Would Russia have intervened in the Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1908 if there hadn't been a Russo-Japanese War? Would this spark a European wide or possibly world wide conflict or would it remain an Eastern Europe/Balkans conflict?
Nobody really cared about Bosnia- Austria had occupied it for 30 years so its not like a great change and certainly nothing that would lead to a war unless someone was looking for a pretext.
If Russia hadn't been weakened by the Japanese War, the Austrians would probably have gone about it in a more diplomatic fashion. Buying off the Russians and the Turks (ignoring the Italians) with the concessions mentioned.
The annexation was to effectively maintain the status quo - leaving the fate of BH undecided with Serbia, Ottomans and Russia on the fringes would not have been ideal.The Kaiser and Franz Ferdinand weren't happy about it either. Its really FJ making a show of "strength".
Because of the way he handled it, FJ managed to alienate the Italians and ruined the detente with Russia which had put the Balkan issue to rest for 14 years
Nobody really cared about Bosnia- Austria had occupied it for 30 years so its not like a great change and certainly nothing that would lead to a war unless someone was looking for a pretext.
The annexation of Bosnia made it almost inevitable that A-H would be looking for a pretext in the not so far future (and of course, Bosnia was where they ended up finding that pretext).
Actually Serbia cared a lot about BH and were sabre rattling (giggle) about the whole annexation thing. What makes matters a little more serious is (I understand) part of the land annexed triggered a clause in a secret alliance between Serbia and Bulgaria (that Russia had sponsored). OTL Russia poured cold water on Serbian belligerence, because it was in no shape for a fight, but in the POD provided...
A-H did go about it in a diplomatic fashion - they had made a deal with the Russians, who realised too late the A-H consideration was worthless. The Russians then pleaded to be the victim. The Turks were bought off belatedly.
The annexation was to effectively maintain the status quo - leaving the fate of BH undecided with Serbia, Ottomans and Russia on the fringes would not have been ideal.
rescued from A-H's reactionary policies and mismanagement .
Were you ever in B&H?
Allmost anything of value there was built during short A-H administration from 1878 to 1914. B&H had seen more progress during those short 35 years than during previous AT LEAST 350 years.
Were you ever in B&H?
Allmost anything of value there was built during short A-H administration from 1878 to 1914. B&H had seen more progress during those short 35 years than during previous AT LEAST 350 years.
Maybe not, but Russia purportedly cared what Serbia thought and may have taken that to extremes if it was in Russia's interest.Nobody cared what Serbia thought
That's not what Franz Ferdinand and the Kaiser thought. As I said, the Austrians could have spared themselves a lot of trouble if they bought off the Turks before hand. Supporting Russian passage through the straits would have avoided it all
The annexation of Bosnia was not included in the agreements despite Austria's effort to do so. You are arguing that an action specifically outside the agreements are part of the agreement which isa bit of a pretzel Again, if the Austrians had behaved in a diplomatic fashion and offered reasonable compensation, no one would have cared
A Russia unaffected by the Japanese War would have been strong enough that Austria would probably have acted a little more sensibly.
A-H were clearly incompetent! With industrial growth in BH averaging double digits over 35 years, A-H clearly had no concept of how evil overlords were supposed to behave...
Maybe not, but Russia purportedly cared what Serbia thought and may have taken that to extremes if it was in Russia's interest.
The passage of military ships through the straights was governed by international law, put in place after the Crimean war. A-H support alone was simply not sufficient to overturn this.
The A-H annexation was a rare demonstration of pragmatism - the fact there was no war meant no one who mattered, cared [enough]. OTL the Russians accepted the compensation offered by A-H and then pretended no such deal took place.
Or the Russians, after reneging (per OTL), would back up their change of position with force.
A-H were clearly incompetent! With industrial growth in BH averaging double digits over 35 years, A-H clearly had no concept of how evil overlords were supposed to behave...