No Saint-Barthelemy massacre

What if, having a bad feeling about the wedding of her daughter Marguerite with the King of Navarre, Catherine de Medicis chose to make it happen in a big field, with nobody, therefore avoiding one of the worst part of French history ?
 
I'm not sure why she would do that. Paris was a Catholic stronghold and probably safer for her if anything. And it was apparently her son, Charles IX, who authorized the massacre.

Also, while that was the worst single massacre of the wars, it was not the only one, by a long shot (and Protestants were guilty of some as well).
 
True that Charles authorized it, but after some stuff with a plot and everything from protestants. But Catherine was for peace, so if she suspects something, she would choose another place, like Amboise. This marriage was the big occasion to solve the huge crisis in a peaceful way, and make the kingdom more stable.

And hat's the fact that Paris was a Catholic stronghold that exlains why it's a bad idea to celebrate the mrriage. The King wrote a precise order with a bunch a protestant military commanders to emprison or execute, and the people of Paris took this as a "You can kill whoever you want !" order.

I guess she could also have chosen a place that she 100% knows and masters, like one of the many castles upon the Loire, and mostly a neutral place (she could alos have listened to an astrologist telling her that the stars are bad upon Paris for peace, or something, she was really into magic)
 
The problem wasn't the location. The problem was the political climate.

The French Religious Wars were one of the worst periods in French history and that's because tensions between Catholics and Protestants were nearly on Game of Thrones level of bad. It wasn't just a religious divide, you also had hartred that built themselves on top of it and only strenghtened the tensions between both sides. To top it all, you also had political rivalries because Royal Power was critically weakened at the worst possible time: the accidental death of Henri II led first to the short-lived reign of Francis II (sickly, 15 years old upon his accession) and then the regency for Charles IX. Not helping, England and Spain got involved by giving their support to the side they favored while also attempting to gain something from the mess.

Between 1562 and 1598, the Catholics and Protestants had gone to war with each other eight times. Except for the last one that lasted 13 years (that's what happens when a Protestant gets the throne), the others were small conflicts but exceptionnally brutal. The periods of peace lasted at best five years and someone was always a bit too eager to put fuel on the fire.

In this highly explosive context, it wasn't easy to come to a settlement and secure peace. The engagement negotiated between Marguerite de Valois and Henri de Navarre was one such way people tried to achive peace because both spouse represented one side (the Catholics for Marguerite, the Protestants for Henri). But you already had three Religious Wars that had happened so tensions were high, not helped by the fact the marriage took place on the parvis de Notre Dame and not inside the Cathedral (because the Protestants refused to enter it). All it took to spark the Saint Barthelemy slaughter was for someone to shoot Gaspard de Coligny with an arquebuse and wound his arm a few days later. It seems Charles IX was convinced by his councilors to have the leaders of the Protestant party quietly executed because they feared the Protestants would ask for Retribution and be the ones to attack first if not dealt with. Charles IX wasn't on board with the idea (he was close to Coligny) but he agreed because he feared the situation worsening if he didn't. The situation got however way out of hand as eventually the assassins got overzealous and provoked a chain reaction that led to the slaughter. And sparked the fourth Religious War while we're at it.

Even if Paris was a city associated with the Catholic League, I'm not sure changing the location wouldn't result in a similar outcome. The Parisian Saint Barthelmy is the best known but there were also little Saint Barthelemys that happened all over France. There is also the problem that you couldn't really have the marriage happen in anywhere but Paris: it's the French capital and the seat of royal power after all, even if the court was mostly itinerant at the time. It had to be there if you wanted to have a really symbolic attempt to unite both sides of the Religious Wars. And what would really constitute neutral ground anyway?

Besides, even if you managed to avoid the slaughter, I doubt the wedding would accomplish anything besides a short period of peace. The situation was that bad.
 
Well avoiding Paris is avoiding the slaughter anyway, because from what I know, the people killed this massive amount of protestants. In the assistance, people were not here to fight, the attack on Coligny was probably going to happen, but the order of execution became a slaughter only with the assistance of Parisians. I'm not talking about the government of Paris, but about it's people, who were ultra catholics, maybe even more than their government.

Even on the paper having most of the important people of Navarre in a ultra catholic city is a bad idea. I really like Catherine de Médicis but she really missed an opportunity to be smart on this time. Paris was an unstable mess at this time, even without religious wars, that's one of the big reasons why Napoléon allowed Haussmann to litteraly bomb Paris and rebuilt street by street, he wanted the "bad society" outside of the capital.
 
