What if during Russian Civil War, Poland had not decided to invade western lands and spark Polish-Soviet War, thus preventing it from gaining Western Belarus and Ukrainian lands? How would it go? Would Stalin later retry to take all of Poland or he'd leave it alone like he did after Treaty of Riga and with other countries like the Baltics and Finland? In this situation, would Hitler still invaded the smaller Poland? How would Stain react to Hitler invading Poland while still controlling Western Belarus and Ukraine? Would Stalin help out Poland against Hitler since he had nothing to take since Poland in this timeline doesn't own Western Ukraine and Belarus? Or he'd still try to take all of Poland?
 
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Lenin in the autumn of 1919 was so worried about the possibility of Pilsudksi coming to the aid of Denikin and Yudenich that he offered Poland very "generous" boundaries. "At the same time Lenin offered Poles the territories of Minsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, in what was described as mini "Brest"; Polish military leader Kazimierz Sosnkowski wrote that the territorial proposals of the Bolsheviks were much better than what the Poles had wanted to achieve." http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Polish-Soviet_War E.H. Carr in his *The Bolshevik Revolution 1917-1923, Volume Three* quotes Radek as saying that Poland was offered "White Russia as far as the Beresina" (in OTL Poland ultimately got only western Belarus) as well as "Volhynia and Podolia." This would give Poland, in Belarus, not only Minsk but territory as far east as Babruysk as well (see http://www.freeworldmaps.net/europe/belarus/physical-map-belarus.jpg for a map) and in Ukraine it would leave them less than one hundred miles from Kiev. See https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ts-bolshevik-peace-offer-in-late-1919.399289/ and the attached map.

IMO, however, these borders would harm rather than help interwar Poland. First of all, the area involved was very poor, and would be an economic burden on Poland. Second, the area was overwhelmiongly inhabited by Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Jews, and would therefore simply aggravate the "national minorities" problem of interwar Poland. To mention one problem: The Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists would have a larger popular base, and would probably carry out more terrorist acts than in OTL, and the Polish repression would probably be even more brutal than in OTL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Ukrainians_in_Eastern_Galicia (OTOH, a lot fewer Ukrainians would starve in the Holodomor.)

Leaving aside the eastern borders, there would of course be other effects of no Soviet-Polish War (assuming that the Soviets do not try to regain the territory they offered to Pilsudski by force once they defeat the Whites). For example, Pilsudski would not be the hero of the Battle of Waesaw (since there would be no such battle) which might diminish his later political strength.
 
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Bolsheviks were prone to making generous peace offers, with intention to break them in the future, when they secure other fronts.

True, but Poland was not in the same situation as, say, Georgia; it was stronger as a military power, and there was a greater risk that an unprovoked attack on it would lead to a serious Great Power reaction. (That the reaction was somewhat half-hearted in OTL is at least in part due to the belief that Poland was the aggressor.)
 
A Poland not fighting for its life at Warsaw is a Poland that can put more effort into disputing Cieszyn/Tesin with Czechoslovakia. IOTL, the Soviet invasion of Poland coincided with Benes' maneuvering to secure control over the area. If Poland already has a secure eastern frontier, the British and French won't be so cooperative with Prague, so the issue will be arbitrated a bit more equitably. Mind you, Czechoslovakia had some legitimate national security concerns in Zaolzie--particularly the railroad line which linked Prague to Bratislava (IIRC the only such link within Czechoslovakia), but the way in which they grabbed the entire region left a lot of bad blood between the two governments.

However the Zaolzie issue is resolved ITTL, there is probably less bad blood there, opening the way for better Polish-Czech relations ITTL.

Pilsudski's personal cult will also be a lot less intense ITTL, so he might stay in retirement instead of overthrowing the government. As a butterfly, one might suggest that Gabriel Narutowicz, or whoever becomes President, is not murdered by National Democrats, helping Poland transition into a functioning representative democracy. This will also strengthen Poland-Little Entente and Poland-Entente relations.

While Poland would have a tougher situation with its Ukrainian/Belarussian/Jewish minorities (though perhaps some kind of federated deal--a Polish-Ruthenian Commonwealth--might appease them), I think TTL Poland would have better foreign relations with everyone except perhaps Lithuania.
 
True, but Poland was not in the same situation as, say, Georgia; it was stronger as a military power, and there was a greater risk that an unprovoked attack on it would lead to a serious Great Power reaction. (That the reaction was somewhat half-hearted in OTL is at least in part due to the belief that Poland was the aggressor.)
Poland is on the way to Germany. Unless Bolsheviks would lose any hope for worker's revolution early, they still could try to go West.
If there really is lasting peace made in 1919, then Polish-Soviet border would be propably half-way between Riga borders and Curzon Line.
 
Poland is on the way to Germany. Unless Bolsheviks would lose any hope for worker's revolution early, they still could try to go West.
If there really is lasting peace made in 1919, then Polish-Soviet border would be propably half-way between Riga borders and Curzon Line.

