No Spanish Civil War in 1936 (my new Timeline)

[von Adler]

A vital question here is where do the Belgians go when the British retreat? They should still have 500 000 men with fairly good supply situation. The worst problem for the Belgians were the German air superiority, which will not be nearly as bad in this timeline. The French are bound to have received lots of American planes, and the UK is building more planes than historically, so perhaps there were more deliveries to the meager Belgian air force? The stopping of the Germans in Belgium and the allied commitment might have swayed the Belgian King to attempt to fight on instead of sharing his soldiers' fate?

Right now they are covering the British retreat and probably being squeezed into a pocket in western Flanders. Will they be evacuated Dunkirk style? The French navy, not needing to protect the Med after Italy's exit from the war should be able to help a British navy bolstered by Med elements and emboldened by strong allied air presence over the channel. Perhaps one or three Belgian divisions are evacuated in good order with equipment, before Hitler realises they are not surrendering their army and Görings boasts that he can stop them from evacuating are false, and then another 200 000 or so Belgians evacuate Dunkirk style?

The French armour is in the same sector and the path through Normandie should still be clear, they are not cut off in this scenario.

Awesome update, I look forward to reading more!

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

The belgians will have to be evacuated since when Paris falls resisting north of the Seine is not an option. With the french navy covering the evacuation, I think that both the english and belgians will be able to salvage much of their heavy equipment (tanks, artillery, etc.) With the Luftwaffe busy in France and having suffered many losses, there will be no Battle of Britain.

In fact, in TTL, Operation Sealion will never ever be considered as a serious plan, beyond some vague declarations of nazi officials about invading England in a blurry and hipotetical future, after continental Europe is dealt with. Hitler's strategy will rely in forcing Britain to the peace table by taking down her continental allies one by one. He may think that, once mainland Europe is in nazi hands, the british will be disposed to negotiate, and that with Gibraltar lost, the italians would be willing to enter the war again.

Ironically, this strategy could make more sense than attempting to bomb Britain into submission: Churchill has been around for one more year than OTL, and Halifax still holds a lot of support in the Conservative party, and Churchill cannot count in any Dunkirk or Blitz mistique to hold popular support. If there's some serious british screwup in the war, there may be political troubles in the UK.

 

[Geordie]

The belgians will have to be evacuated since when Paris falls resisting north of the Seine is not an option. With the french navy covering the evacuation, I think that both the english and belgians will be able to salvage much of their heavy equipment (tanks, artillery, etc.) With the Luftwaffe busy in France and having suffered many losses, there will be no Battle of Britain.

So they'll remember to bring the guns back? That's a bonus over OTL. I can't work out whether no 'finest hour' is a good or bad thing...

Ironically, this strategy could make more sense than attempting to bomb Britain into submission: Churchill has been around for one more year than OTL, and Halifax still holds a lot of support in the Conservative party, and Churchill cannot count in any Dunkirk or Blitz mistique to hold popular support. If there's some serious british screwup in the war, there may be political troubles in the UK.

This suggests it may not be totally rosy for the UK.

 

[von Adler]

Actually, losing at least the heavy artillery was a blessing in disguise for the Brits - the 18pdr:s were decent, and the 4,5inch howitzers were adequate, but the 6inch howitzers, the 7,2inch and 9,2inch howitzers were COMPLETELY unsuitable for modern warfare. They took hours to set up.

If the Belgians can evacuate some machining tools and blueprints, perhaps the Spaniards can start to produce C.47 AT guns, or even T-13 SPATs? The C.47 was the best general issue AT gun 1940 (the French and Czech 47mm AT guns being equal or in case of the French even better, but not being general issue), and nothing compared to the T-13 in SPATs.

Churchill got a successful Africa campaign behind him, will be keeping France in the war, probably have little problem with subs and has FDR funneling him as much credit and equipment he can. Are the allies holding on to Narvik in this scenario? That would be another (albeit small) victory.

A bit ironically, but lend-lease might come as a help for the French and Belgians at first, having lost their respective motherland?

