No Spanish Civil War at all

Niko Malaka

Well, I don't think a pro-soviet regime could survivie too much in Spain in this period. If France and the UK have the will, there is enough internal opposition (basically everybody who isn't the PCE/PSUC or from Negrin ad Largo Caballero's faction in the PSOE) to topple down any communist dominated government, and Moscow is too far to do anyuthing about it, in case they care.

And regarding the WWII. How would the lack of tactical learning by the germans (like air combat formations) affect the Battle of France. Could a less developed doctrine in the german side grant breathing room to the frenchs or those lessons taken from Spain are negligible in the whole picture of the battle?
 

Carl Schwamberger

Niko Malaka said:
...
And regarding the WWII. How would the lack of tactical learning by the germans (like air combat formations) affect the Battle of France. Could a less developed doctrine in the german side grant breathing room to the frenchs or those lessons taken from Spain are negligible in the whole picture of the battle?
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Maybe it means 20% higher losses for the German AF in the batlels of 1939-40? that might force a reconsideration of their training and aircraft production for 1941?
 

fasquardon

Niko Malaka said:
And regarding the WWII. How would the lack of tactical learning by the germans (like air combat formations) affect the Battle of France. Could a less developed doctrine in the german side grant breathing room to the frenchs or those lessons taken from Spain are negligible in the whole picture of the battle?
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Hmm. Wouldn't it affect Germany even earlier, in Poland? The invasion of Poland could quite easily turn into a more drawn out affair, particularly if the Germans look to be doing worse and Stalin figures he can delay the Soviet intervention to bleed the Nazis.

If there is no change to events outside until France is invaded (ASB really, but just for the sake of argument) it could well mean Germany loses the Battle of France. OTL it was an extremely close-run thing.

With regards to Germany invading Spain, I do find it amusing to think of Spain doing to Hitler what it did to Napoleon. It would be interesting how that would affect Spanish stereotypes.

fasquardon
 

Carl Schwamberger

Given all the other factors I cant see the conquest of Poland being delayed more than a few days. Aircraft/crew losses could be higher, but thats about it.

One point I am curious about. In 1939 & to mid 1940 it appears there was only one small group or squadron in the German AF with any experience in attacking ships. Please correct me if I am wrong here. That unit accquired all its combat experience in a few attacks off the Spanish coast. Absent that experience then when the "Kannalkampf" of August 1940 rolls around it is possible the GAF will be completely ineffective? Ditto for other efforts vs the British cargo and war ships off Norway and around Britain from April through October 1940. Most air crew found their techniques for attacking land targets useless vs moving ships & the Germans had to train nearly all units assigned to maritime missions in new techniques.

Without the small experience gained in 1938-39 would the ship losses off Norway been any different?
 

thaddeus

what other conflicts were boiling along at the time that might occupy the devil's idle hands? (or however that saying goes)

Abyssinia? China? (both seem far away for Germany to participate other than as arms merchant)

without the Spanish Civil War would there be an alliance between Germany and Italy, understand the point that too simple to call it a trial run for WWII but for Axis it kind of was?

status of relations between Spain and Portugal? wondering if authoritarian regime in Portugal a little isolated in the case of (more) liberal governments in Spain and France?

(or does Portugal draw closer to Germany and/or Italy? regardless of Salazar's personal feelings.)
 

Carl Schwamberger

thaddeus said:
what other conflicts were boiling along at the time that might occupy the devil's idle hands? (or however that saying goes)

Abyssinia? China? (both seem far away for Germany to participate other than as arms merchant)
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Good point. I cant see how any of those would substitute.

thaddeus said:
without the Spanish Civil War would there be an alliance between Germany and Italy, understand the point that too simple to call it a trial run for WWII but for Axis it kind of was?
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Nothing else approaches the same scale.

thaddeus said:
status of relations between Spain and Portugal? wondering if authoritarian regime in Portugal a little isolated in the case of (more) liberal governments in Spain and France?
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The Portuguese were pragmatic if nothing else.

thaddeus said:
(or does Portugal draw closer to Germany and/or Italy? regardless of Salazar's personal feelings.)
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The government was not a democracy, or a republic in the usual sense, but it had its liberal aspects. Overall the Portuguese had more in common with imperial Britain than with revanchist nazi Germany, or Facist Italy.
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
I remember Dr.Strangelove's No Spanish Civil War TL. He had Republican Spain joining the Allies and an Iberian Front developing.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Probably not the place to open a discussion on sin within the Church.

