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Following the election of an anti-slavery Republican as President, seven Deep South states declared secession in early 1861, before the new President had even taken office. But this was was not a sure thing: South Carolina led the way, but even there many men were "Cooperationists". They thought that the slave states should act in unison, with secession as the recommendation or decision of a multi-state convention. Almost certainly this convention would not have been held till after the new President took office. It was also likely that if Upper South or Border State delegates attended the convention, they would oppose any action on secession until the new President had done something to justify it.

We know that Lincoln came into office determined to avoid any action which could be construed as exceeding his constitutional powers against slavery. We'll assume that the President is Lincoln.

So: the Cooperationists get their way, but Lincoln avoids giving the secessionists any grounds for secession.

However, in the course of his entirely constitutional functions as President, Lincoln has to make numerous appointments requiring approval by the Senate. For instance, there was a vacancy on the Supreme Court, due to the recent death of Justice Daniel. Also, the members of his Cabinet. OTL, this was no difficulty, as with 21 southern Senators gone, Republicans had a majority.

But if they don't: there was until recently a tradition of the Senate confirming most Presidential appointments with little debate or opposition. Would that have held in this situation? The hard-line pro-slavery Senators from the Deep South would rigidly oppose any Republican appointment - perhaps even resorting to filibusters.

Most Northern Democrats, and some Border State Whig-oid Senators (the Whig Party was dead, but some former Whigs held office as "Opposition" members, or had affiliated with the "American" ("Know-Nothing") Party) would not join this obstruction. But would there be enough votes for confirmations? Or to overcome filibusters?
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