a safe backup position, especially since Italy is no longer a threat. This means that the defenders of keeping up with the war have a stronger position than in OTL. De Gaulle has had the confidence of Reynaud since March 1939 (i. e. one more year than OTL) and has a much stronger military and political position to try this move of dubious legality (after this, Pétain cannot be left to his own devices, or he might try something stupid). In the end, De Gaulle manages to convince Lebrun that France does not have to seek an armistice, outsmarting Pétain. Remember that De Gaulle, after being Pétain's protegé and disciple during his youth, became his enemy after Pétain disdained De Gaulle's theories on armored warfare. I am sure that De Gaulle would have profited from this opportunity, given this set of circumstances.
 
And I also wonder how on earth are the Germans gonna invade the Soviet Union (as you implied) if they cannot conquer the whole of Spain...since there are shitloads of Allied division stationed there...on one hand it's the "Great war of independence", and on the other it'd seem really hard to see a complete German occupation of the peninsula, no matter how impressive their IOTL armies were...


The germans have very powerful reasons to attack the USSR -even beyond Hitler's lebensraum fantasies. In fact, the germans start Barbarossa not because they feel they need to destroy Ze Evil Empire, but because they see it as their only chance to win in the west.
 
The germans have very powerful reasons to attack the USSR -even beyond Hitler's lebensraum fantasies. In fact, the germans start Barbarossa not because they feel they need to destroy Ze Evil Empire, but because they see it as their only chance to win in the west.

Does this mean hitler will order his generals to concentrate on stregic objectives instead of just a huge, 3-pronged assault? Say, an early drive for the farmlands of Ukraine andthe oil fields of Baku later?

Without Africa or the Balkans to worry about (what's going on in Greece, BTW? Neutral?) there would be a good number of troops available, though it seems like it's going to be a huge drain, much as it was for Napoleon. Plus, the British could use Greece as a jumping off point to invade through the Balkans - if the Greeks are willing to jump in on the Allied side.

OTOH, Bulgaria is still there as a member of the Axis, right? It would be strange, but maybe *they* invade Greece.

You seemed to imply 1942 for an invation - would Hitler really do that with the U.S.A. on board? Or, do the Japanese not attack Pearl Harbor? Or...now this is interesting. Does Hitler not declare war on the U.S.? That could happen, if he knows he's going to have a 2nd front in the spring, and doesn't want the U.S. to enter into the fighting. Unlike OTL, his nose has been bloodied enough he's going to be more cautious, perhaps.

I'm glad I stopped doing these as a hobby; there's so much to consider it makes your hed spin :)
 
Does this mean hitler will order his generals to concentrate on stregic objectives instead of just a huge, 3-pronged assault? Say, an early drive for the farmlands of Ukraine andthe oil fields of Baku later?

Let's say he'll be more likely to listen to his generals' advice, and that the germans now really need that the russian campaign is as short and lighting as possible. Ironically enough, there still hasn't been a single "blitzkrieg" in the entire war, unless we count the polish campaign and the spanish invasio of Portugal.

Without Africa or the Balkans to worry about (what's going on in Greece, BTW? Neutral?) there would be a good number of troops available, though it seems like it's going to be a huge drain, much as it was for Napoleon. Plus, the British could use Greece as a jumping off point to invade through the Balkans - if the Greeks are willing to jump in on the Allied side.

OTOH, Bulgaria is still there as a member of the Axis, right? It would be strange, but maybe *they* invade Greece.

I'm working in Greece. In fact, Greece and the Pacific are now being the pains in the ass that are making the next update take that longer. Greece has greater chances to end up, not in the axis, but as an italian ally/puppet, now that Italy does not have the capability to reopen a front in the mediterranean.

You seemed to imply 1942 for an invation - would Hitler really do that with the U.S.A. on board? Or, do the Japanese not attack Pearl Harbor? Or...now this is interesting. Does Hitler not declare war on the U.S.? That could happen, if he knows he's going to have a 2nd front in the spring, and doesn't want the U.S. to enter into the fighting. Unlike OTL, his nose has been bloodied enough he's going to be more cautious, perhaps.


The US entrance in the war in Europe (if they enter), will be different than OTL.
 
From The Second World War, by Winston Churchill, 1951

...a collective sigh of relief could be heard in Britain and Spain when the news of De Gaulle’s appointment were made public. I cannot fathom what would have happened had Lebrun followed the constitutional rules and appointed Pétain instead. Fortunately for the stability of the French government, the top officers of the army and the navy quickly showed their allegiance to De Gaulle. The French government fled Bordeaux shortly before the germans arrived to the city, and set up quarters at Algiers in November 7, after a long and risky voyage through southern france and Spain. Algiers would become the de facto French capital until the liberation of Paris, a fact whose implications in the French position in northern Africa are starting to be felt today.