 

[Alratan]

Could you please develop a little further? Are you saying that by August 1940 the germans simply could not repair their damaged tanks because they were running out of spare parts? I had never read anything like this and it is very interesting. -and it could force me to either retcon the timeline or completely change the war.

The German problem with spare parts was persistent throughout the war. Because the Germans didn't standardise on single models it was a logistical nightmare - for example the German army had over 100 different models of trucks in use. This also meant that repairing things at the front difficult - a large proportion of aircraft damaged in the Battle of Britain had to be transported by road back to Germany to be repaired, for example.

As for the pilots, in OTL the Luftwaffe started the Battle of Britain in August 1940 and continued to the offensive for months. Even having suffered higher casualties during the battle for belgium, I think the Luftwaffe would still have enough pilots and ammunition to sustain air superiority over France, specially since the Battle of Britain has been cancelled until France and Spain are taken out of the war.

During the Battle of Britain, for example, the Luftwaffe started off with 1011 serviceable single engineed fighters at the beginning of August, by September it only 533, and by the 1st of October it had 275. This is with over a month to rebuild its forces. The British started off without the same number of fighters, but managed to maintain a force of around 700 consistently. The French were just hitting their stride on modern aircraft production when they were defeated in OTL, so the extra few weeks of production would help Allied strength in the air significantly.

If you map this loss rate onto your extended campaign in France (in actuality it would probably be worse as the Luftwaffe would also be facing French aircraft), you would reach the 533 level by the end of July and the 275 level by the end of August. This would mean that the Allies would have air superiority by the end of July and control of the air by the end of August.

On ammunition, it's worth noting that the Germans just about exhausted their ammunition when they invaded Poland, and they had only just rebuilt their stocks when they attacked France.

 

[Vault-Scope]

- a large proportion of aircraft damaged in the Battle of Britain had to be transported by road back to Germany to be repaired, for example.
The French were just hitting their stride on modern aircraft production when they were defeated in OTL,

On ammunition, it's worth noting that the Germans just about exhausted their ammunition when they invaded Poland, and they had only just rebuilt their stocks when they attacked France.

Sources, please?

 

[Alratan]

Sources, please?

BBC website for having to send aircraft back to Germany to be repaired.

Air University Review for a discussion of the French airforce and aircraft production.

For ammunition, its Karl-Heinz Frieser Blitzkrieg-Legende p. 32, via Wikipedia.

 

[bm79]

I've enjoyed this alot, and I hope the thread doesn't die

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I've enjoyed this alot, and I hope the thread doesn't die

Don't worry, this is just on hold until my exams end and I can contemplate having a life again... in mid-June, more or less.

Also, I'd like to say I am a complete, utter idiot who doesn't know how to properly research. *facepalms himself*

As you may have noticed, one of this timeline's main characters is the young general Enrique Líster. I knew he had studied in a military academy in Moscow between 1932 and 1935, and that he was a general in the republican side in early 1937. I then made the assumption -and wiki's article seemed to confirm this, so much for Wikipedia- that he had entered the army in the early 30's, gone studying in Moscow and steadily risen in ranks until he became a general, so I assumed that making him a general in november 1936 was not that far-fetched, especially after most officers in the army were purgued in the Madrid Trials. I was utterly, absolutely wrong.

Yesterday, I read the detailed article on the Galician Encyclopaedia on Líster's life and deeds. Not only was he not an officer in the army in July 1936 in OTL, but he joined the army -as a private!- in July 20. In the following months, he skyorocketed through the entire chain of command, becoming a colonel in October and a general in January 1937. Obviously, having him as a general in November 1936 with having no civil war -and thus no reason for him to join the army- is ASB.

I feel really embarrassed for this and I have only two options:

-Retcon the entire thing, forget about Líster and put Rojo Lluch instead of him. not only it would be confusing, but I have grown fond of Líster as some kind of crazy spanish Patton.
-Assume an earlier, minor PoD in 1930 where Enrique Líster, instead of immigrating to Cuba, joins the army. This would save me from retconning the entire TL, but would screw up my neat PoD in June 1936.

anyway, I have a month to think things up until I have time to write again.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Not only was he not an officer in the army in July 1936 in OTL, but he joined the army -as a private!- in July 20. In the following months, he skyorocketed through the entire chain of command, becoming a colonel in October and a general in January 1937. Obviously, having him as a general in November 1936 with having no civil war -and thus no reason for him to join the army- is ASB. .

