No Spanish-American War

What if the USS Maine never sailed into Havana harbor or wasn't blown up by a supposed mine. Thus prevented a reason for conflict between Spain and the United States of America
 
Spain possibly sells the Philippines anyway but to the Germans... or France, whoever offers more. I don't really know what would happen with Cuba, it might be restored with 5 years. But Spain needs to keep the Cubans happy. Puerto Rico might as well remain Spanish until now.

The Pacific holdings might be sold as well. A bigger German presence in the Pacific.

I don't know much about how the Spanish-American War affected later revolutions but that might be butterflied away.
 
Both the Puerto Ricans and the Cubans were on and off fighting for Independence from Spain.

The US kinda of just hijacked the situation and made Cuba a puppet state till Castro and PR is well part of it till this day.

I’d think it was just a matter of time until the US stepped into the War but in the occurrence they didn’t for whatever reason I still see Cuba gaining independence sooner or later on its own or from help in Europe or Latin America.
 
What if the USS Maine never sailed into Havana harbor or wasn't blown up by a supposed mine. Thus prevented a reason for conflict between Spain and the United States of America

The war will happen anyways, the war was never about the independence of Cuba or Puerto Rico, It´s was USA flexing his military might and exercising their world projection power, the Maine is not even the excuse for the war, it´s was the rallying point, the ambitions and friction between USA and Spain started long before the explosion, at least since 1850.
 
The war will happen anyways, the war was never about the independence of Cuba or Puerto Rico, It´s was USA flexing his military might and exercising their world projection power, the Maine is not even the excuse for the war, it´s was the rallying point, the ambitions and friction between USA and Spain started long before the explosion, at least since 1850.

Or maybe just share your view about the possibilities of no-Spanish American War. How will this affect? He is clearly asking about that.
 
Both the Puerto Ricans and the Cubans were on and off fighting for Independence from Spain.

The US kinda of just hijacked the situation and made Cuba a puppet state till Castro and PR is well part of it till this day.

I’d think it was just a matter of time until the US stepped into the War but in the occurrence they didn’t for whatever reason I still see Cuba gaining independence sooner or later on its own or from help in Europe or Latin America.

Can't remember Puerto Rico fighting for independence. Don't you mean the Philippines?
 
Or maybe just share your view about the possibilities of no-Spanish American War. How will this affect? He is clearly asking about that.
The Only Way I could see that You don´t have a USA-Spain War Is having Cuba win his Independence during the Ten years War Maybe in 1872 or so, after the Havana massacre.

In any other way the constant headbutting between Spain, that see the USA as jumped up colony that want to exclude them from "their" hemisphere, and the USA, that see Spain as a decadent European power that is a threat to their Caribbean business with a well positioned forward base, will end in a war.


Edit: OR have Cuba Win their independence during the 1812-1820 Period of General Latino american Independence Movements. Even a Forced independence by the Mexican Empire and Gran Colombia is an option
 
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Lusitania

Donor
If we do have a successful Cuba/Puerto Rico independence till 1890. This would remove the war. Spain would sell its Philippines colony to someone with Germany being the likeliest purchaser although could be split between several countries. USA sphere of influence limited as far west as Hawaii
 
Cuba likely becomes independent anyway after a long drawn-out conflict on the island

Puerto Rico was fairly content as part of Spain IIRC.

Spain likely sells the Philippines and Spanish Micronesia to Germany or France. Probably Germany considering how interested in the archipelago the Germans were.

A German Philippines will keep the Japanese pretty busy during the Great War.
 
A German Philippines will keep the Japanese pretty busy during the Great War.

Maybe a German Philippines put Japan Outside the Great War.

As one thing is Take over a few badly defended island and the invasion of Tsingtao and another is a Amphibian take over Philippines, plus a lot of more ships from the Reichmarine will be assigned to the Pacific squadron, if they need to defend the Philippines
 
Maine explosion or no Maine explosion, there is no way for Spain to avoid war with the US in 1898 except by agreeing to immediate independence for Cuba. It's not like there could even be some face-saving "decent interval" phase of autonomy--that had been tried and failed. There is an obvious reason why the Spanish government didn't agree to independence--it would be tremendously unpopular, more so than even a losing war.
 

Marc

Donor
You all do know that there was a Philippines independence movement, which ended up being very bloody and costing the United States a great deal. In terms of casualties, the arguably understated official American report was that the conflict, "resulted in the death of over 4,200 American and over 20,000 Filipino combatants", and that "as many as 200,000 Filipino civilians died from violence, famine, and disease."
The Philippine-American War is one of those milestones in American history that we would rather not think about.

Now, given a backdrop of a fierce independence movement, who exactly is going to be a buyer of the Philippines?
Hmm, a much more interesting alternate history would be for the Philippines to achieve a successful independence by themselves, and the subsequent consequences thereof - huge I suspect.
 

Lusitania

Donor
You all do know that there was a Philippines independence movement, which ended up being very bloody and costing the United States a great deal. In terms of casualties, the arguably understated official American report was that the conflict, "resulted in the death of over 4,200 American and over 20,000 Filipino combatants", and that "as many as 200,000 Filipino civilians died from violence, famine, and disease."
The Philippine-American War is one of those milestones in American history that we would rather not think about.

