No Spanish-American War

Was it inevitable that even if the Maine had not exploded, and there had been no other similar incident there would have been anything like the Spanish-American War of OTL?

If so, why?

If not, what difference would it have made?
 
Interesting. So, if Spain had managed to avoid the Spanish American War, what outcomes?

Hmmm.

Spain will likely lose Cuba sooner or later to indigenous revolutionaries.

On the other hand, it hangs onto Puerto Rico, Guam and the Phillipines, as well as its African holdings.

Political and economic effects? A lot of Spanish Capital remains tied up in Cuba and the Phillipines. No late industrialization, economic dislocations.

Hmmm
 
I'd wonder if Spain might eventually face war with, say Japan over the Philippines. As for Puerto Rico, would it really be worth retaining retaining the island after Cuba's independence? In any event, the US navy would be somewhat (no Guantanamo base, etc.) weaker sáns the Spanish-American war, so Cuba might conceivably become something more than a quasi-colony.
 
No Philippines greatly increases American isolationism.

Cuba however, by its location and economy is 'doomed' to American economic domination, no invasion might lessen it, but as J.Q. Adams said, Cuba is an apple that once cut short of the Spanish branch can only fall to American gravity.

Hopefully a little less leverage might save Cuba a handful of corrupt plutocrats and 50+ years of communist austerity. I can see Cuba becoming a financial crisis for Spain, leading to domestic unrest and a liberal government letting the island go in the early 1900s. Loyal Porto Rico will be kept is only to retain a Spanish presence in the Caribbean.

Although fun, I really doubt Spanish Philippines into the 20th century equals a Japanese invasion, anymore than Dutch military weakness did prior to the specific events of 1941. Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria are all plenty to focus on.

Who knows, if you get a similar situation to OTL 1941, the Philippines might become a Japanese target, leading Spain to side with the *Allies but ultimately it falls colonial pullout following a decade of brutal guerrilla warfare.
 
Interesting. So, if Spain had managed to avoid the Spanish American War, what outcomes?

Hmmm.

Spain will likely lose Cuba sooner or later to indigenous revolutionaries.

On the other hand, it hangs onto Puerto Rico, Guam and the Phillipines, as well as its African holdings.

Political and economic effects? A lot of Spanish Capital remains tied up in Cuba and the Phillipines. No late industrialization, economic dislocations.

Hmmm

I do not think so. Philippines was more controlled by the locals than Cubans during this time. Remember, U.S.A. never fought a land battle versus Spain in the Philippines. It was all Filipinos in the land battles versus Spain.

Cuba needed land support and naval support while Philippines only needed naval support which was a choice between U.S.A, Germany or any other European power. It is just that the Philippine President chose U.S.A. as a trusted ally based that U.S.A. was a democratic nation and had no historical colonial past at that time. A trust which was well misplaced because of the ambitions of a colony near China.

The Philippine Revolt versus Spain would have been successful with or without the Americans as long as Philippines had naval support from another naval power.
 
  • Cuba will win their war of independence by themselves. Without US troops, it likely becomes less corrupt, as well as less anti-American. Both Batista and Castro will be butterflied away.
  • Philippines will beat the Spaniards but won't get independence. One of two things will happen:
    1. Germany buys the Philippines from Spain right before they lose.
    2. The Philippines will get carved up when the Spaniards get kicked out. The occupying powers will be Britain, France, Germany, and Japan.
  • Puerto Rico stays Spanish until modern day. It is now an overseas territory of the EU and has the euro as its currency. :p
  • Guam gets sold off with the other Spanish Pacific islands.

  • United States stays isolationist and laissez-faire.
    1. The country stays focused internally as there is no war to heal the wounds of the Civil War.
    2. No Philippines means less involvement with Asia and no fighting in Cuba means less involvement in the affairs of Latin America.[
    3. Without the war, Teddy Roosevelt doesn't get anywhere near the White House (the establishment hated him). He only got to be VP because he was a war hero, and it was hoped a VP spot would be a dead end for his career. Hence, the progressives stay out of power and the USA remains libertopia.
 

