No Plan Z, early Uboat expansion

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Deleted member 1487

You are doing the finances wrong. It improves UK finances. I thought the same way, until I worked through the details of my TL. Ok, lets take some very rough ballpark numbers for WW1. WW2 looks much the same. You start off with 10 million tons servicing empire and 3.5 million tons arriving in UK each month. Now lets say you sink 1% more ships, this means on the next cycle, you buy one 1% less goods. So the next cycle is 3.47 million tons, then 3.44 million tons. And with less buying, you lower prices due to less demand. The UK will not run out of money in your scenario.

That depends on whether the British start blowing money on US built ships. If they do that they costs go up, even as they are filled with US goods.

An easy mistake to make is to think that cancelled battleships can be converted into u-boats. But this isn't true! The constraining resources on u-boat production and deployment were not the availability of large shipyards and tons of steel. You have to find a lot of very specific precision engineering capability and train specialist crew. There's a pretty decent discussion of the concsiderable issues involved here:

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=181575
The problem with that is that the Germans managed to achieve the increases production pretty quickly here when they made it a priority. Also the Battleships won't be cancelled, but rather never planned in the first place; instead Uboats will be the focus from January 17th 1939. I'll read that thread again, I looked it over before posting this originally.

Ok sorry if I'm coming across as grumpy but really how often does this 'what if the Nazi's build more U-Boats?' idea need to be rehashed.

The Nazi's did not lose the war from a lack of U-Boats or jet fighters, or rockets. They lost because their leadership were a bunch of egotistical kleptocrats and delusionals working for a megalomaniac. They got lucky for a few years and when the luck ran out Germany was pummelled into the dirt. This sort of thread is just 'rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic'.
I appreciate your concerns. I posted this idea so that it would get push back; its the best way to find out what is plausible and what's not. As I posted before: thesis, antithesis, synthesis.

I checked the previous Uboat threads and found none that approached the subject with this POD, which to me at least seems more plausible and had less immediate consequences in terms of Allied responses.
I'd like your productive input, but if the concept is too irritating for you and you feel you can't constructively add to the discussion, perhaps you should avoid these threads.

Note too that I didn't say that the Germans were going to win because of this, but that it would add a different dynamic to the war that would have interesting consequences, like diverting Bomber Command from burning down central European cities.
 
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Considering that IOTL Germany constructed over 200 subs a years from 1941 on without affecting tank production, I don't see what the problem is.
The fact that in 1939 Germany wasn't on a war footing, and in addition didn't have the industrial resources from their OTL 1940 conquests. When you have to buy stuff with money, it can get expensive.
 

Deleted member 1487

The fact that in 1939 Germany wasn't on a war footing, and in addition didn't have the industrial resources from their OTL 1940 conquests. When you have to buy stuff with money, it can get expensive.

Germany was fully leveraged into war production by 1939; also in 1939 the production I'm referring to is not that much more material-wise than was spent both on Plan Z and the actual Uboat expansion. In fact in 1939 with the Plan Z ships not built at all, there would be enough resources around for the Uboats built IOTL (18) plus the additional (as suggested by blondieBC 24), especially once Poland in conquered, as it had significant resources in Upper Silesia and Teschen including iron and high quality coal among other valuable resources. France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway didn't really have much to offer in the way of natural resources, though France did have significant Bauxite mines. Luxembourg and Belgium were useful in that way, but Poland was just as significant, so would offer the necessary resources for the extra Uboats (75) over OTL (50) (125 altogether as suggested by BlondieBC).

The conquest of the West will yield significant resources without question, which would influence production from June 1940 on, so half of the year. As pointed out 199 is too ambitious for 1940, but 125, 2.5x as much as OTL once production is ramped up is doable, considering how many resources were being misallocated IOTL anyway; with a major project online the Germans IOTL usually found a way to streamline things for that project, even if it mean working out inefficiencies in bureaucracy.
 
So which ships are you scrapping? Also, do note that those surface ships weren't actually useless, they proved to be very good resources-sinks for the British as well as the Germans.
 
