No Soviet Aggression 1939-40

WI Stalin had declined a slice of Poland and not attacked the Baltic states or Finland.

I assum that Hitler, being who he was, would still invade. The Nazis would have been a hundered miles close to Moscow. I assum that Finland would NOT have joined Nazi aggression

By the way what would have happened to the Baltic States?
 
WI Stalin had declined a slice of Poland and not attacked the Baltic states or Finland.

I assum that Hitler, being who he was, would still invade. The Nazis would have been a hundered miles close to Moscow. I assum that Finland would NOT have joined Nazi aggression

By the way what would have happened to the Baltic States?

Lithuania likely would have allied with Hitler. That was the original plan.

As for the other baltics, no idea.
 
As regards Finland, they were close to Germany and icy with the Soviets. They might still allow Germany to go through their territory as IOTL, which would likely lead to a Soviet declaration of war on them... as IOTL
 
Why would Stalin agree to allow German armies to move right up to his border? Why agree to teh pact in the first place if he is getting nothing from it? On the contrary allowing Germany to annex all of Poland puts the USSR in a much weaker position vis a vis Germany. I just can't imagine Stalin agreeing to this. Maybe he chooses not to invade the Baltic states or Finland or annex part of Rumania in order to try and keep them as buffer states and because of international diplomacy.

If the Germans start a war in Poland though I can't see Stalin not getting his pound of flesh.
 
Stalin was not the kind of person to refuse risk-free annexations, especially if the alternative would be an aggressive Germany controlling territory adjescent to the 1938 Soviet border. For Stalin to decline, he would need to perceive some sort of risk in making his move. I can think of three ways of this happening:

1) Germany completely abstaining from most of its OTL annexation spree and leaving the areas between itself and the USSR alone (which in turn means a Europe changed beyond recognition),
2) Germany expanding its influence without causing a war with the west, which would force Stalin to start a war in order to acquire those areas,
3) Germany attacking Poland, Britain and France joining in and beating Germany before it can occupy too much (Stalin may find the prospect of getting the post-purge Red Army into a war with Britain and France by attacking Poland undesirable).
 
As regards Finland, they were close to Germany and icy with the Soviets. They might still allow Germany to go through their territory as IOTL, which would likely lead to a Soviet declaration of war on them... as IOTL

Finland was as "close" to Germany as it was to Britain or France, in most ways. And all of those three were "icy" to the Soviets, too, at least before Molotov-Ribbentrop.

Just being "close" to Germany will not make Finland likely to endanger its neutrality and allow Lapland to be used as a launch pad against the USSR. IOTL, the Winter War kickstarted the Finnish "warfare state" and made Finns really doubt the continuing existence of their nation in 1941 and beyond - for good reason.This would not have happened ITTL.

But if Germany still conquers Norway, it is in a position to control Finnish trade, through the Baltic as well as via Petsamo or Norway. In 1941-42 this is a question of life and death to the Finnish people and thus to the government. So if Germany wants to squeeze the Finns, Finland would be trade-wise dependent on the good graces of Sweden or the USSR. And if Germany intimidates Sweden into abandoning Finland, too, keeping Finland out of the German camp would be up to Stalin delivering the Finns enough food and other necessary goods to keep the Finnish state running.

Would Stalin see the wisdom in that? To treat a Finland trying to hold on to neutrality as something like an ally even while in his heart of hearts he thinks Finland would really want to join the Germans and jump him.

There are many ways, you see, that Stalin's belief of Finland being likely to become a German ally could be and was a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 
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How about Germany invades Latvia and Estonia and made them part of the Axis. Got this while playing Iron Cross (A HOI Game)

A. They would have had their local populations expelled or exterminated and recolonized by Germany.

B. The Soviets would have gone firmly into the Allied camp and also cut back on Germany's grain and fuel.

This PoD, especially in regards to Poland, is impossible.

The Soviets can avoid Finland if the Finns accept their initial territorial demands.
 
The Soviets can avoid Finland if the Finns accept their initial territorial demands.

If the Soviets wanted to keep Finland out of the war, they should have never made those demands in the first place. Any such aggressive behaviour pushes Finland closer to Germany, as did the Soviet refusal to allow the Finns to seek a neutral defence pact with Sweden.

The Winter War ended in Finland giving up a lot more land to the USSR than Stalin demanded in the fall of 1939. This did neither scare Finland into deeper neutrality nor stop Soviet expansionist policies in the area.
 
Hitler is actually pretty unlikely to invade in this scenario, as he needed the M-R Pact to (as he saw it) give the democracies a means to stab Poland in the back the way they did the Czechs and keep face. No Stalin alliance, no WWII in 1939, Germany economically melts down before it can start a war.
 
Hitler is actually pretty unlikely to invade in this scenario, as he needed the M-R Pact to (as he saw it) give the democracies a means to stab Poland in the back the way they did the Czechs and keep face. No Stalin alliance, no WWII in 1939, Germany economically melts down before it can start a war.

I am still assuming a non agression pact
 

Cook

Banned
Hitler is actually pretty unlikely to invade in this scenario...
The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact was signed on 23 August 1939, just nine days before the invasion of Poland commenced. The date of the invasion had already been set, the Wehrmacht were deployed in their form up points for the invasion, commanders had been briefed and ammunition distributed. The invasion was going ahead.
 
I think the Soviet thinking was that the Brits and French wanted him and Hiterl todestroy each other in a war.

He kind of expected that there would be a long war in the West weakening both both the Democracies and the Nazis.
 
I am still assuming a non agression pact

Which in this case isn't happening as this is why the Soviets invaded Poland to start with.

The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact was signed on 23 August 1939, just nine days before the invasion of Poland commenced. The date of the invasion had already been set, the Wehrmacht were deployed in their form up points for the invasion, commanders had been briefed and ammunition distributed. The invasion was going ahead.

Ah. In that case the Nazis probably wind up in a war with the UK and France and without a guarantee of a neatly neutral front in the East, which means 1940 likely goes very horribly wrong for them.

I think the Soviet thinking was that the Brits and French wanted him and Hiterl todestroy each other in a war.

He kind of expected that there would be a long war in the West weakening both both the Democracies and the Nazis.

And if France had had a general worth his rank, he would have been right.
 
The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact was signed on 23 August 1939, just nine days before the invasion of Poland commenced. The date of the invasion had already been set, the Wehrmacht were deployed in their form up points for the invasion, commanders had been briefed and ammunition distributed. The invasion was going ahead.

Nevertheless, the start date had been set for August 26, and it was postponed - so late that a few point units did not receive the countermand and moved forward anyway in the first hour of that day.
 
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