…german air attacks over southern England increased in their scale during the second half of 1940. However, most of the Luftwaffe was still commited to front support, and the RAF could easily throw back most attacks, even with many squadrons being deployed in Southern france and Spain. However, this didn’t spare many English cities, including London, from suffering some bombings, with which Hitler foolishly hoped to break our resolve.

…the French campaign was slowly degenerating into a race to arrive to the safety behind the Pyrenees. With winter already near, and the germans exhausted after suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties, they would not dare cross the mountains before March, and would give the allied powers time to fortify in Spanish territory. Unfortunately, Spanish politics, specially those in the anarchist field, were still unable to see the direct threat to their homeland and hampered the war effort with petty demands and childish political fights. It would not be until the germans were deeply into Spanish territory that the Spanish government would be able to get its act together.


Excerpt from New Dark Order: an historical summary on fascism (1922-1950); by Ernesto Guevara. Buenos Aires, 1971.

…the first steps of Ciano’s new regime were as slow and cautious as aggressive had been Mussolini’s first months. Ciano was a young man[1] and was aware that he would be an easy prey to any rival politician. Too insecure to not dare doing a soviet-style purgue, he was intelligent enough to downplay fascism’s more blatant elements of personality cult to surround himself with a team of both devoted friends and potential rivals. These men would do most of the government’s job, while he was happy to dictate general policies, act as the new Duce and keep indulging in his luxurious way of life.

…after the humiliation suffered at the hands of the allies, the Italian people was not willing to embark in another insecure imperial adventure, and Ciano, an anglophile that did not like Mussolini’s servile attitude towards Germany, was happy to please them. Anyway, the sorry state in which the Italian fleet was made any Italian involvement in the Mediterranean utopian before 1944.

…In 1940 and 1941 Ciano played straight his strict neutrality. Mussolini was allowed to exile into Switzerland, and Italy profited from trade deals with both sides. During these years, as shown in numerous films and novels, Rome became a world centre for hidden diplomacy and espionage.
But the fascist regime’s renounce to military adventures –symbolized by Vittorio Emmanuele’s resign from the Abyssinian crown and Haile Selassie’s return to Addis Abeba in September 1940- did not mean that Italy did not renounce to extend his insidious ideology, using anticommunism to spread its influence through the Balkans.

…Yugoslavia was torn apart by civil and ethnic strife since 1929, when King Alexander had set up a dictature to prevent the country from fracturing along ethnic lines. Despite his displeasure for the Italian regime, during 1940 the Regent Paul was forced to make more and more concessions to the Italian regime to appease the Croatian fascists in his country. As 1940 passed, Yugoslavia was already in the first steps to become a fascist country.
 
Stupid me, I always forget them. :p

[1] Ciano was born in 1903, so he was only 37 when he became Duce. He's too young to aspire to rule all of Italy alone.
 
Dr. Strangelove,

I just read the entirety of the TL to date. Great stuff, I must say. Indeed, I would argue you've made your alt-WWII more epic rather than less, as you seemed to be fearing earlier. The involvement of Spain and Portugal makes the conflict a wider one from the start. It also diminishes the extent to which this WWII looks like a replay of WWI (until you get to the Battle of Belgium). Plus, France gets to have a moment of glory, while hopefully the UK won't be as high on Churchill -- huge repurcussions for prestige down the line.

And of course the war beyond western Europe is very interesting. For example, the allies have not settled on unconditional surrendur, since they've spared Italy, it seems. Certainly, an Italian presence in Yugoslavia and the lack of German occupation of the Balkans will mean no instant Soviet occupation of the same.

And of course with so many more death likely to occur in the West, the Cold War's beginnings will be very interesting.

Speaking of which, I'm surprised no one's noticed this:

Excerpt from New Dark Order: an historical summary on fascism (1922-1950); by Ernesto Guevara. Buenos Aires, 1971.

<< Double - take >> Is that Che Guevara writing political history in 1971! Eegads, the history of Latin America will be interesting TTL.

Also, Churchill's history is dated 1951. OTL Churchill would be taking his second run at the PMship in 1951 (admittedly in late 1951). Again more hints of very different post-war settlements.

Lastly, if Spain really is wholly occupied by the Germans, wouldn't that wreak havoc on the poltical settlement enacted over the course of the '30s?

___________

Grammatical quibbles: These are minor, but I thought I'd point them out. Don't feel obligated to correct them -- no need for grammar Nazis when writing about WWIIs -- but just thought you'd like to know.

1) You some time over-use ''to''. For example, ''Churchill arrived to Bourdeux' should be 'Churchill arrived at Bourdeux.''

2) Also, you've used ''compromise'' to mean agreed. For example, ''the Allies compromised not to make separate peace with the Axis.'' It doesn't sound like any one of the allies disagreed, requiring them to create a new position from a negotiated give-and-take but that the Allies agreed to a certain position and official stated it.
 
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