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Deleted member 1487

I'm following the discussion about Bomber Command and problems with bombing the U-boat pens. IMO y'all are missing the obvious solution to this- dropping mines. The same bombing missions that barely dented the concrete in Le Havre would've put the Uboat bases out of commission for months if they dropped (and kept dropping) mines. Being an asshole, I'd also do my best to sink every small craft in NE Europe I could to cripple the KM's ability to sweep 'em. Sucks for the French, Norwegian,and Dutch fishing fleets, but that's life.
Thanks for the ideas. Why didn't they do this IOTL then? I know they performed 'gardening' missions all the time, including on Uboat pens in the Baltic and I was under the impression that they did this in France too, but it just didn't work. Perhaps you has some information that I don't?
Also where are the British going to get the resources for all of this in 1940-1? They were on their back foot and needed to use everything they could for their ill-conceived by slavishly maintained Hunter-Killer groups until mid-1941.


As a sailor, mines are the ultimate dirty pool. Cheap, annoying as heck to sweep, but best bang for the buck in sea denial.
Follow that up by finding and taking out the Condor spotter planes and oilers/tenders to refuel/rearm/resupply the U-boats and they become a bunch of uncoordinated snipers that do damage but nowhere near OTL's happy time w/o changing tonnage in escorts. More U-boats won't help that problem.
The Condors were minimally responsible for anything; about 4 were functional at anytime in 1940 and barely 8 in 1941. Also the tonnage claims on the wikipedia page are 336k tons claimed. Also they were based out of Bordeaux, so its very hard to hit them.
The Sea Planes would be the better target, there were more of them, but then again, they are pretty hard to hit unless you shoot them out of the sky, which goes make to adequate resources for the task. In 1940-1 they weren't there. When the Biscay fighting starts then yes, there were the resources.

Also the British were hunting oilers and resupply ships as hard as they could IOTL, what more could they do there?

FWIW more escorts, escort carriers, and better convoy/ASW coordination still do a lot to ruin the wolf-packs' whole day but don't really get rolling until 1942, barring ASB intervention. Night ops makes that more of an even game.
That depends on production priorities/tactical concepts and breaking up the Hunter-Killer groups. If the greater number of uboats means that they start sinking a few more than IOTL, Churchill might stick with them for even longer. I don't know if conceptually Churchill and the Admiralty can give them up much before they historically did.

Germany investing in longer-range boats that can make the South Atlantic more hazardous to shipping would make it a lot more interesting. Still, this gives the Allies more reasons to build up airfields and ASW forces in Dakar, Ascension, Azores, Cape Town, and Rio to combat the threat. Brazil gets enough into the war earlier to get a Security Council seat afterwards! Plus, if you go for longer-endurance boats, that means a lot more resources per boat, therefore less boats. it took a LOT of tinkering to get to the Type XII with snorkels and so forth. No question with proper handling and tactics, they'd be nasty.
I didn't say they would invest in more larger boats, just that they would maintain the same mix as IOTL. Which means larger boats in the same numbers as OTL, just earlier when there was less protection everywhere.

Admiral King gets a lot of tomatoes thrown at him for being an Anglophobic douche that allowed the U-boats free rein for six months until he decided to get serious about ASW. A lot of merchant mariners and other sailors would be alive if he hadn't had his head up his rectum.
This is a wildcard.

So LSS- Coastal or Bomber Command getting a clue to the weaknesses of the U-boats make the increased U-boat numbers irrelevant.
Germany hoped it could build enough cheap Type VII boats to strangle the UK and maybe, they could have, if the US still takes a year-long ASW holiday and the Brits completely donate their brains to Aryan Science. Possible but unlikely.
Eventually they would shut down the Uboats, just like IOTL...its just a question of when. It may well be earlier with a greater threat, but the resources lost and the consequences to British production might make this harder to achieve as quickly if they cannot get the materials they need to the factories to make this happen.
The British are resource poor in the Home Isles: they don't produce enough food, enough coal, enough metals, any oil (at that time), any aluminum, etc.
If the Uboats start a nasty feedback loop and the British don't catch on quickly enough they might not be able to halt the downward spiral of losses; of course the could as well, but as IOTL it took the British and Americans a long time to get over their pre-conceived notions, arrogance, and develop the necessary experience to actually find out what works to halt the threat.
 

Deleted member 1487

So which ships are you scrapping?

I stated that in the OP. The Plan Z ships are not being scrapped, rather not being built at all. IOTL they were scrapped starting in 1939 after several months of construction when they were authorized in January 1939. Here they don't need to be scrapped because they aren't being built at all. I would scrap the Lützow and Peter Strasser in 1939 if I had my druthers.
 