Going from a private to a general in 6 months is almost ASB itself! Don't blame yourself; this sounds to me like one of those things that is impossible to expect when doing AH.

I mean, truthfully, who among us, if we saw a character in a TL - even a reasonably good military one - rocket up from private to general in 6 months, wouldn't think that the timeline writer was bordering on ASB? I'd surely wonder, though I'd try to give the benefit of the doubt it would be hard.

I feel really embarrassed for this and I have only two options:

-Retcon the entire thing, forget about Líster and put Rojo Lluch instead of him. not only it would be confusing, but I have grown fond of Líster as some kind of crazy spanish Patton.
-Assume an earlier, minor PoD in 1930 where Enrique Líster, instead of immigrating to Cuba, joins the army. This would save me from retconning the entire TL, but would screw up my neat PoD in June 1936.

anyway, I have a month to think things up until I have time to write again.

As I said, the only thing you neglected was that truth is sometimes stranger than fiction.

I don't thik a retcon would look that odd; The fact you'll be away for another few weeks might hel tthe retcon to be effective; would you just change all your posts? Can you cange posts that old?

Actually, you may have a third option, depending on the situation and why Lister was promoted so quickly. If he enters at the earliest possible outbreak of histilities after his arrival, and the Spanish see him performing some acts of bravery on the field, and he earns some battlefield commissions, then his rise *might* be enough to have him as a general by 1938 or the start of 1939. Not when you wanted, but it would be better and let you still have him around when the big guns start coming around. (Do they give field commissions in the Spanish military?)

I mean, if the man rose that fast in OTL, surely he could have risen fast in OTL; maybe not 6 months, but 9-12? Don't thik you have to write him out totally, given what he did in OTL.

 

[Lord Insane]

I don't thik a retcon would look that odd; The fact you'll be away for another few weeks might hel tthe retcon to be effective; would you just change al lyour posts? Can you cange posts that old?

No, you can't, sadly enough (for cases such as this).

 

[Lord Insane]

I'd say ask a moderator, but last time I asked Glen to do something I discovered that he had been gone for six months by the time I had sent him a pm...that and I think Max Sinister already got a life...

Ah, but Glen has returned!

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Ah, okay; yes, I'd better reread the timeline a bit to refresh myself, it's been a couple months since I read this one, too. (How do some of you keep these timelines straight when you read them? Especially if you go weeks between times you get on here like I do?)

But, you got the general idea - he can still be there by Jan. 1940 as a general.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Ah, okay; yes, I'd better reread the timeline a bit to refresh myself, it's been a couple months since I read this one, too. (How do some of you keep these timelines straight when you read them? Especially if you go weeks between times you get on here like I do?)

In my case because I'm the one writing it.

Truth is Líster's ascension is indeed almost ASB. I think I'll go with him joining the army in 1930 instead of going to Cuba and becoming a protegé of Rojo after coming back from Moscow. At the same time, his relationships with the communists could help him going up the chain. An interesting side effect is that in that case his name would be Liste. That was his original family name until he changed it to Líster in Cuba when he was fighting against Machado's dictature in 1931.

To add more to the general badassery of the man (even when his performance during the civil war was far less stellar than republican propaganda said), he is considered the only person to have served as a general in THREE different armies: the republican army during the civil war, and the Red Army and the Yugoslav People's Army during WWII. He also was a general in the Polish People's Army, but I think that was an honorary title.

 

[Goldstein]

I think I'll go with him joining the army in 1930 instead of going to Cuba and becoming a protegé of Rojo after coming back from Moscow. At the same time, his relationships with the communists could help him going up the chain. An interesting side effect is that in that case his name would be Liste. That was his original family name until he changed it to Líster in Cuba when he was fighting against Machado's dictature in 1931.

