No Sino-Soviet split

Wolfpaw

Banned
The U.S.-China relationship isn't as strong, and you will see a more united Communist world during the Cold War. In the end, however, there would be some sort of split. China was never comfortable with having Moscow in charge after Stalin died, and even then. Khrushchev's revisionism was a convenient excuse for Mao and Zhou and Deng to pursue their own goals.

The bigger question is what happens that doesn't cause the split. Either the Soviets stay Stalinist (say Molotov, Malenkov, and Kaganovich manage to oust Khrushchev in '57) or Mao somehow gets magically replaced with someone who prefers Khrushchev's line. Now those are some big butterflies, my friend.:D
 
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The U.S.-China relationship isn't as strong, and you will see a more united Communist world during the Cold War.

This would be a powerful change in itself. Do Soviet/Communist policies or decisions change now that a truly united front is established. Do the Chinese factor into or become more involved in places not seen? Greater Chinese involvement in Cuba? Middle East? Africa? South A? ... I don't see them taking more than a crucial backseat to the USSR but if they are more directly involved in those places then ... it does have some ripple effects into the 1980's. Does Chinese investment actually manage to float the USSR in the end? Are the Chinese able to support and keep the global ideological battles going? Or are the current economic Chinese power directly tied to events in the Sino split?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Current Chinese economic forces are in many ways directly tied to the split. Without Moscow as the epicenter of ideology, the Chinese were free to experiment with market economics. This lack of economic flexibility would mean that Chinese investment in the Soviet Union would hardly be enough to keep the latter afloat.

I cannot forsee significantly increased Chinese involvement in parts of the world outside of East Asia; the Soviets were determined to run the show and (prior to the split) regarded China as their bully-boy in East Asia and that was it. Again, even before the split the Soviets were afraid of the Chinese getting too influential. You may very well also see the Soviets basically forbidding China to go nuclear, which in itself could lead to a split.

You will also see a severe cooling of Soviet-Indian relations if China stays in line with the Kremlin, which could spawn some interesting butterflies in Southern Asia.

In the end, though, a gradual parting of ways was inevitable. The Chinese had their own goals, the Soviets theirs. Both wanted to be top-dog and both were fragile and uncomfortable bedfellows even in the best of times.
 
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What if the split never happens? How does history unfold?

It's my opinion that while all this stuff about Stalinist Orthodoxy and the Secret Speech may have come into it, there was a much more fundamental reason for the split: Socialist Internationalism had been baloney, probably since the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Russia (well the USSR or Russian Empire) and China are two nations marked to be Great Powers, even superpowers, by thei tremendous populations and resources. Great Powers, expecially those right next to each other, usually have at least some competing interests. Communist solidarity was brief, unnatural, and partly imagined by the frightened west. Great powers, regardless of ideology, pursue independent foreign polcies.
 
Well, democratic Great Powers often find enough points of agreement and are politically habituated enough to compromise to cooperate fairly often on the international scene. Dictatorships, especially cult-of-personality ones, OTOH...any disagreement on policy becomes a slight to the dictator, and will not be forgiven. Frankly, for a close and lasting Soviet-Chinese alliance, you need either a common menace (the Fascist US and surviving Third Reich Alliance scenario, or, for a milder one, surviving S. Chinese KMT state backed by US nukes), a much more democratic version of Communism, or an actual merger of the two states (say in a China liberated from Japan by Soviet forces scenario) which would probably require a more liberal form of Communist rule to work even if Russian fears of the tail wagging the dog could somehow be overcome.

Bruce
 
I have mentioned in othe threads that had Mao died in the late 50s before the split, the Sino-Soviet bond would have lasted longer because his designated successor was Liu Shaoqi, aka the Chinese Khruschev.

I can very well see the alliance lasting a decade longer at least and gradually cool off in the Brezhniev era rather than go through a dramatic split.

Without the split and the damage Mao had on the Chinese economy there could well be an invasion of Taiwan by the mid '70s.
 
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