No Prussia: how would this affect the French Revolution?

Prussia was obviously very fortunate to come through the 18th Century as well as it did. It then played a major role in fighting revolutionary France, and was a major instigator in starting them due to the Declaration of Pilnitz.

What if Prussia remained a fairly small German state - perhaps being split up during the Seven Years War? If Austria and Russia were the only continental powers, would there have been less threatening behaviour towards the new French Republic, which contributed to the siege mentality and the Jacobin takeover?
 
No Prussia has pretty significant consequences for France even before the Revolution gets off the ground.

Depending on how early it gets nipped in the bud, so much so that the odds are good of doing away with it.

I'm not sure what Austria and Russia would do alone, but I can't see them taking well to the revolution in any sense.
 
No Prussia has pretty significant consequences for France even before the Revolution gets off the ground.

What sort of things are you thinking of?

Depending on how early it gets nipped in the bud, so much so that the odds are good of doing away with it.

Not sure what you're referring to here.

I'm not sure what Austria and Russia would do alone, but I can't see them taking well to the revolution in any sense.

They clearly won't like it, but it's whether they have the military strength to feel in a position to be making threats. Also, if Prussia falls in the 7YW, its possible Austria has gained Silesia given the Southern Netherlands to France. That would pose distance issues.
 
What sort of things are you thinking of?

France and Austria are traditional enemies. If Prussia isn't a threat to Austria, this isn't changing. Which puts France in a different position than OTL so far as the other continental powers go through out the 18th century.

Not sure what you're referring to here.

If Frederick's attempt to steal Silesia is smashed, or an even earlier POD, there won't be something like the Seven Years War as it was OTL.

They clearly won't like it, but it's whether they have the military strength to feel in a position to be making threats. Also, if Prussia falls in the 7YW, its possible Austria has gained Silesia given the Southern Netherlands to France. That would pose distance issues.

True, although not necessarily insurmountable.

As for the military strength: Why not?
 
France and Austria are traditional enemies. If Prussia isn't a threat to Austria, this isn't changing. Which puts France in a different position than OTL so far as the other continental powers go through out the 18th century.

Let's go for the latest POD to minimise butterflies: The Tsarita lives and Prussia gets carved up: rump Brandenburg, Silesia to Austria, East Prussia to Russia and then to Poland. Would there be a second diplomatic revolution? The Austrians have historic emnity to the French, but they've already ditched Britain and don't have anyone else to turn to.

True, although not necessarily insurmountable.

It would mean some small German state on France's borders, or the Netherlands, would have to host the massing army though. That's probably not a smart thing to do against an unpredictable and hugely populous France. If I was a prince of one of these ministates, I'd want to keep my head down. So I'm sure an army can be massed in Austria or Hannover or Bavaria, but it wouldn't be as antagonistic as one just over the border. That might mean France doesn't declare war.

As for the military strength: Why not?

Well Russia would take a long time to mobilise, and Austria probably can't take France on her own. Nobody else really has that big an army.
 
Let's go for the latest POD to minimise butterflies: The Tsarita lives and Prussia gets carved up: rump Brandenburg, Silesia to Austria, East Prussia to Russia and then to Poland. Would there be a second diplomatic revolution? The Austrians have historic emnity to the French, but they've already ditched Britain and don't have anyone else to turn to.

I don't think there'd be a second diplomatic revolution, but French-Austrian relations might cool without any mutual enemy.

It would mean some small German state on France's borders, or the Netherlands, would have to host the massing army though. That's probably not a smart thing to do against an unpredictable and hugely populous France. If I was a prince of one of these ministates, I'd want to keep my head down. So I'm sure an army can be massed in Austria or Hannover or Bavaria, but it wouldn't be as antagonistic as one just over the border. That might mean France doesn't declare war.

Yes, but most of those ministates are nominally Imperial vassals. Even if that has become just about literally name only, Austria can probably put pressure on one.

Well Russia would take a long time to mobilise, and Austria probably can't take France on her own. Nobody else really has that big an army.

How much are they going to believe they can't?

That's going to determine things, I think.
 
My favorite way to avoid a Prussia is to have the Poles conquer Prussia. But that butterflies pretty much....everything you were interested in.
 
Preventing the rise of Prussia will almost certainly mean the continuation of France as the continent's dominant martial power; assuming that it would defeat Austria in any conflict the two of them may have early after the POD. Thus a stronger more united France may be spared the revolution at all, or if not, a less radical or dangerous rising (ala my TL). I have to agree with the above posters in that removing Prussia as a credible great power will butterfly away the revolution, or at least making it radically different from OTL.
 
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