No Spanish-American War effects on WWI

The PoD is for Spain to put down or prevent the rebellions in Cuba and the Philippines without giving up territory. How much does it affect WWI if Spain has its remainder colonies? And will they feel more confident to join a faction in WWI?

How does it affect the USA or Germany?
 
I think Spain remains neutral. Their remaining colonies, which would be Cuba and Puerto Rico, Guam, the Philippines and a few coastal colonies in North Africa, would be of no consequence to the British, the United States, and France unless the Spanish were leaning towards or openly siding with the Germans. At this time, King Alfonso XIII and his government are more friendly with Britain both politically and dynastically. Queen Ena is the granddaughter of Queen Victoria. (yea I know so was the Kaiser, but Queen Ena was more "British.") With the French on their northern border, Portugal who sided with the Allies to their west, and what ever colonies be it Africa and or the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific, all within striking distance of more powerful Allied forces, there is no reason for them to do anything but remain neutral, or possibly lean towards the Allies as did Portugal.
 
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Without some meaningful political concessions, I'm not sure that'd resolve Spain's problems. The 1890's rebellion in Cuba followed unsuccessful revolts in preceding decades, which suggests that the island would remain a source of lingering tension. It could be a distraction, but even without that, Spain probably wouldn't want or need to concern itself with issues in central and eastern Europe. So long as France leaves them alone on the continent and nobody else is eyeing their colonies, they don't have much to worry about.
 
I very much doubt Spain could keep the Philippines. The Philippines was a powder keg even in the 1820s! That tells you something about the Philippines, of the long standing tension and resentment towards Spain. (For good reason.)

The Philippines seem far more likely win its own freedom, or it be sold part by part by Spain. (Luzon to America, or the British, the Visayas to France, or Germany, etc.)
 
I very much doubt Spain could keep the Philippines. The Philippines was a powder keg even in the 1820s! That tells you something about the Philippines, of the long standing tension and resentment towards Spain. (For good reason.)

The Philippines seem far more likely win its own freedom, or it be sold part by part by Spain. (Luzon to America, or the British, the Visayas to France, or Germany, etc.)
I can see this as well. The Philippines were making much better progress in their independence movement against the Spanish than were the Cubans. Because the Spanish-American War was about Cuba, the US was committed to giving them their independence after the war was over. The Philippines were not even part of the "causes" or "ultimatum" that led to the war. The US kept the Philippines for expansionist and Imperialist ideas. McKinley would soon propose the Open Door Policy in China, and the Philippines as a base for US economic and military interests in this area of the world, (Having recently annexed Hawaii and taking over Guam on the way to the Philippines, made sense. Unfortunately for the US, the Philippine rebels under Aguinaldo, feeling betrayed, simply turned their military efforts for independence from Spain over towards the the Americans. The rebellion continued for a few years more and cost the US military lives in subduing the Philippines.
 
The only that really changes is in the Pacific. Japan might view Spanish interests unravelling in the Philippines as a good investment and kick the Spanish out. Whether they opt for a friendly regime or try to annex the place is a bigger question. This might butterfly the Russo-Japanese War.

Likewise, Germany might try and strongarm Spain into selling the colony and getting it on the cheap.
 
The only that really changes is in the Pacific. Japan might view Spanish interests unravelling in the Philippines as a good investment and kick the Spanish out. Whether they opt for a friendly regime or try to annex the place is a bigger question. This might butterfly the Russo-Japanese War.

Likewise, Germany might try and strongarm Spain into selling the colony and getting it on the cheap.

Japan might not need to fight the Spanish over the Philippines. Should/when the Filipinos kick Spain out, it come under Japanese influence easily enough.
 
Without some meaningful political concessions, I'm not sure that'd resolve Spain's problems. The 1890's rebellion in Cuba followed unsuccessful revolts in preceding decades, which suggests that the island would remain a source of lingering tension. It could be a distraction, but even without that, Spain probably wouldn't want or need to concern itself with issues in central and eastern Europe. So long as France leaves them alone on the continent and nobody else is eyeing their colonies, they don't have much to worry about.

That is all up to your PoD. I am looking for options.
 
Well, without the Spanish-American War, there won't be a need for the Dick Act, resulting in a National Guard over the poorly funded and barely trained State Militias

from the wiki
The Dick Act included $2 million for National Guard units to modernize equipment, and permitted states to use federal funds to pay for National Guard summer training encampments. The National Guard in each state was also required to carry out a uniform schedule of weekend or weeknight drills and annual summer training camps. In addition, the War Department agreed to fund the attendance of Guard officers at Army schools, and active Army officers would serve as inspectors and instructors of National Guard units. The War Department also agreed to organize joint Army-National Guard exercises and training encampments.[20]

In return, the federal government gained greater control over the National Guard. The President of the United States was empowered to call up the National Guard for up to nine months to repel invasion, suppress rebellion, or enforce federal laws. Guardsmen had to answer a presidential call or face court-martial. States had to organize, equip, and train their units in accordance with the policies and procedures of the regular Army. If Guard units failed to meet Army standards, they would lose federal recognition and federal funding.[21]
 
I very much doubt Spain could keep the Philippines. The Philippines was a powder keg even in the 1820s! That tells you something about the Philippines, of the long standing tension and resentment towards Spain. (For good reason.)

