No Russo-Japanese War = Russian Intervention in Bosnia 1908?

Would Russia have intervened in the Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1908 if there hadn't been a Russo-Japanese War? Would this spark a European wide or possibly world wide conflict or would it remain an Eastern Europe/Balkans conflict?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Probably, almost, definitely not. The Bosnian crises is caused more by the stupid handling by the Russians and the Austrians

Initially, the Russians thought they had a deal (Austria gets Bosnia and Russia can send her ships through the straits). The Austrians also don't bother to buy off the Turks (which they could easily have done - they evacuate the Sanjak so could have offered them that. In the end, they pay the Turks for the "public buildings") The Austrians offered their Italian "allies" nothing.

Nobody really cared about Bosnia- Austria had occupied it for 30 years so its not like a great change and certainly nothing that would lead to a war unless someone was looking for a pretext.

If Russia hadn't been weakened by the Japanese War, the Austrians would probably have gone about it in a more diplomatic fashion. Buying off the Russians and the Turks (ignoring the Italians) with the concessions mentioned.

The Kaiser and Franz Ferdinand weren't happy about it either. Its really FJ making a show of "strength".

Because of the way he handled it, FJ managed to alienate the Italians and ruined the detente with Russia which had put the Balkan issue to rest for 14 years
 

BooNZ

Banned
Nobody really cared about Bosnia- Austria had occupied it for 30 years so its not like a great change and certainly nothing that would lead to a war unless someone was looking for a pretext.

Actually Serbia cared a lot about BH and were sabre rattling (giggle) about the whole annexation thing. What makes matters a little more serious is (I understand) part of the land annexed triggered a clause in a secret alliance between Serbia and Bulgaria (that Russia had sponsored). OTL Russia poured cold water on Serbian belligerence, because it was in no shape for a fight, but in the POD provided...

If Russia hadn't been weakened by the Japanese War, the Austrians would probably have gone about it in a more diplomatic fashion. Buying off the Russians and the Turks (ignoring the Italians) with the concessions mentioned.

A-H did go about it in a diplomatic fashion - they had made a deal with the Russians, who realised too late the A-H consideration was worthless. The Russians then pleaded to be the victim. The Turks were bought off belatedly.

The Kaiser and Franz Ferdinand weren't happy about it either. Its really FJ making a show of "strength".
The annexation was to effectively maintain the status quo - leaving the fate of BH undecided with Serbia, Ottomans and Russia on the fringes would not have been ideal.

Because of the way he handled it, FJ managed to alienate the Italians and ruined the detente with Russia which had put the Balkan issue to rest for 14 years

Russia brokered secret agreements/ alliances between Bulgaria and Serbia prior to the Russo-Japanese war (in breach of understandings with A-H, which had Serbia in A-H's sphere of influence). The ultimate target of such an alliance was the Ottoman and A-H Empires. FF wanted a détente with Russia, but Russia had other ideas...
 
Nobody really cared about Bosnia- Austria had occupied it for 30 years so its not like a great change and certainly nothing that would lead to a war unless someone was looking for a pretext.

True, from a Great Power-focused perspective...but in some ways, it was a very big change. Before 1908, Austria was just the custodian of the provinces; the population in Bosnia could still wait and hope they would be rescued from A-H's reactionary policies and mismanagement by some kind of an international conference. In 1908, A-H sent a clear and irreversible signal to Bosnian people that it's there to stay.

Native attacks on the administration began soon after (though, to be fair, these attacks and terrorist acts were also happening in Galicia, Croatia...across half the Habsburg monarchy; Bosnia was just where its overall mismanagement stank the most). And from there on it was just a big downward spiral of Habsburg paranoia, jingoism and even more repressive measures culminating in the July Ultimatum and A-H's rampant massacres of Serb civilians across the region.

The annexation of Bosnia made it almost inevitable that A-H would be looking for a pretext in the not so far future (and of course, Bosnia was where they ended up finding that pretext).
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The annexation of Bosnia made it almost inevitable that A-H would be looking for a pretext in the not so far future (and of course, Bosnia was where they ended up finding that pretext).

If Austria wanted, she could have invaded Serbia at the time, no one would have stopped her If she wanted war, 1908 isn't a bad time for her. Far better than 1914

In any event, the larger point remains- from the perspectives of the Great Powers, Bosnia isn't that big a deal. The only way Russia would allow it to escalate to war is if she was seeking a pretext for war. Even if Russia had avoided the Japanese War, the chances of that are infinitsimal
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Actually Serbia cared a lot about BH and were sabre rattling (giggle) about the whole annexation thing. What makes matters a little more serious is (I understand) part of the land annexed triggered a clause in a secret alliance between Serbia and Bulgaria (that Russia had sponsored). OTL Russia poured cold water on Serbian belligerence, because it was in no shape for a fight, but in the POD provided...

Nobody cared what Serbia thought

A-H did go about it in a diplomatic fashion - they had made a deal with the Russians, who realised too late the A-H consideration was worthless. The Russians then pleaded to be the victim. The Turks were bought off belatedly.

