No Portuguese conquest of the Banda Oriental

[EnzoLux]

What if the portuguese never invaded the eastern provinces? I looked at some previous threads but they didn't go much further than "Uruguay stays as part of Argentina".

I wonder if Artigas would invade Buenos Aires and declare himself president/king. How would the other provinces react? How realistic was his vision of copying the US? Does Bolivia still become independent or could it join the rest of the former viceroyalty? Or is the Federal League more likely to break away from the rest of the UP?

If Artigas declares war on Buenos Aires, he would win easily, considering that even after the destruction of his army and the lost territories, the federalist still won against Buenos Aires. Perhaps he'd move the capital to Montevideo. From here I'm not sure how it continues. How is the political and economic outlook in the region after this, or how much resistance would there be against the dream of creating a “US of the south”, etc.

 

[holycookie]

bolivia is likely to become independent is not a worthwhile region. There's a reason why no one conquered bolivia until today.
I expect several wars between brazil and argentina, the rio do parana is important for contact with several states in the interior of brazil. Non-access is basically a death penalty for Brazil. The eastern band will become a huge battleground. What in the long run is positive for Brazil and Argentina creating pressures for the improvement of the countries. But in the end one of the two will win the oriental band. If I have to bet long term I would bet on Brazil. Due to its large population, which allows for a greater war of attrition.
there is no war in this region because the current borders make sense

 

[EnzoLux]

bolivia is likely to become independent is not a worthwhile region. There's a reason why no one conquered bolivia until today.

But Bolivia has lost territory to all its neighbors, so it is actually a bit worthwhile.

I expect several wars between brazil and argentina, the rio do parana is important for contact with several states in the interior of brazil. Non-access is basically a death penalty for Brazil.

Brazil never controlled that region but still survived, so I don't think it's actually that big of a deal.

The eastern band will become a huge battleground

I agree with this, and geographically it makes sense if it's part of Brazil, but culturally it's part of Argentina.