Even in OTL, despite the attractiveness of using Poland to make physical contact with Germany, and despite the lack of sympathy in western Europe for Poland, some of the leading Bolsheviks seem to have been reluctant to go beyond the Curzon Line: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/red-army-stops-at-the-curzon-line-1920.390402/
 
Lenin in the autumn of 1919 was so worried about the possibility of Pilsudksi coming to the aid of Denikin and Yudenich that he offered Poland very "generous" boundaries. "At the same time Lenin offered Poles the territories of Minsk, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, in what was described as mini "Brest"; Polish military leader Kazimierz Sosnkowski wrote that the territorial proposals of the Bolsheviks were much better than what the Poles had wanted to achieve." http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Polish-Soviet_War E.H. Carr in his *The Bolshevik Revolution 1917-1923, Volume Three* quotes Radek as saying that Poland was offered "White Russia as far as the Beresina" (in OTL Poland ultimately got only western Belarus) as well as "Volhynia and Podolia." This would give Poland, in Belarus, not only Minsk but territory as far east as Babruysk as well (see http://www.freeworldmaps.net/europe/belarus/physical-map-belarus.jpg for a map) and in Ukraine it would leave them less than one hundred miles from Kiev. See https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ts-bolshevik-peace-offer-in-late-1919.399289/ and the attached map.

IMO, however, these borders would harm rather than help interwar Poland. First of all, the area involved was very poor, and would be an economic burden on Poland. Second, the area was overwhelmiongly inhabited by Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Jews, and would therefore simply aggravate the "national minorities" problem of interwar Poland. To mention one problem: The Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists would have a larger popular base, and would probably carry out more terrorist acts than in OTL, and the Polish repression would probably be even more brutal than in OTL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Ukrainians_in_Eastern_Galicia (OTOH, a lot fewer Ukrainian would starve in the Holodomor.)

Leaving aside the eastern borders, there would of course be other effects of no Soviet-Polish War (assuming that the Soviets do not try to regain the territory they offered to Pilsudski by force once they defeat the Whites). For example, Pilsudski would not be the hero of the Battle of Waesaw (since there would be no such battle) which might diminish his later political strength.

I've read that the reason the Poles didn't accept this treaty is because they were reading the Soviet's mail (having broken their codes) and knew that the Soviets had zero intention of keeping this treaty.

Assuming that's true, for this to work, we'd either need the Soviet peace offer to be genuine or for the Poles to decide that they need the time to sort their western border before the Soviet rematch.

I think that the Poles having more minorities would actually help their minority relation problem and their economic problem. For two reasons:

1) More minorities strengthens those minorities and the Polish left, which I think opens paths to a healthier relationship between the Poles and the eastern minority groups. Also, I have difficulty seeing the NDs and Dmowski accepting a situation where non-Poles had so much say in how the core of Poland was run - as much as Dmowski disliked the un-centralized nature of the old Commonwealth, it may be that pushing for a federal structure for Poland would be the lesser of two evils here, meaning both the eastern minorities and the Polish right are happier and things like the Narutowicz murder of OTL might be avoided - which would significantly stabilize the Polish political situation between the wars.

2) One of the main reasons the eastern territories were so poor is because the new borders divided them off from the urban centers their economies were geared towards - mainly Minsk and Kiev. If Poland has one or both cities inside her borders, the east isn't mutilated economically.

Since the question is about what happens if there is no Polish-Soviet war, not simply a delayed Polish Soviet war, let's assume that whatever reasons lead to the treaty being signed, the Soviets do not decide to alter the deal with a war - at least not before WW2 starts, if it starts.

The Polish-Soviet war was ruinously expensive for both sides. The odds are that by leaving Poland, the Bolsheviks are able to end the civil war much sooner - my instinct is that it would cut a year or two off the civil war. That's potentially huge in terms of avoiding destruction that happened in OTL and in terms of being able to start the process of recovery sooner. Potentially the Soviets may be able to avoid doing Collectivization at the worst possible time, meaning it is a significantly smaller disaster.

Poland would also be much less damaged, meaning it can start rebuilding its economy from a higher level.

I think both Poland and the USSR would be significantly stronger by TTL's 1939.

fasquardon
 
A Poland not fighting for its life at Warsaw is a Poland that can put more effort into disputing Cieszyn/Tesin with Czechoslovakia. IOTL, the Soviet invasion of Poland coincided with Benes' maneuvering to secure control over the area. If Poland already has a secure eastern frontier, the British and French won't be so cooperative with Prague, so the issue will be arbitrated a bit more equitably. Mind you, Czechoslovakia had some legitimate national security concerns in Zaolzie--particularly the railroad line which linked Prague to Bratislava (IIRC the only such link within Czechoslovakia), but the way in which they grabbed the entire region left a lot of bad blood between the two governments.

However the Zaolzie issue is resolved ITTL, there is probably less bad blood there, opening the way for better Polish-Czech relations.
However it was not just Czechoslovakia grabbing Tesin in 1919. Already in late 1918 Polish troops invaded Slovak Spis region. Situation may develop many different ways from there. Especially as Czechoslovskia was in mid 1919 fighting war with Red Hungary.
 
IIRC without Tesin Czechoslovakia would need to import coal?
IOTL neither right nor left wingers were very happy about taking so much land in the east, but their intention was-better if we have it than Bolsheviks, and better if Soviets are as far from Warsaw as possible (also worth to note-Polish eastern border paralleled railroad from Równe/Rivne to Baranowicze, Poles didn't want Soviets to have this railroad). Untill very end of Second Polish Republic costs of keeping administration there was higher than revenue from taxes.
 
IIRC without Tesin Czechoslovakia would need to import coal?
There's plenty of coal right across the border in Austria, iirc Czechoslovakia upon independence took some villages and passes on the Austrian side for strategic reasons, just push the new border some kilometers further south.
 
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