Now, given a backdrop of a fierce independence movement, who exactly is going to be a buyer of the Philippines?
Hmm, a much more interesting alternate history would be for the Philippines to achieve a successful independence by themselves, and the subsequent consequences thereof - huge I suspect.
Oh I can see the Germans giving it a shot and the casualties might be worse but from strategic point of view worth it. Also the Japanese would clam our to get into Philippines as for casualties that just means more space for Japanese.
 
If we do have a successful Cuba/Puerto Rico independence till 1890. This would remove the war. Spain would sell its Philippines colony to someone with Germany being the likeliest purchaser although could be split between several countries. USA sphere of influence limited as far west as Hawaii

There is more chance Philippines winning the war of independence than Cuba. Cuba relied on the US army in OTL to beat the Spanish Army. Philippines did not. Cuba also had a smaller population, less tax base/wealth, smaller land area to defend, maneuver. Spain also expended more resources to retain Cuba than Philippines.

You all do know that there was a Philippines independence movement, which ended up being very bloody and costing the United States a great deal. In terms of casualties, the arguably understated official American report was that the conflict, "resulted in the death of over 4,200 American and over 20,000 Filipino combatants", and that "as many as 200,000 Filipino civilians died from violence, famine, and disease."
The Philippine-American War is one of those milestones in American history that we would rather not think about.

Now, given a backdrop of a fierce independence movement, who exactly is going to be a buyer of the Philippines?
Hmm, a much more interesting alternate history would be for the Philippines to achieve a successful independence by themselves, and the subsequent consequences thereof - huge I suspect.

Oh I can see the Germans giving it a shot and the casualties might be worse but from strategic point of view worth it. Also the Japanese would clam our to get into Philippines as for casualties that just means more space for Japanese.

Remember the casualty standpoint of US-Philippine war was based on US able to land troops uncontested for 6 month, from the point the Spanish surrendered Manila, and setup logistics in Manila before US started the war with the Rebels. This is due to the rebels treating the US as allies instead of an opponent 6 months before the invasion started.

It is like the British letting the Napoleon or Hitler setup for 6 months at Dover uncontested, once they have landed enough troops, logistics, fortify defensive positions let the French or Germans chose the time of attack.

Without the perfect situation, it is quite possible casualties would be higher or even a great power losing that war vs Philippines.
 

Lusitania

Donor
There is more chance Philippines winning the war of independence than Cuba. Cuba relied on the US army in OTL to beat the Spanish Army. Philippines did not. Cuba also had a smaller population, less tax base/wealth, smaller land area to defend, maneuver. Spain also expended more resources to retain Cuba than Philippines.





Remember the casualty standpoint of US-Philippine war was based on US able to land troops uncontested for 6 month, from the point the Spanish surrendered Manila, and setup logistics in Manila before US started the war with the Rebels. This is due to the rebels treating the US as allies instead of an opponent 6 months before the invasion started.

It is like the British letting the Napoleon or Hitler setup for 6 months at Dover uncontested, once they have landed enough troops, logistics, fortify defensive positions let the French or Germans chose the time of attack.

Without the perfect situation, it is quite possible casualties would be higher or even a great power losing that war vs Philippines.


Yes for Cuba to become independent we need a POD in Spain to allow it to happen. Such as republican overthrow of monarchy. Something to allow Cuba to become independent.

The problem with Spain being occupied or unable to do anything about its colonies is that it would invite Japanese who in the late 19th century were looking for ways to expand their empire.
 
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Personally, I think that Cuba will gain independence forcibly and from U.S. pressure and aid. Spain possibly sells Philippines to Germany or France. Most likely, Spain MIGHT be able to keep Puerto Rico.
 

Redcoat

Banned
Spain probably joins in WW1, what changes that makes IDK. Theodore Roosevelt is the kind of figure I don't suspect to somehow be irrelevant TTL. U.S. navy more shit probably
 
Theodore Roosevelt doesn't become President when McKinley is shot in 1901. By that time he is likely still in the Navy Department, at most a Cabinet member. Instead, some other generic Republican gets the nod and becomes President in 1901. Even if said person happens to have progressive leanings like TR, it's unlikely they will have his tremendous political and leadership skills. Depending on how he handles the coal strike, monopolies, and foreign policy, he could end up a one termer or perhaps get elected in 1904 but by a smaller margin than TR. In terms of how this impacts the US domestically, the coal strike could have turned out really bad: Roosevelt feared that if there was no agreement it would cripple the country. If he doesn't pursue trusts, then monopolies increase their control over the country to the point where they might be too powerful to stop. We could see "too big to fail" a hundred years earlier.
 
Maybe a German Philippines put Japan Outside the Great War.

As one thing is Take over a few badly defended island and the invasion of Tsingtao and another is a Amphibian take over Philippines, plus a lot of more ships from the Reichmarine will be assigned to the Pacific squadron, if they need to defend the Philippines

Japan and Britain were already allied and Japan would see an opening to expand. It'll be messier for Japan, but they'll be in the war.

I don't think Japan would get the whole of the Philippines after the war however. There might be a partition of the archipelago.
 
Luzon gets bought by Britain or US(via US/UK supporting the revolt then duping them), that is what the US wants even before the war and Britain had once had control of some of it during Diego Silang revolt - since US annexed Hawaii and opened up Japan, Buying luzon is the next possible step, perhaps in exchange for money and help for Spain securing Visayas.

One of TL's talk about that.
 
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