No Spanish-American war

[Historyman 14]

The war never happens. What would happen?

 

[Hoist40]

Without the Spanish American War the US would not own the Philippines and Guam. This makes major changes to War Plan Orange since the relief or reconquest of the Philippines and Guam were a major part of this plan.

The US Navy does not concentrate so much of its efforts on building a fleet to challenge the Japanese in the Western Pacific.

The Japanese don't fear the US in the Philippines sitting on their southern trade routes. Though they might try to grab it at some point from either the Spanish or an independent Philippines

If the US still has a Asiatic Fleet it has no home port and uses British, Chinese, Japanese ports as its resupply and repair bases as it did prior to the US taking the Philippines.

The US puts its defense in the Pacific at its most western point on a Alaska, Hawaii, Panama line

In the Atlantic Puerto Rico is an independent country at some point though it might not be until much later. Cuba is also independent but probably earlier then Puerto Rico. The US might get some arrangement for a base in these two places but more probable it will be in the US Virgin Islands

 

[Tredecimus]

The First Philippine Republic may last longer than OTL. Also, a certain Chinese nationalist will definitely grab the opportunity to get Philippines' support for a liberation of China.

The other colonial powers however...

 

[Stonewall]

I'd think butterflies would change much of the Second World War, even. There may not necessarily be a pacific campaign.

I think another colonial power would buy or seize the Philippines. France or Germany are popular choices in most TLs.

 

[Lalli]

Without the Spanish American War the US would not own the Philippines and Guam. This makes major changes to War Plan Orange since the relief or reconquest of the Philippines and Guam were a major part of this plan.

The US Navy does not concentrate so much of its efforts on building a fleet to challenge the Japanese in the Western Pacific.

The Japanese don't fear the US in the Philippines sitting on their southern trade routes. Though they might try to grab it at some point from either the Spanish or an independent Philippines

If the US still has a Asiatic Fleet it has no home port and uses British, Chinese, Japanese ports as its resupply and repair bases as it did prior to the US taking the Philippines.

The US puts its defense in the Pacific at its most western point on a Alaska, Hawaii, Panama line

In the Atlantic Puerto Rico is an independent country at some point though it might not be until much later. Cuba is also independent but probably earlier then Puerto Rico. The US might get some arrangement for a base in these two places but more probable it will be in the US Virgin Islands

Cuba and Philippines probably gain independence but there not be any reason why Puerto Rico would become independence. Puerto Ricans were quiet pro-Spanish government. It is very possible that without Spanish-American war Puerto Rico is autonomous area of Spain.

Anyway, Pacific campaign would be quiet different without Spanish-American War, perhaps us have totally different WW2.

 

[Reader347]

If the US still has a Asiatic Fleet it has no home port and uses British, Chinese, Japanese ports as its resupply and repair bases as it did prior to the US taking the Philippines.

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Did the US have gunboats and bases on Chinese rivers before they got the Phillipines?

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

Part of the cause for the war was America's desire for overseas territories to be used to project naval power, a general imperialism, and a weird desire among the media for a popular war. US wouldn't be willing to accept using British naval stations as a long term solution. I think we'd likely see increased attempts to purchase overseas territories from the European powers and possibly a revival of Commodore Perry's idea of Formosa as an American possession.

Having only been taken from China by the Japanese in 1895 the US can free Taiwan from the Japanese under the claim of liberation (just as they did with Cuba) and then claim naval bases as payment. The Russo-Japanese War instead becomes the American-Japanese War and unlike the Russian navy the American one is fully capable of sailing around the world to fight a war. A few years early and against a better opponent I think Japan will lose. Also should WWII not be butterflied away it will remove a lot of the mistaken notions that Japan and the US had about each other's military and industrial capability in OTL.

 

[Hollis Hurlbut]

Puerto Ricans were quiet pro-Spanish government. It is very possible that without Spanish-American war Puerto Rico is autonomous area of Spain.

This is simply wrong. The Puerto Rican nationalist movement was well underway as early as the first decade of the 19th century, and it followed the classic pattern of creole-led independentist movements throughout Latin America. Puerto Rico was no more pro-Spanish than any Spanish colony in the new world. The island was rapidly approaching independence at the end of the century. Indeed, it had arguably achieved independence with the Charter of Autonomy, ratified in 1897. Independence was prevented only by the U.S. occupation.