The more I consider the questions in my OP I cant see this outcome, of Republican victory as changing anything large in itself. The events of the next few years will depend on the decisions of the leaders & not any inherent nature of the government.
 

Deleted member 1487

Carl Schwamberger said:
Probably not the place to open a discussion on sin within the Church.

The more I consider the questions in my OP I cant see this outcome, of Republican victory as changing anything large in itself. The events of the next few years will depend on the decisions of the leaders & not any inherent nature of the government.
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I have to disagree. If the Republicans were in power in 1940 the French wouldn't feel the need to station troops on the border to deal with a potential nationalist threat, while the Germans wouldn't get all the help they got from Franco IOTL, beyond that do you really think the Germans would allow a Soviet allied Spain to sit there on their border before launching Barbarossa? Or might allow the British in after that? Plus I'm curious how the Soviets would handle the Spanish gold situation if the Republicans won.
 

Carl Schwamberger

wiking said:
I have to disagree. If the Republicans were in power in 1940 the French wouldn't feel the need to station troops on the border to deal with a potential nationalist threat, ...
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I wonder how many soldiers the French had on the border OTL? I dont remember anything from the several 1939 - 1940 OB I have. I remember they had extra Gendmere on the border to deal with the refugees & guarding the camps near Vernet.

... while the Germans wouldn't get all the help they got from Franco IOTL, beyond that do you really think the Germans would allow a Soviet allied Spain to sit there on their border before launching Barbarossa? Or might allow the British in after that? Plus I'm curious how the Soviets would handle the Spanish gold situation if the Republicans won.
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this assumes the Spanish government would be Soviet allied, or that the Soviet government would have anything to do with it. The OP here assumes no Spanish war at all & that seems to exclude significant Communist influence if a revolt is to be avoided. A lot more difficult to avoid a revolt if the extreme leftist parties are entering the government.

I wonder if anyone reading here has any information of French views of Spains military threat pre 1937? I recall that ten years earlier they were nominal allies in the Rif War.
 

Bad@logic

Carl Schwamberger said:
I wonder how many soldiers the French had on the border OTL? I dont remember anything from the several 1939 - 1940 OB I have. I remember they had extra Gendmere on the border to deal with the refugees & guarding the camps near Vernet.
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They raised a Chasseurs pyreneens demi-brigade that was initially supposed to be used for security on the Spanish border, but when the foreign troops of Italy and Germany withdrew and relations improved with Spain they withdrew it to the Alps. Apparently it wasn't a very well constructed unit, it had a lack in command elements like signals, logistics, medical supplies, ect. ect., and also insufficient firepower, according to the following link;
http://conflictuel.pagesperso-orange.fr/LGGtemp/1940 FRENCH ARMAMENT.pdf (page 7)

So presumably very limited soldiers stationed on the border.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Thanks for the link. Lots of info there. The Demi Brigade sounds like something to supplement the Gendmere without calling up the reservists.
 

thaddeus

Carl Schwamberger said:
The more I consider the questions in my OP I cant see this outcome, of Republican victory as changing anything large in itself. The events of the next few years will depend on the decisions of the leaders & not any inherent nature of the government.
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still think it was huge because Germany and Italy moved closer, think that had to happen somewhere or Italy might have remained neutral during WWII?
 

Carl Schwamberger

Dont know. I've read several books on the subject of 1930s events and sat through Klein-Albrandts lectures on this, but the factor of mutual goals in the Spanish war I dont recall in all that. I do know that Mussolini dithered over the question of war with France until the last possible moment. Some people claim British pressure had a lot to do with the choice.
 
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