There's no need to complicate the point of divergence if you want to introduce Lister... I would suggest switching Lister with Rojo (as Maverick suggests), until the start of WWII; then making Lister enlist as a private in the war against Portugal, and starting his meteoric ascension there... that would be enough to have Lister ready for the great independence war, and to make him a "spanish Patton"

But it's your TL and I'll enjoy it anyway, so add another POD if you feel so.

 

[bm79]

As we say in New Orleans, "Whatevah!!" I don't know enough about Spanish history to think about commenting on Líster's proper place. The only reason I am even interested in that part of history is because I had to read Orwell's Homage to Catalonia in a 20th Century History course a few years ago and loved it and ended up borrowing it to a bunch of people as good reading. Substitute if you need to, but keep on truckin', dude!

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

The main reason I wanted Lister as a general in 1936 is because he was pretty much the only spanish general with a grasp of what mechanized war could be like. However, I think that Vicente Rojo can plausibly play that role too. He is not much older than Líster, and during OTL Civil War he was considered the greatest commander in both sides, and was the only republican officer respected by the national side.

So here is Enrique Líster's retconned life:

1907: Enrique Liste Forján is born at the village of Ameneiro in Galicia.
1920-1931: Liste follows the steps of thousands of galicians and immigrates to Cuba, where he contacts with communist ideology. In a trip back to Spain in 1925 he joins the Communist Party of Spain. In 1929 he is involved in the cuban revolutionary movement against cuban dictator Machdo and changes his name to Líster to avoid trouble to his family.
1931: When the Second Republic is proclaimed in Spain, Líster returns from Cuba.
1932-1935: Líster studies at the Frunze Military Academy of Moscow.
POD:
August 1936: Enrique Líster joins the spanish army. He has a personal motivation to join it since the Madrid Trials have shown that the army was becoming a liability for the survival of the republic. The Party also wishes to maintain a larger presence in the army, and nobody's better for that than this young soldier who has studied the most modern theories on warfare.
November 1936: Sergeant Líster serves honorably in the November Uprising and becomes a protegé of General Rojo Lluch, who was tasked to put down the fascist rebellion in Navarra.
1936-1939: Líster skyrockets in the spanish army chain of command, due to his political contacts in the Communist Party and his close relationship to Rojo. During these years, Rojo and him become outspoken proponents of a stronger alliance with France and a complete overhaul of the army doctrine. In 1938, Líster translates into spanish both Rommel and De Gaulle's seminal treaties on armoured warfare.
1939: With the Communist Party in disarray, Líster defects to the rising star of the trotskyite POUM.
January 1940: Colonel Líster, commanding an armoured brigade, destroys the portuguese army at the Battle of Elvas. General Rojo, commander of Army Group South, gives him his first star of general.
April 1940: Now the youngest general in the spanish army, Enrique Líster commands the 2nd division of the Spanish Expeditionary Force to France, which would play an important role in the Battle of France after beating the germans trying to cross the Meuse at Sedan.

This way, I don't have to retcon anything else in the timeline. Líster becomes a general in February 1940 rather than November 1936, the spanish army still modernizes and expands, and Rojo is the hero of the early parts of the war instead of Líster.

 

[Milarqui]

I have just finished reading your two stories (the one about the Perejil War and this) and I have to say that you write very well. I have always been interested in alternate history, and it's interesting to see that someone can portray Spain in a good international light. Please, keep writing!

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I have just finished reading your two stories (the one about the Perejil War and this) and I have to say that you write very well. I have always been interested in alternate history, and it's interesting to see that someone can portray Spain in a good international light. Please, keep writing!

Well, I was planning to post another update tonight, so thanks for both the praise and the bump.

 

[Archangel]

I have just finished reading your two stories (the one about the Perejil War and this) and I have to say that you write very well. I have always been interested in alternate history, and it's interesting to see that someone can portray Spain in a good international light. Please, keep writing!

Seconded!
Please keep the timeline running!