Teejay
Gone Fishin'
Please forward me to some TL's regarding this, the POD I was proposing that is that the Administration of George W Bush decide not to invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime. Because they come to believe there was no concrete evidence that linked Saddam Hussein's regime to Al Qaeda.
Instead the administration are convinced that both Iran and Hezbollah had a role in 9/11 terrorist attacks. The administration would undertake efforts to overthrow the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, namely by actively supporting opposition groups.
It also could be possible that both the US and Israel both jointly invade Lebanon and crush Hezbollah. Regarding Iran such efforts would probably stop short of actual war, however if say the United States claimed some of their sailors were captured by Iran or said they found evidence of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Maybe the administration would declare war on Iran with the intent of overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran.
If a war with Iran went ahead, I expect I only limited support from other Western Countries. Britain and Australia perhaps, however that might be a long short. However such a war would follow a period of the administration undermining the regime by any means necessary. Such a war would be a lot more tougher than the Second Iraq war was with at least the IRGC fighting to the bitter end. Also more conversational than the Second Iraq War was in OTL. The war would be winnable for the United States, although it would last a while and there would be a considerable number of casualties.
However once the regime is defeated and a democratic government is established, a large section of the Iranian populace which opposed the rule of the Mullahs would welcome the Americans as liberators. The whole post war situation in Iran would be a lot more different than say it was in Iraq where people hated Saddam Hussein much more than the Americans.
There would be localized conflicts particular in the Kurdish majority regions and Balochistan for example. However nothing like the protracted insurgency which occured in Iraq in OTL.
Instead the administration are convinced that both Iran and Hezbollah had a role in 9/11 terrorist attacks. The administration would undertake efforts to overthrow the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, namely by actively supporting opposition groups.
It also could be possible that both the US and Israel both jointly invade Lebanon and crush Hezbollah. Regarding Iran such efforts would probably stop short of actual war, however if say the United States claimed some of their sailors were captured by Iran or said they found evidence of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Maybe the administration would declare war on Iran with the intent of overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran.
If a war with Iran went ahead, I expect I only limited support from other Western Countries. Britain and Australia perhaps, however that might be a long short. However such a war would follow a period of the administration undermining the regime by any means necessary. Such a war would be a lot more tougher than the Second Iraq war was with at least the IRGC fighting to the bitter end. Also more conversational than the Second Iraq War was in OTL. The war would be winnable for the United States, although it would last a while and there would be a considerable number of casualties.
However once the regime is defeated and a democratic government is established, a large section of the Iranian populace which opposed the rule of the Mullahs would welcome the Americans as liberators. The whole post war situation in Iran would be a lot more different than say it was in Iraq where people hated Saddam Hussein much more than the Americans.
There would be localized conflicts particular in the Kurdish majority regions and Balochistan for example. However nothing like the protracted insurgency which occured in Iraq in OTL.
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