 

[Chris Triangle]

This is simply wrong. The Puerto Rican nationalist movement was well underway as early as the first decade of the 19th century, and it followed the classic pattern of creole-led independentist movements throughout Latin America. Puerto Rico was no more pro-Spanish than any Spanish colony in the new world. The island was rapidly approaching independence at the end of the century. Indeed, it had arguably achieved independence with the Charter of Autonomy, ratified in 1897. Independence was prevented only by the U.S. occupation.

Undoubtedly true, but the island largely avoided the intensity of rebellion and violence that occurred in Cuba thereby making it seem to a casual observer that it was, well, more stable.

But would Puerto Rico have settled for substantial autonomy to the point of commonwealth status, or would it have insisted on independence outright? If so, when?

 

[Hoist40]

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Did the US have gunboats and bases on Chinese rivers before they got the Phillipines?

They had gunboats but no real base. They had treaty rights in China but the Asiatic Fleet got supplies and repairs from other countries bases or Chinese ports.

That is a big reason why Admiral Dewey went to the Philippines, to grab some territory for a base. However it proved easier to grab territory then to defend it. Once the US got the Philippines they never had the plan and especially resources to defend it so they never built the major naval base that was hoped for and instead just improved some of the Spanish bases

 

[redlightning]

The Spanish Empire is a little bit larger than it was OTL. The US does not enter the Pacific War with Japan because it does have the Philippines as a territory. Spain still becomes a fascist power during the 1930s and territories like Cuba and Puerto Rico are also part of this system. The Japanese are granted basing rights on Spanish territories in the Pacific which makes there conquest of the region even more successful. The British, Dutch, an French do lose their colonial possessions in the Pacific and China's coastal cities succumb to Japanese invasion.

I do think some sort of mishap between a Uboat and an American merchant ship would spark World War II in the Atlantic. The US might even declare war on Spain and invade Puerto Rico and Cuba during the war to prevent them being used as basing for the Third Reich's submarine operations. Spain is also part of the initial American beach landings in western Europe.

 

[matashowski]

I don't think that spain would still become fascist, at least by the same route. From what i can tell, The spanish-American war (Or the Disaster of 98, as it was known) put Spain in an incredibly dark place. They were essentially stripped of the vestiges of their empire, and it produced a whole generation of writers. All i mean is, it was a profound event in their history, and would likely create butterflies we cannot fathom. There are theories that the SPW eventually lead them to fascism, but i don't know enough Spanish history to argue one way or the other.

 

[elkarlo]

The Spanish Empire is a little bit larger than it was OTL. The US does not enter the Pacific War with Japan because it does have the Philippines as a territory. Spain still becomes a fascist power during the 1930s and territories like Cuba and Puerto Rico are also part of this system. The Japanese are granted basing rights on Spanish territories in the Pacific which makes there conquest of the region even more successful. The British, Dutch, an French do lose their colonial possessions in the Pacific and China's coastal cities succumb to Japanese invasion.

I do think some sort of mishap between a Uboat and an American merchant ship would spark World War II in the Atlantic. The US might even declare war on Spain and invade Puerto Rico and Cuba during the war to prevent them being used as basing for the Third Reich's submarine operations. Spain is also part of the initial American beach landings in western Europe.

During the 30s Cuba and the PIs would undoubtedly become independent.

 

[MonAngel]

Having only been taken from China by the Japanese in 1895 the US can free Taiwan from the Japanese under the claim of liberation (just as they did with Cuba) and then claim naval bases as payment. The Russo-Japanese War instead becomes the American-Japanese War and unlike the Russian navy the American one is fully capable of sailing around the world to fight a war. A few years early and against a better opponent I think Japan will lose. Also should WWII not be butterflied away it will remove a lot of the mistaken notions that Japan and the US had about each other's military and industrial capability in OTL.

Will British Empire allow it or US will confront British-Japanese alliance? As I understand Japan was main British Ally in Pacific and ally to contain Russians in Pacific.
Also will this means more US-Russian Alliance?

 

[Nanwe]

If there is no 1898 it is unlikley for there to be a WWII down the line.

But alright, Puerto Rico and Cuba were slowly going to be given autonomy by the Spanish government, there plans like that since the 1870s and even by 1898 the conservatives were agreeing with it, especially the moment Cánovas dies/is murdered. As to Philippines, no idea, the Spanish government never cared all that much about them and had them mostly for prestige purposes, Puerto Rico and Cuba were considered as Spanish as the Canary Islands.