The Philippines seem far more likely win its own freedom, or it be sold part by part by Spain. (Luzon to America, or the British, the Visayas to France, or Germany, etc.)
The Philippines would be sold part in part by Spain, it was just a matter of time, I think the Spanish could maintain its rule in Visayas but Mindanao sold to Germany and Luzon to America.
 

Marc

Donor
No conflict with Spain effectively alters American political history. As in no Theodore Roosevelt*, which could easily lead to no Wilson Presidency - and that to a plausible American neutrality during the First World War.
As for Spain, they were overdue for a revolution, and that could easily make for a quite different general European war if you think on it.



*Which raises the question of whether there would any Rooseveltian Presidency, i.e. no FDR.
 
Idk, the war is bound to bring america closer to the allies by dint of trade (even without wilson pushing loans in such). American arms manufactures in particular were making money hand over fist.
 
Obtaining Spain's former colonies as territories began the process of integrating the United States into mainstream world politics. Before too long, the US was already intervening in Central America and the Caribbean, began participating in coalition efforts to stamp out the Boxer Rebellion in China. All of a sudden, they had interests that they needed to address, something the US never had before beyond their own frontier in North America. Even obtaining Hawaii and Alaska was still on the fringes of world affairs.

The US had a policy of neutrality towards European affairs, with respect to the Monroe Doctrine. Plus, they had all this new territory they had acquired from France that they had to explore and settle. That was enough to occupy American energy. But once the frontier was closed, all that energy wasn't just going to evaporate, the US wasn't just going to rest on their haunches. The US was still hungry. She knew in her heart she was a heavyweight, but an untested one. The Spanish American War was in a way, the Americans' step up, to see if they can truly hang with the great powers of Europe. Spain was essentially a hand picked opponent, one that the US felt reasonably certain they could defeat and look strong doing it. You could say that the Spanish American War served as the first step in the US rise to prominence, one that happened during the Great War. It couldn't be ignored anymore. This was the future for America that Roosevelt wanted. The right set of circumstances set him up to implement that vision.

So here, Roosevelt doesn't get his chance. He doesn't get attached to McKinley's ticket because he isn't a war hero. But all this does is delay American expansion and immersion into global politics. They're eventually going to see Japan rise to prominence after having been completely backwards just under 50 years prior. Or what's happening in China when the Europeans think there's weakness to exploit. Seeing Africa get carved up without themselves getting part of the action.

I'm suggesting that Spain crushes any revolts in Cuba thoroughly, all the while the Maine doesn't blow up to provide an excuse. The US is left looking longingly through the shop window while Spain manages to hold onto Cuba and Puerto Rico for the moment, but finds the Philippines succeed in gaining Independence, with Japanese assistance, bringing the Philippines into the Japanese sphere of influence.

The best the US can do is wait for unrest to flare up in the Caribbean, but without ever getting a "smoking gun" reason to intervene directly, they instead tacitly aid independence movements to succeed and gain independence from Spain around the time of the Mexican Revolution, creating a sphere of influence of it's own. I don't believe much of this will have too much effect on what's going on in Europe. Some form of the Balkan Wars will still break out and see the Ottoman Empire lose the rest of it's European territory. The Japanese still find a way to start a war with Russia to take Port Arthur, but instead of suffering a massive naval defeat like Tsushima, they manage to fend off the Japanese awhile longer, but are unable to hold onto Port Arthur. Russia is still defeated, but nowhere near to the levels of OTL's defeat to Russia, so thethe probl Russia encounters later on like the 1905 Revolutions is kicked down the can. This perception of Russia weakness isn't there to encourage Germany and Austria to careen to war with them, causing them to play a much more careful and deliberate game despite Wilhelm's best wishes. Italy won't leave the Triple Alliance. Meanwhile, with the loss of the Philippines in a long and bloody war, Spain decides to sell Guam, and sell it to Britain as a matter of convenience; Spain is loathe to see Japan gain Guam in the wake of them defeating Russia and assisting Filipino independence, while the British do not want to see Germany gain a useful territory in the Pacific. The US is never a consideration in this transaction.

1914 will come and go, seeing the competing armed camps or Europe staring each other down while a much more careful way of dealing with the Balkans while dealing with a Russia that isn't visibly close to the brink itself, and there is no war at this time. But no one is kidding themselves, a war is still a grim possibility. All the while, if there is still a Mexican Revolution of sorts that happens, the US, still a regional power with no real teeth in dealing with Europe, would likely involve itself more closely with the proceedings. Could a 2nd Mexican-American War flare up in full, especially if someone like Roosevelt is in office? Could the US see this a means to finally expand while Europe, still the center of world politics, is preoccupied with urgent European matters?
 
I think the best resolution for the Revolutionary war in the Philippines is for Spain to avoid war by selling Luzon to the Americans and the Sultanates to the British.
 
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