No Qing conquest: Surviving Manchu state?

If the Manchus had not conquered China, instead focusing on maintaining internal stability and external borders, could a Manchu state have existed alongside China in the same manner as Korea - paying tribute, recognizing the primacy of the Chinese emperor, but remaining separate? And if so, could such a state have survived into the 20th century?
 
If the Manchus had not conquered China, instead focusing on maintaining internal stability and external borders, could a Manchu state have existed alongside China in the same manner as Korea - paying tribute, recognizing the primacy of the Chinese emperor, but remaining separate? And if so, could such a state have survived into the 20th century?

I don't think so.

Eisenstadt suggests that there are two main types of value orientation in (historical) bureaucratic states; the political-collective orientation, in which the focus is essentially strengthening the state via territorial expansion, and the cultural maintenance orientation in which the focus is more internal and cultural.

The Jianzhou Jurchens weren't purely nomadic, but the nature of their lifestyle still suggests that any Jianzhou state would be strongly of the political-collective type. The state needs conflict and expansion to survive as a single political entity. Mote said that the Liao empire was a "restless" empire, but that adjective would apply just as well to a Jianzhou state.

No conquests probably simply mean no Manchu state survives for very long.
 
If it somehow survived into the 19th century, I imagine it would end up gobbled by Russia (or possibly a modernized China/Japan/Korea), just like all the Central Asian khanates.
 
It's unlikely. Besides, the Tungusic element in such a state would be...diluted, let's say.
Manchuria was settled by Han farmers after 1870-80, more or less. If for example the Taiping rebellion and other during this time succeeded the Manchuria would end up being a Russian protectorate or the Qing would retreat here while still controlling part of North China and Korea.
If you are talking about culture then I guess it would be quite impossible to avoid change with any POD.
 
Manchuria was settled by Han farmers after 1870-80, more or less. If for example the Taiping rebellion and other during this time succeeded the Manchuria would end up being a Russian protectorate or the Qing would retreat here while still controlling part of North China and Korea.
If you are talking about culture then I guess it would be quite impossible to avoid change with any POD.

???

There was rather irregular but significant Chinese emigration into Manchuria throughout the 18th century, and by 1781 over 80% of the population in Manchurian towns and garrisons were Chinese.
 
???

There was rather irregular but significant Chinese emigration into Manchuria throughout the 18th century, and by 1781 over 80% of the population in Manchurian towns and garrisons were Chinese.
Urban areas don´t have the major share of population in 1800, I would guess it could not be higher than 10%.
I correct my previous sentence: Manchuria became mostly populated by Han only after mass settlements after 1870-1880.
 
Urban areas don´t have the major share of population in 1800, I would guess it could not be higher than 10%.

The Chinese were also extensively mobilized, semi-legally or entirely illegally, as agricultural workers in the Bannermen or Imperial Estate settlements or by Manchu landlords. Most cultivated land in Manchuria was actually worked by Chinese by 1800, the grorious Manchus (alright Manchu actually has /l/ but whatever) didn't really want to farm intensively like the Chinese.
 
The Chinese were also extensively mobilized, semi-legally or entirely illegally, as agricultural workers in the Bannermen or Imperial Estate settlements or by Manchu landlords. Most cultivated land in Manchuria was actually worked by Chinese by 1800, the grorious Manchus (alright Manchu actually has /l/ but whatever) didn't really want to farm intensively like the Chinese.
I don´t think this alone would undermine the survival of a Manchu state, I mean if you avoid the big part of the migration in the second half of the 19th century the Manchurian share would be bigger. It would also depend on what happens to Manchuria, if Russia takes it then Russians would substitute partly the Chinese in this scenario so this would not help(Still there is a door open to an independent Manchuria if Russia takes it) if it only becomes a protectorate or Vassal then I would imagine Manchuria would end up being very mixed(plurality Manchu or Chinese) with Koreans in the south, Chinese in the West and Russian in the North.
I don´t think you can say Manchus were lazy though.
 
Never said they were, just that they didn't like intensive farming that the Chinese were accustomed to since it was much more alien to Manchu culture.
Ah ok, I thought it was a bit odd how you put it.

Anyway would having no Qing invasion leave the Liaodong Peninsula under the control of China? This would undermine the survivability of a Manchu state. But this depends on how China in the south ends up doing after the Ming collapses or recovers.
 
