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What if the Soviets had not invaded and annexed the Baltic States and waged the Winter War with Finland?

For all his cunning, Stalin was a moron as far as this was concerned. By attacking Finland, he pretty much guaranteed Finland would become an enemy later, while the occupation of the Baltics generated a lot of anti-Soviet hatred the Nazis were able to exploit later.

So what if Stalin hadn't waged war against his neighbors but attempted to draw them into some kind of defensive alliance against the Germans instead?
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