No Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

I have a question for fasquadron: Could the lack of an Afghanistan invasion have motivated the Soviet Union to militarily intervene in Poland during the Solidarity crisis in the early 1980s? After all, without the invasion of Afghanistan, the Soviet Union would have both troops and international goodwill to spare for such a military intervention.

There are others who know more about the Polish situation, but I am very dubious that the Soviets would choose to intervene.

And the Polish leadership were better liked than Amin and trusted more, reducing pressure on the Soviets to go in and do it themselves.

fasquardon
 

Geon

Donor
The ISI had been funding Islamic militant groups in Afghanistan since the mid 70s and the US had been supporting those same militant groups for only a little less time. While these militants may not be as radical as the OTL Taliban, some sort of alt-Taliban is going to be a powerful player in the fate of the country.



The US was very happy to back doctrinaire Marxists when those Marxists turned against the Soviet Union - witness Somalia, where the US, Romania and China (and others) backed the Said Barre regime because the Soviets chose to help the Ethiopians beat back the Somali invasion of their country. Also witness China and Yugoslavia. Neither superpower really cared much about ideology. (The Ethiopians were not very Marxist when the Soviets chose them over the more Marxist Somalis, the Soviets liked the far-right Argentine junta better than their supposed Marxist brothers in Cuba and with Cuba itself, Castro wasn't much of a Marxist when his poor relations with the US made the USSR think that supporting him could be a fun way to stick a finger in the eye of the Americans...) There was lots of hypocrisy on both sides.



I have never heard of this one, despite plowing through a few hefty papers and monographs on what the Soviets were thinking when they went into Afghanistan. Everything I've read has agreed that the motivations were "we're losing this friendly neutral to the US, if we don't act we're doomed!"

Did any of your internet sources quote actual sources (preferably sources that aren't Americans drowning themselves in paranoia in the 80s)?

fasquardon

As far as sources what I read on the net were admittedly secondary sources who said they had heard Hackett say this in an interview regarding his book. How true this is again I leave to your judgement.
 

Ak-84

Banned
There's lots of overlapping stuff. ISI's pet project to undermine Kabul with jihadis had existed since 1974 due to the previous regime's Pashtun nationalism but the Americans didn't care partly because why would they but also due to relation souring things like the Pakistani nuclear programme. Carter certainly wasn't a fan but then the Shah fell so the CIA was quite keen to get in with Pakistan and they were quite keen for some dollar to counter what they say saw as sectarian provocation from the north. As Taraki killed more and more people, Carter slowly agreed to send men and money.

That is inaccurate. Firstly, The ISI in 1974 did not exist as a fully independent agency, it was still partially a clearing house for information for other agencies, the task for what it had been formed and which explains its name and although it had entered the intelligence game, it was involved in Europe and N America . More to the point in the 1970's, the point person on Afghan affairs in the Gov of Pakistan was the Inspector General Frontier Corps. (IGFC) Secondly, in 1974, there were no "Jihadis".

The then IGFC, was General Naserullah Babur and as he recalled

35. So how was this stint?

We did well. During this period there were a large number of bomb blasts in the nwfp with Ajmal Khattak and Azam Hoti sitting in Kabul indulging in anti-Pakistan speeches and activity. In order to convey a message to Sardar Daud that we could play the same game and to assess the training level of the resistance an operation was initiated in Panjsher Valley in August 1975. The operation was a total success. The Afghans suffered heavily in men and equipment and Daud sought peace and accepted the Durand Line. He initiated an agreement in mid-1976. However, the formal agreement was not signed in view of Zia’s take over.

36. When did Pakistan enter the Afghan scenario as a party, which was assisting the anti-Daud insurgents in Afghanistan?

In October 1973 while I was serving as ig fc an Afghan named Habibur Rahman (Shaheed) came and contacted me about setting up a resistance movement in Afghanistan with active military assistance of Pakistan. I conveyed the same to Mr Bhutto, who accepted my proposal in view of the changed situation in Afghanistan and asked me to organise training of Afghans.

37. What was the political and military aim of the Pakistani govt of that time?

From 1947 till that date all Afghan governments had generally not been friendly towards Pakistan. They raised the bogey of Pakhtunistan but refrained from acting against us in 1965 and 1971 when at war with India because of the political environment after the Liaquat Bagh meeting. There were a large number of bomb blasts. Mr Z.A Bhutto was very clear even in 1973 after Daud's coup. An analysis of the regional environment was undertaken, highlighting the break in the Afghan system of continuity; the impending generational change in the leadership in the USSR and China (Chou had died). The inability of continuity/stability in Iran with removal of Shah of Iran from the scene. Being the last of the party ideologues it looked likely that the ussr leadership may take the opportunity to move once more and invade Afghanistan, a step towards the fulfilment of Peter the Great’s will (1777). Thus we established the base of Afghan Mujahideen resistance in 1973.

38. What type of assistance was provided to the Afghan resistance and which Pakistani agencies were involved?

We gave them basic infantry weapons, some specialised training in how to conduct guerrilla warfare under an ssg team until it was discontinued 05 July 1977 by Gen Zia, who lacked the strategic vision.

39. At what stage did the ssg enter the scene as the principal agency that trained the Afghan resistance?

They (a team) imparted training in the belief that they were training Frontier Corps personnel (all trainees were enlisted in the Frontier Corps before training)

40. What was the isi role in Afghanistan in the period 1974-77?

It was a top secret affair and the isi had no role. The secret was shared between Mr Bhutto, myself, Aziz Ahmad and the then Army Chief Tikka Khan. This was for obvious reasons. The Foreign Office could with, nonchalance deny if raised at un or any other forum.

41. Who were the pioneers of the anti-Daud Afghan resistance?

These were Ustad Rabbani, Hikmatyar, Ahmad Shah Masood and a host of others who came to Pakistan after October 1973.
In short Pakistans policy was to payback the Afghans for their support of Pashtunistan and also tell them that fostering unrest could happen both ways.
 
I wonder about the Soviet Union's motivations in invading Afghanistan. I have heard from various sources on the internet that the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 by the Soviet Union was meant to "bloody the troops" preparatory to an invasion of NATO a few years later. (the same way Hitler hoped for a war in Czechoslovakia to bloody German troops before he started the real war.) It is said this came from John Hackett who wrote the well known A History of World War III.

If not Afghanistan would they have used another "testing ground?"


Thats bullshit. USSR knew they couldnt win a war in the US. And its also likely pollitical motivated to claim that (you know, portraying the commies as warmongers).
 
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