I think that, whatever your views, you can agree that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was generally a bad idea. American foreign trade dropped by 50% and unemployment went from 6% to 17% in the year that followed it. It pretty much took a bad situation, and made it worse, at the worst possible moment. Interestingly, what Hoover asked Congress for was a reduction in tariffs, not an increase.
So, lets say that Hoover doesn't sign the bill and it dies when it goes back to Congress. Or, another possibility, is that the bill actually does what Hoover wanted: lower tariffs. According to
wikipedia, some have theorized that the stock market crashed was directly due to people worried abou the tariff. I don't know.
So, we have a likely weaker Great Depression.
- Does Hitler still come to power?
- Does Roosevelt still get elected?
- etc?