Well avoiding Paris is avoiding the slaughter anyway, because from what I know, the people killed this massive amount of protestants.
As I said, Paris isn't the only place were a slaughter took place: it only was the main venue. It actually had ripple effects throughout France and slaughter of Catholics by Protestants happened in many cities. Catholics slaughtered Protestants in Orléans the day after the Saint Barthélémie slaughter happened for example. Even a city as far from Paris as Toulouse saw Catholics slaughtering Protestants, and it happend on October 4th, which was six weeks after the slaughter in Paris. And it's even hard to estimate how many people died outside of Paris because we don't have as much documentations. It's generally assumed that around 5,000 to 10,000 people died (compared to Paris' 3,000 killed) but there are a few who go as far as to say we got to 30,000.

Plus, it's really hard to control mobs when they start to form. The execution of Protestant leaders would likely attract attention and possibly led to Catholic mobs forming on their own and attacking the Protestants. It's more or less what happened in Paris on the day of the Saint Barthélémy. Let's also not forget how high the tensions were on both sides: neither the Catholic nor the Protestant trusted each other. If Coligny still got shot, that would inevitably spark trouble.

Again, it's really not a problem of location from my POV.
In the assistance, people were not here to fight, the attack on Coligny was probably going to happen, but the order of execution became a slaughter only with the assistance of Parisians.
The Parisians got into the action because the assassins actually got a bit overzealous and lacked discretion... They made so much noise it attracted the attention of the people around and the situation got worse from then on. Giving the order to muder the Protestant chiefs snowballed into a slaughter yes but it was practically unavoidable given how this was done.
I'm not talking about the government of Paris, but about it's people, who were ultra catholics, maybe even more than their government.
Mobs tend to be more radical and violent than their leaders.
Even on the paper having most of the important people of Navarre in a ultra catholic city is a bad idea. I really like Catherine de Médicis but she really missed an opportunity to be smart on this time. Paris was an unstable mess at this time, even without religious wars, that's one of the big reasons why Napoléon allowed Haussmann to litteraly bomb Paris and rebuilt street by street, he wanted the "bad society" outside of the capital.
The problem is that Paris, as I said, is also not just any city in France: it's the capital city. The court was mostly travelling between the various castle in the Loire River at the time sure, but Paris still remained a high center of power with a lot of institutions. There litterally was no other place to have the wedding take place if they wanted to make it a high symbol of recounciliation.

And if not for Paris, where would you have the wedding take place? How was the climate in that city? How do you guarantee tensions would not build up and degenerate? Paris isn't the only city that had its faire share of ultra catholics after all.
 
For a place I would suggest Montpellier, Catholic country, Protestant intelligentsia, rich and cultured city, I think if they realise that Paris is to avoid, it would be the best placen they could also go to Reims, maybe, since it's symbolicaly important, but ... meh, I fell less convinced about this one. If you speak French, I have a very detailed map of massacres, "safe" places and everything ...

And I know about the importance of Paris, as much as I know the superstitious nature of Catherine, the wedding would not have the same prestige, but if she is convinced that something bad is going to happen, she will play instinctively and choose another place. From my POV, the Saint-Barthélémy massacre is the consequence of poor choices and bad luck, missing an historic occasion. If the wedding went good, it would have been a good opportunity to sign treaties, enforce them upon reticent nobles. People were not convinced (same problem as with the French constitutional monarchy under Louis XVI)

There was probably an ideal place that would have avoid a mass scale massacre, plus the fact that Coligny was killed from a house belonging to the Guise. Since we only have suspects (Guise, Duke of Albe, or Catherine) we can guess that Catherine is not very likely if she wants her plan to work, but Guise and Albe would have more trouble to organize such a thing in a place that they don't master.

The main problem in my opinion (that you pointed with much tact) is that if it's not Paris, where would it be ? There were much places with no massacre at all (Britanny, Normandy, the whole southeast quarter of France) but it's hard to find a place with as much influence and prestige ... if we need a big city, I would choose Montpellier, if we need a castle, I would suggest Amboise (since there was a peace edit signed in this castle)
 
The only realistic way in which the Saint-Barthélémy massacre will not happen is without the wedding...
 
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