Matthais Corvinus Matthais Corvinus is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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So in the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-78 goes differently. The Russians take the fortress at Pleven, and are able to take Constantinople ahead of Anglo-French intervention.
The Russians hold both sides of the city, and with this control are able to deny the Anglo-French fleet access to the Black Sea. The British and French both are very concerned about the massive expansion of Russian power in the Balkans, but with Russian control of the Dardenelles, the cost of intervention is much steeper than OTL. Furthermore, the Russians have totally run the table on the Turks, and made gains that have been pillars of Russian foreign policy for centuries. Once Russian troops are in Constantinople, there will be no getting them out without actually fighting them.
To say that this would totally change the European balance of power would be quite accurate. This kind of complete victory would allow the Russians to impose a Great Bulgaria, maybe even with a Romanov on the throne. With control of Constantinople the Russians would also be able to impose a peace treaty on the Ottoman Empire.
With the fall of Constantinople the calculus of how the Great Powers deal with the Ottoman Empire will change. The Anglo-French will need to choose between three options:1) declare war on the Russians in order to prevent their control over Constantinople, and to head off future Russian designs on Ottoman territory, 2) work together to support the reduced Ottoman Empire and use their influence to effect a solution where the Russians keep their major gains but are kept out of most of the Ottoman Empire (in this option the Ottoman Empire continues) 3) Join the feast, that is cut up the Ottoman Empire, the logic for this is that the Anglo-French are much more able to grab real estate within the Ottoman Empire proper than the Russians are. The Russians are exhausted from their war, and are obviously not very organized. The Anglo-French can impose their own territorial solution on the rest of the Empire, a solution which will look much different from OTL post-WWI mandates, because the French influence in Egypt has not yet been ousted by British intervention (which happened in 1880's).
I suspect that the Anglo-French would support option 2. The British don't want more territory. The French may want territory, but they are not in a strong position at this time and will basically follow the British lead. I see the definite possibility of a number of British and French troops on Ottoman territory. The British and French may abandon many of their unfair trade practices vis a vis the Ottomans, for fear that a continuing weak Ottoman Empire will only be more pray for the Russians. The strengthening of the Ottoman Empire with real reforms and major economic advances is in the cards. The "Young Ottomans" would come to power.
How does Austria-Hungary and Germany react to this? This is a question I don't really have an answer for. The Russian threat in the East would bind Anglo-French interests, which is something that Bismarck does not want. But he will be gone in a very short time. Germany, instead of looking like the 800 lb gorilla unbalancing Europe (as I would say it came to viewed OTL with Wilhelm II at the helm) the British could see it as a counter-weight to the Russians, who represent a very big threat in the British mind. The Russian victory could also contribute to the feeling among Germans that a navy is not so necessary. In this ATL the Russians proved in '77-'78 that land power, when properly used and positioned, could trump sea power. If the Germans draw that lessons, then this is a very good thing for Anglo-German relations
China would get big ripples from this. With the Russian interest in South Europe/West Asia economic resources would be sunk into the new Russian empire in the south. I see Constantinople as looming much large in both Russian imagination and strategy than China and the East more generally. Then finally have their warm water port after all . . .
so assume the 1895 Japanese/ Chinese war happens as OTL, except that afterwards Russia busy with affiars in the Black Sea/East Med, don't interfere and Japan keeps Port Arthur.
This means Russia is less interested in Manchuria as a link to Vladistok.
Comes 1905, and No war.
japan keeps Korea and it's King as a puppet but does not anexx Korea.
?What happens next?