No Soviet 1942 Kharkov offensive

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Kharkov

WI this doesn't happen? Let's say soviets judge their and German capabilities more accuretly and decide not to press the offensive. say their winter offensives come of somewhat worse.

Slantz claims Soviets lost some 277.000 people (some 171.000 KIA, MIA, POW, rest WIA). This weakened the sector of the front on which Geman southern offensive would fall soon, with predictable results. If these troops are available to soviets what happens?

German offensive starts as epr OTL, likely a bit sooner. Germans advancefast but things get complicated later. While it's not likely soviets will be able to stop them before Stalingrad these troops will slow the advance even more than they did in OTL. Additional soviet forces still just bang on the flanks as epr OTL, but while they are driven off it takes time and casualties.

Option A. Germans realize they are to weak to seize both stalingrad and Cauccassus so they don't split their force. Cauccassus was priamry objective so that will ramain top priority. Some forces are left onthe flanks to deal with this,with less of a dismisive view they are German rather than allied. Soviets retain a core of better trained troops and those are used for counter offensive. Depending on when and where it happens it's likely resemblewhat happened post Uranus with german evacuation from the south. Gemansare bloodied but not as badly as OTL and there is no psychological shock of entire army being wiped out.

Option B. offensive develops as per OTL but keep adding time for each step. so the battle for stalingrad begins in September, not august with weakend Germans. German advance likely stalls by mid/late october simplydue to units bing burnedup. withadvancenot as threatening soviet'sdon't see the need for smallercounter offensivesclose to the city (Kutluban series) and start planning operations further back sooner. With heavier soviet resistance on approaches some thing like OTL bridgehead jumping points is likely to remain, though maybe not in exact same places. Uranus-like operation is launched either sooner or stronger, likely both. with Soviets relativelystronger vs Gemans they might actually cut off cuccassus force, but not neccessary.

thoughts'
 

Deleted member 1487

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Kharkov

WI this doesn't happen? Let's say soviets judge their and German capabilities more accuretly and decide not to press the offensive. say their winter offensives come of somewhat worse.

Slantz claims Soviets lost some 277.000 people (some 171.000 KIA, MIA, POW, rest WIA). This weakened the sector of the front on which Geman southern offensive would fall soon, with predictable results. If these troops are available to soviets what happens?

German offensive starts as epr OTL, likely a bit sooner. Germans advancefast but things get complicated later. While it's not likely soviets will be able to stop them before Stalingrad these troops will slow the advance even more than they did in OTL. Additional soviet forces still just bang on the flanks as epr OTL, but while they are driven off it takes time and casualties.

Option A. Germans realize they are to weak to seize both stalingrad and Cauccassus so they don't split their force. Cauccassus was priamry objective so that will ramain top priority. Some forces are left onthe flanks to deal with this,with less of a dismisive view they are German rather than allied. Soviets retain a core of better trained troops and those are used for counter offensive. Depending on when and where it happens it's likely resemblewhat happened post Uranus with german evacuation from the south. Gemansare bloodied but not as badly as OTL and there is no psychological shock of entire army being wiped out.

Option B. offensive develops as per OTL but keep adding time for each step. so the battle for stalingrad begins in September, not august with weakend Germans. German advance likely stalls by mid/late october simplydue to units bing burnedup. withadvancenot as threatening soviet'sdon't see the need for smallercounter offensivesclose to the city (Kutluban series) and start planning operations further back sooner. With heavier soviet resistance on approaches some thing like OTL bridgehead jumping points is likely to remain, though maybe not in exact same places. Uranus-like operation is launched either sooner or stronger, likely both. with Soviets relativelystronger vs Gemans they might actually cut off cuccassus force, but not neccessary.

thoughts'

Well, much depends on how these soldiers are deployed and what tactics they use on the defensive. They may make the Soviets overconfident and stay put, making them very easy targets for the German's Case Blue offensive. They are lost anyway, but delay the German advance, probably preventing the Caucasus from getting invaded. Ultimately the Germans still make it to Stalingrad, but are more tired from the effort to get there. Butterflies could make things very different by the time that battle starts. The Germans could be bogged down in the streets, but as a full army group and are able to hold the Vistula with more men or they take the city early with no resistance and hold the Vistula with many more men. At that point the Germans probably hold until the following year to go after the Caucasus, but over winter fight the Soviets in the region. There is no successful Soviet counteroffensive and the Germans are ready to go for round 2 in a much better logistic situation. However the Soviets have suffered far less over the winter and are better dug in. I don't think the Germans manage to make it too far, but neither are they ripe for a Soviet counterattack. In 1943 the Soviets counterattack, but are facing more Germans, who are more experienced and hold more Soviet territory. They have more strategic depth and probably are able to retreat properly.

In the meantime Operation Mars goes off badly and the fighting probably shifts northward somewhat. It pushes the Soviet counteroffensive back significantly and may mean the Western Allies are the first to overrun Germany and push the Iron Curtain further East. It also probably means a nuke for Germany, maybe Dresden, maybe Nuremberg.
 
If the troops sit put, they where vulnerable to a pincer attack by the 6th army and 4th panzer army anyway and might have actually been MORE roughly handled than otl

Paulus was stupid in combating the offensive, and it took hitler taking the situation by the stones in order to generate the correct tactical positioning and to crush the attacking forces... this probably delayed case blue properly advancing by at least 2-3 weeks, plus it cost 6th army and 1st panzer army a lot of unnessary casualties

so my guess is the Germans do better in case blue if they attack first, and capture the 28th and 40th armies against the don (since their positions where vulnerable to encirclement, since Stalin didn't allow them to line straiten after the winter
 
I'd hate to be the general to pitch the idea for scrubbing the offensive. Stalin would probably purge me for cowardice. It's pretty hardwired into the military brain to commit to an immediate offensive when your enemy has lost a major battle to turn defeat into a route. Historically this was the right thing to do. However the German army in WWII time again defied this pattern. Everytime they lost a big one they would put together an aggressive defense very quickly. The Germans were eventually crushed without ever being routed. The Western allies also attempted an offensive after the Bulge which got nowhere. And that was after years of war when they should've known better.
 
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