If you believe, Jesus would show up regardless. However, taking religion out of the equation and looking objectively, Christianity or something very like it might have sprouted out of Judaism if the greeks continued to control judea, and the maccabees failed. that or jews would have been a hell of a lot more militant. islam would not have showed up without christianity, period.
i do think conflict between carthage and the celts to the north is inevitable ITTL. The Celtiberians were just to the north, and then there was Gaul. I think Greece would continue to expand and colonize the med. sea. they would also conflict with both carthage and the celts. the etruscans would become the power in italy, possibly wiping out any possibility of romance languages altogether (etruscans spoke a language related to ionian), or maybe a pidgen and a new branch of language we wouldnt recognize.
i think europe at large would either civilize much much slower, or would be a lot like OTL africa, and remain largely tribal