Any government that gave in to Cuban independence will be quite tarnished by it. However, in the last elections before the Disaster, in 1898, Puerto Rico and Cuba of the 16 and 30 MPs respectively in the Courts, they returned 13 Autonomists (linked to the Liberals) and 3 Unconditionals (linked to the Conservatives) in PR and Cuba returned 21 MPs from the Autonomist Liberals and 7 from the Cuban Constitutional Union (union of conservatives and anti-autonomy Liberals). Sadly, I don't know if there ever was a large vote rigging in either provinces as it did in the Peninsula, so I couldn't say what was the amount of support they really had, but in any case since 1890 Spain had universal suffrage.

The disaster unleashed a storm of reformist movements, not all of them democratic nor even pacific. There were calls for an end to election rigging and the turno before 1898 and indeed the silvelistas within the Conservatives as well as the Liberal's left were demanding a reform of the system to make not just look democratic but being so. So I suppose reform will be more smoother, and of course, without the disaster there won't be the finger-pointing between government and military leading to the enormous amount of problems Spain suffered in the 20s and 30s.

On the other hand, Spain will remain slightly less developed economically, the return of the Cuban upper classes with their money and knowledge of American new production techniques allowed for some very nice boom years in Spain of fast industrialization beyond Catalonia. Furthermore, it is likely that the Catalan cultural renaissance will continue without developing a strong political side as the Catalan upper bourgeoisie will think that Spain can defend their mercantile and textile interests in Cuba, and they will remain as a Liberal constituency. Meanwhile the Basque bourgeoisie will remain a Carlist or Conservative constituency as Arana's racialist Basquism will not grow beyond Biscay's rural masses and we'll see Basque dying, most likely.

 

[Ariosto]

I think we'd likely see increased attempts to purchase overseas territories from the European powers and possibly a revival of Commodore Perry's idea of Formosa as an American possession.

Having only been taken from China by the Japanese in 1895 the US can free Taiwan from the Japanese under the claim of liberation (just as they did with Cuba) and then claim naval bases as payment. The Russo-Japanese War instead becomes the American-Japanese War and unlike the Russian navy the American one is fully capable of sailing around the world to fight a war. A few years early and against a better opponent I think Japan will lose. Also should WWII not be butterflied away it will remove a lot of the mistaken notions that Japan and the US had about each other's military and industrial capability in OTL.

The United States is not going to fight a war for colonial territory anywhere without a prior pretext that is palatable to its citizenry, least of all a war on an entirely different continent; the Spanish-American war at least had the benefit of occurring almost entirely within the America's with the liberation of Cuba as a pretext, with the Philippines being a sideshow. The Filipino-American War was then able to be argued as nothing more than the squashing of an insurrection, but even that proved to be unpopular.

So no on Formosa or violent acquisition of overseas territories.

The most I can see is the acquisition of Samana Bay (can't remember if that is the actual name) on the coast of China, which Secretary of State Hay had actually negotiated for. However the Japanese complained as they had their own designs on the location, and with the Philippines in American hands, the United States did not feel the need to pursue the matter to the detriment of relations with Japan.

If the United States needs a Naval Base in the Far East, that would be the best place to look.
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[juanml82]

I don't think there would be a WWII. Butterflies alone can easily prevent Franz Ferdinand assassination.

Now, that said, Japan is still likely to expand its influence in the Pacific and the USA will try to counter it based on purely commercial reason. But if the USA doesn't have a foothold in the Pacific, Japan doesn't need to attack them. So, while an ATL embargo might still happen to stall Japanese expansion and, depending on the situation in Europe, Japan might still try to conquer the Dutch colonies in the Pacific, the USA might not be in a political situation to stop them.

 

[miguelrj]

How likely is it that Spain ends up selling the Philippines during the course of the 1st half of the 20th century? And to whom?

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

How likely is it that Spain ends up selling the Philippines during the course of the 1st half of the 20th century? And to whom?

I think it's unlikely that Spain would willingly sell any of their colonies. It's more likely they'll be "sold" as part of a treaty to minimize their loss after some foreign power has already captured them through force. After the Americans I think the Germans or the Japanese are the most likely candidates for taking the Philippines. Both wanted to expand their power and holdings in the region.

 

[unprincipled peter]

ok, I'm going to need some education. why does a different asian theatre butterfly the Franz F assassination (which of course was WW1, which I guess affects WW2). Sure, anything different could change something minor which changes something major. But what's the thinking?