What are the key areas that a Manchu state would need to control in order to be viable long term? Would a coast on the Yellow Sea be indispensable? Failing that, what if Manchuria controlled what's now Primorsky Krai, including the location of Vladivostok? (assuming a POD that takes place before Russian expansion into the area).
 
What are the key areas that a Manchu state would need to control in order to be viable long term? Would a coast on the Yellow Sea be indispensable? Failing that, what if Manchuria controlled what's now Primorsky Krai, including the location of Vladivostok? (assuming a POD that takes place before Russian expansion into the area).

A Manchu state would need to have a large sedentary population, meaning Liaoning, and it would have to keep winning (offensive) wars. Inner Asian semi-nomadic states aren't exactly known for territorial stability.
 
The early Qing 'empire' was pretty much a bandit state not dissimilar to the early Ottoman state in that it relies heavily upon looting and pillaging to sustain the economy and the loyalty of it's soldiers.In other words,military success was what brought the different Jurchen tribes together.If the Ming Dynasty actually repulsed raids upon it's territory and stopped any invasion into China proper,then it is likely that the Jurchens would have relapsed back to it's original state with different tribes being wholly independent from one another.
 
So the consensus seems to be that a Manchu state would not be very viable long-term, due to the cultural and economic nature of Manchu society and due to their demographic disadvantage vis-a-vis China and probably Russia. Makes sense.

In that case, what about a parallel development to Mongolia? That is, detachment from China after the Qing collapse. But what factors enabled Mongolia to remain, well, Mongolian into the 20th century, while Manchuria became almost entirely Han?

Btw, thank you for your continued interest and contributions, Intransigent Southerner ;)
 
In that case, what about a parallel development to Mongolia? That is, detachment from China after the Qing collapse. But what factors enabled Mongolia to remain, well, Mongolian into the 20th century, while Manchuria became almost entirely Han?

The arable parts of what used to be Mongolia are largely majority Han nowadays and have been for the better part of the twentieth century. This a big chunk of what is called "Inner Mongolia", which is a province of China.
The parts of Mongolia (both Inner and Outer) which are still Mongolian are, on average, the more arid ones.
It is true however that Mongols are more numerous in Inner Mongolia than Manchus are in Manchuria. It may be that part of it has to do with a later and less sustained Han settlement, but I'd say the main factor is that a large chunk of Mongolia is quite barren, especially if compared to the fertile, relatively well-watered, resource-rich Manchurian Plain.

So, two factors primarily:
1) Mongolia is a desert. Where it isn't, it's often not much Mongolian anymore.
2) There was a thing called Red Army, that guaranteed Outer Mongolia's independence from China, thus preventing any significant Han settlement there (which was relatively unlikely to begin with due to the aforementioned fact of it being a desert).
 
The arable parts of what used to be Mongolia are largely majority Han nowadays and have been for the better part of the twentieth century. This a big chunk of what is called "Inner Mongolia", which is a province of China.
The parts of Mongolia (both Inner and Outer) which are still Mongolian are, on average, the more arid ones.
It is true however that Mongols are more numerous in Inner Mongolia than Manchus are in Manchuria. It may be that part of it has to do with a later and less sustained Han settlement, but I'd say the main factor is that a large chunk of Mongolia is quite barren, especially if compared to the fertile, relatively well-watered, resource-rich Manchurian Plain.

So, two factors primarily:
1) Mongolia is a desert. Where it isn't, it's often not much Mongolian anymore.
2) There was a thing called Red Army, that guaranteed Outer Mongolia's independence from China, thus preventing any significant Han settlement there (which was relatively unlikely to begin with due to the aforementioned fact of it being a desert).

This is a good post. I'd also note that there has been a large Chinese population in historical Mongolia since at least Ming times, and the Jehol was IIRC majority Chinese already by mid-Qing years.
 
Without the Qing Dinasty the area would remain divided, but what about Korea? Could be conquering it be the unifying factor for the Manchus?
Also if the area remains divided what would happen afterwards?
 
Without the Qing Dinasty the area would remain divided, but what about Korea? Could be conquering it be the unifying factor for the Manchus?
Also if the area remains divided what would happen afterwards?

If the Manchus can conquer and hold Korea then they should be able to conquer at least a portion of China as well. And after all even 1/10 of China > Korea.

If the Manchus don't unite Russia gets stronger in the east.
 
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