No Spanish-American war

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The Russo-Japanese War instead becomes the American-Japanese War and unlike the Russian navy the American one is fully capable of sailing around the world to fight a war. A few years early and against a better opponent I think Japan will lose. Also should WWII not be butterflied away it will remove a lot of the mistaken notions that Japan and the US had about each other's military and industrial capability in OTL.

Er, where is the US navy going to be based, coaled and supplied? The British will presumably side with Japan as OTL. They don't even have a shitty deathtrap like Port Arthur to fall back on.

US is getting stomped in this scenario. No question.

 

[juanml82]

Gavrilo Princip's father hears a different set of gossip in 1898. As a consequence, he's in a different mood and ends the day playing with his son five minutes more than in OTL. Butterflies accumulate and, in 1914, Gavrilo decides to pack a sandwich before trying to assasinate the Archiduke. As a consequence, he goes to eat to a park instead of a cafe and never gets the chance to kill him.

It is a "hardcore" understanding of butterflies, of course.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

I think it's unlikely that Spain would willingly sell any of their colonies.

Spain claimed the Marshall Islands in 1874, and sold them to Germany in 1888. After ceding Guam to the U.S. in 1898, Spain sold the rest of Micronesia to Spain in 1899.

 

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Spain sold the rest of Micronesia to Spain in 1899.

USA surely?

 

[Superman]

Well, Cuba, the Philippines and possibly Puerto Rico achieve independence on their own, albeit with either a longer and bloodier fight or just given increasing autonomy by Spain. Without too much of an interest in the East Pacific without the Philippines, the USA may also not have as much tension with Japan.

 

[Tizoc]

Spain sold the rest of Micronesia to Spain in 1899.

USA surely?

Germany. Which in turn lost it to Japan in 1914.