That's not what Franz Ferdinand and the Kaiser thought. As I said, the Austrians could have spared themselves a lot of trouble if they bought off the Turks before hand. Supporting Russian passage through the straits would have avoided it all

The annexation was to effectively maintain the status quo - leaving the fate of BH undecided with Serbia, Ottomans and Russia on the fringes would not have been ideal.

The annexation of Bosnia was not included in the agreements despite Austria's effort to do so. You are arguing that an action specifically outside the agreements are part of the agreement which isa bit of a pretzel Again, if the Austrians had behaved in a diplomatic fashion and offered reasonable compensation, no one would have cared

A Russia unaffected by the Japanese War would have been strong enough that Austria would probably have acted a little more sensibly.
 

abc123

Banned
rescued from A-H's reactionary policies and mismanagement .

:rolleyes::eek:

Were you ever in B&H?

Allmost anything of value there was built during short A-H administration from 1878 to 1914. B&H had seen more progress during those short 35 years than during previous AT LEAST 350 years.
 
:rolleyes::eek:

Were you ever in B&H?

Allmost anything of value there was built during short A-H administration from 1878 to 1914. B&H had seen more progress during those short 35 years than during previous AT LEAST 350 years.

Considering what those previous >350 years looked like, that doesn't have to mean much.

A-H also kept up the Ottoman serfdom system all the way to 1918 (IIRC 1/4 of all the people in Bosnia were serfs), and operated the smallest, poorest excuse of a school system in the region. Not to mention dozens of less prominent screwups, or the cultural and political repression.

Sure, they built some stuff (although these things were usually financed by taxing the last drop of blood out of the Serb and Croat peasants); but overall A-H's regime in BiH was incompetent, colonial-minded and widely disliked.
 

BooNZ

Banned
:rolleyes::eek:

Were you ever in B&H?

Allmost anything of value there was built during short A-H administration from 1878 to 1914. B&H had seen more progress during those short 35 years than during previous AT LEAST 350 years.

A-H were clearly incompetent! With industrial growth in BH averaging double digits over 35 years, A-H clearly had no concept of how evil overlords were supposed to behave...
 

BooNZ

Banned
Nobody cared what Serbia thought
Maybe not, but Russia purportedly cared what Serbia thought and may have taken that to extremes if it was in Russia's interest.

That's not what Franz Ferdinand and the Kaiser thought. As I said, the Austrians could have spared themselves a lot of trouble if they bought off the Turks before hand. Supporting Russian passage through the straits would have avoided it all

The passage of military ships through the straights was governed by international law, put in place after the Crimean war. A-H support alone was simply not sufficient to overturn this.

The annexation of Bosnia was not included in the agreements despite Austria's effort to do so. You are arguing that an action specifically outside the agreements are part of the agreement which isa bit of a pretzel Again, if the Austrians had behaved in a diplomatic fashion and offered reasonable compensation, no one would have cared

The A-H annexation was a rare demonstration of pragmatism - the fact there was no war meant no one who mattered, cared [enough]. OTL the Russians accepted the compensation offered by A-H and then pretended no such deal took place.

A Russia unaffected by the Japanese War would have been strong enough that Austria would probably have acted a little more sensibly.

Or the Russians, after reneging (per OTL), would back up their change of position with force.
 
A-H were clearly incompetent! With industrial growth in BH averaging double digits over 35 years, A-H clearly had no concept of how evil overlords were supposed to behave...

Belgian Congo also had double-digit industrial growth for decades. By that logic, we can only assume colonized Congo was a paradise, too, since industrial growth is clearly the only thing anyone needs to know about any regime...
 
Last edited:

LordKalvert

Banned
Maybe not, but Russia purportedly cared what Serbia thought and may have taken that to extremes if it was in Russia's interest.

As a pretext? Yes but everyone's agreed on that. If you want war, an excuse is easy to find


The passage of military ships through the straights was governed by international law, put in place after the Crimean war. A-H support alone was simply not sufficient to overturn this.

Somewhat but then that would make the AH refusal to keep their part of the deal even dumber. But if Austria said yes, then Germany would not object. France certainly wouldn't and Britain had long since given up on the straits. Basically the plan would have worked

The A-H annexation was a rare demonstration of pragmatism - the fact there was no war meant no one who mattered, cared [enough]. OTL the Russians accepted the compensation offered by A-H and then pretended no such deal took place.

Omitting that Austria assured the Russians that two weeks notice were supposed to be given- something Austria failed to do

Or the Russians, after reneging (per OTL), would back up their change of position with force.

Since the Russians didn't renege but the Austrians did, I fail to see the logic
 

abc123

Banned
A-H were clearly incompetent! With industrial growth in BH averaging double digits over 35 years, A-H clearly had no concept of how evil overlords were supposed to behave...

Indeed...

But, obviously, for Serbs even Turkish occupation where they could impale you whenever they wanted is WAY better than even the best and most benevolent A-H administration. ;)
 
Last edited:
Top