Hnau

Banned
Something I wrote for 99 Red Balloons, an old project of mine:

Hnau said:
In the previous chapter we established that in Dr. Pershing’s World the first subtle historical differences compared to ours began in the early 1890s in Central Russia. It is interesting to note however that the first great historical change in the other timeline occurred off the coast of Cuba, in the western hemisphere. The USS Maine of the United States Navy never became famous in our sister timeline, the few paper reports and photos our commission could find show that it was sent to Havana in 1898 to protect American interests in Cuba during the War of 1895. The battleship had its intended effect on preventing atrocities against American citizens in Havana and sending a firm message to the Spanish government in Madrid, but there would be no explosion or loss of the life of those in the ship as in our timeline. In late February the American President McKinley continued his aggressive posturing by ordering the North Atlantic Squadron to the Gulf of Mexico and other ships to just off the coast of Lisbon and Hong Kong. Fearing war with the United States of America, the Cuban colonial government took two steps that had been demanded by President William McKinley: it ended forced relocation from homes and offered negotiations with the independence fighters. The truce was rejected by the rebels and the war continued. The American press joined American businesses in support for the revolutionaries’ cause, but no conflict would emerge. Meanwhile the rebels were becoming quickly exhausted of funds, weapons, and men. In August 1899 the independence movement’s leaders accepted the offer to negotiate with several specific conditions. That the USA would mediate a peace treaty was one of them. President McKinley gladly accepted the role as peacemaker and negotiated the Treaty of Washington in the year 1900 which ceded to Cuba and Puerto Rico complete self-autonomy. Outside of a naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Spanish jurisdiction over defense and foreign relations and nominal membership of the Spanish Empire, the Cubans and Puerto Ricans are granted the right to control their own domestic affairs.

Though affairs in the Caribbean basin pacified and normalcy returned to the region, the absence of a Spanish-American War in the history of Dr. Pershing’s World would shift the course of history for many nations. Cuba, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Spain and the United States of America quickly diverged from their historical tracks in our own timeline. The Cuban independence movement would resurge in the decade of the Great War and eventually the island would acquire full independence, but would do it without the assistance of a foreign power. After the end of the War of 1895, the Spanish government quickly shifted its military forces and funds towards the Philippines in hopes that it could directly manage at least its Pacific colonies. Filipino revolutionaries would submit to a Cuban-style peace treaty in 1904 which established Filipino jurisdiction over their domestic affairs and nothing else. Spain avoided losing its colonies and maintained its importance as an imperial power, but at an enormous cost which left the country bankrupt. In the United States, although it was not completely or directly responsible, it is possible that the lack of an African-American military performance at this crucial period of American history put the African-American civil rights movement years behind compared to our own timeline. The nonexistence of black participation in a military adventure with their white countrymen could have nudged the other United States of America in the direction of the future failures in race relations that awaited it.
 
  • Cuba will win their war of independence by themselves. Without US troops, it likely becomes less corrupt, as well as less anti-American. Both Batista and Castro will be butterflied away.
  • Philippines will beat the Spaniards but won't get independence. One of two things will happen:
    1. Germany buys the Philippines from Spain right before they lose.
    2. The Philippines will get carved up when the Spaniards get kicked out. The occupying powers will be Britain, France, Germany, and Japan.
  • Puerto Rico stays Spanish until modern day. It is now an overseas territory of the EU and has the euro as its currency. :p
  • Guam gets sold off with the other Spanish Pacific islands.

It is one of possible outcomes that Philippines becomes another European colony but highly doubtful.

Please do note that at this time, Philippines was more capable in landwarfare than Cuba was versus Spain. When U.S. declared war on Spain by April of 1898 and interfered both in Cuba and the Philippines, the land war was over in the Philippines by May 1898 without any American land interference. Cuba had to rely on American land reinforcements and had to wait for Spain to sue for peace by July of 1898. By this time, Philippines had already a 100,000 standing army and complete control of the Philippines with the exception of the walled city of Intramuros.

In order for any European invasion or super power at that time to be successful, it needed to surprise attack the 100,000 Filipino standing Army much like how the Americans did it in OTL. The only thing that made the surprise attack successful was the Filipinos treated the Americans as allies until the point of time the Americans attacked a part of the Filipino army at San Juan del Monte bridge while Filipinos were celebrating their newly won independence.
 
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