BooNZ
Banned
The Russo-Japanese War led to major reforms not just in Russia but also throughout Europe. One of the biggest reasons for German success against france is that germany was far beetter at learning the lessons of that war
Essentially the impossible Russian logistics enabled the German trained/inspired Japanese army win using an obsessively offensive mindset. Aside from the evolution of less bold uniforms, lessons from the Russo-Japanese war were largely ignored. The demonstration of Russian military weakness triggered a European arms race, but confirmation bias ensured the Russo-Japanese war did not significantly alter European military thinking.
In respect of Howitzers and heavy artillery, the Germans already had a significant qualitative and quantitative advantage (proportional and absolute) well before the Russo Japanese war. Most of the artillery advances made by the Germans after the Russo-Japanese war were the introduction of fast firing artillery and development of super heavy artillery of the fortress busting variety.Some of he major things: the Germans learned and the french did not:
1) the value of plunging fire especially howitzers and trench mortars
2) the need for modern uniforms
3) the vaue of heavy artillery
The absurd French offensive doctrine was conceived by Joffre in 1912, not as a result of the Russo-Japanese war.On the other han,d the French got the offense outrance theory. Before the war, military doctrine had favored the defensive as learned from the Battle of Plena
Diplomatically, the Russians would be far stronger. They may or may not have returned to Europe. The alternatives would be to continue to strengthen themselves in the Far East and seek a war with Japan at a better time or Central Asia for a push towards India
The Russians were already balls deep in the Balkans following the Serbian regicide, being the key inspiration/ sponsor of the secret reconciliation between Serbia and Bulgaria from 1904, which ultimately led to the Balkan league. With Witte's influence on the wane, the hawks had a firm grip on Russian foreign policy.
The Russians certainly could have revisited Japan at a later date after their Trans-Siberian railway was in better shape, but fundamental logistics and limited finance mean Russia poised the same threat to British India as it did to New Zealand...
Economically, Russia was still headed towards major reform as the Tsar had fired Witte due to the collapse of his economic model. The first signs of agarian unrest had shown up and the need to concentrate on agriculture was becoming clear
Witte had successfully managed the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway, the Russian transition to the gold standard and strong Russian economic and industrial growth throughout the 1890s - blaming Witte's economic model for a European wide recession that impacted heavily on the Russian economy is curious. Witte's prioritization of industry had accumulated a significant number of enemies in the agrarian sector, but the majority of those were landed lords with little interest in reform.
Witte's removal was social/ political, rather than performance related.