Deleted member 1487

An easy mistake to make is to think that cancelled battleships can be converted into u-boats. But this isn't true! The constraining resources on u-boat production and deployment were not the availability of large shipyards and tons of steel. You have to find a lot of very specific precision engineering capability and train specialist crew. There's a pretty decent discussion of the concsiderable issues involved here:

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=181575

Just reread that thread, I was one of the posters on it.
There is very little about the subject of shipyard capacity, skilled labor, or crews. I've read extensively on the subject, including the Bundeswehrs history of it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany_and_the_Second_World_War
The first volume talks about the build up of the Uboat force pre-war and the constraint there, which indicate that the problems would have been solved by Plan Z not being enacted, as it tied up major amounts of skilled labor and dock space, which was the major constraint to ship production, not metal per se. The precision engineering capability was tied up for too long working on major warships, which, when freed up, were available for use on Uboats IOTL, which is why they were able to produce some 200 Uboats a year starting in 1941. Its just that the build up process wasn't started early enough and too much capacity was tied up first building major warship and then scrapping them in the dock space, which was filled to capacity by orders in the Plan Z program. Again, without Plan Z occupying the skilled labor and dock space, as well as resources (including the machining and forging capacity), then this would have been available for Uboats. Instead the expansion program was pushed back into 1940, as Plan Z construction wasn't cancelled until late October 1939 and it took several months to free up the labor and dock space, which was occupied scrapping what was already laid down. As a result it wasn't until Spring 1940 that Uboats could start to be laid down in greater numbers.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Originally Posted by amphibulous
An easy mistake to make is to think that cancelled battleships can be converted into u-boats. But this isn't true! The constraining resources on u-boat production and deployment were not the availability of large shipyards and tons of steel. You have to find a lot of very specific precision engineering capability and train specialist crew. There's a pretty decent discussion of the concsiderable issues involved here:

wiking
The problem with that is that the Germans managed to achieve the increases production pretty quickly here when they made it a priority.


Congratulations on completely missing the point. And failing to grasp basic logic: that Germans were later able to expand U-Boat production does NOT mean that the resources were cannibalized from battleships!!! No cookie.

This is important because the resources have to come from somewhere - and it isn't battleships, then it may well be a place the Germans are already dangerously low on hardware.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Just reread that thread, I was one of the posters on it.
There is very little about the subject of shipyard capacity, skilled labor, or crews.

More u-boats mean

- More pumps

- More electric engines and batteries

- More torpedoes

- More high performance diesels

- More optical systems for periscopes

It is far from evident that you will get more of these things by not building battleships.

As this thread says

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=151972

..this is one of these eternal "whackamole" topics that comes up over and over, never with an appreciation of the real constraints. Which have **virtually nothing to with battleship programs.**
 

amphibulous

Banned
Another example: in 1939, Germany is still a society where motor vehicles are rare. Complex machinery is much less common than in the US per capita - not just in total. How is Germany to find thousands of extra u-boat engineers? These are exactly the people that airforce and tank regiments most need, and **are critically short of**. The Germans are a thousand times more worried about surviving the land war on the continent than starving Britain out until after the - people always forget - unexpectedly fast, even to the Germans, fall of France.
 

Deleted member 1487

Another example: in 1939, Germany is still a society where motor vehicles are rare. Complex machinery is much less common than in the US per capita - not just in total. How is Germany to find thousands of extra u-boat engineers? These are exactly the people that airforce and tank regiments most need, and **are critically short of**. The Germans are a thousand times more worried about surviving the land war on the continent than starving Britain out until after the - people always forget - unexpectedly fast, even to the Germans, fall of France.

Overlooking your rudeness before, here we have a misunderstanding of what the German economy was predicated on. They were not set up to produce consumer goods pre-war because their consumer goods markets were shut off during WW1 and they were locked out of trade in these areas, which affects the automobile industry. Also its not that Germany produced few motor vehicles, it was that Germany was economically recovering from reparations and the average German couldn't afford a car. The skills needed for Uboat maintenance were different and could be trained up if needed: example was the fact that they were able to do so when they built hundreds of Uboats and needed crew for them. Engineers to maintain those engines were trained on other ships too and the training program could be and was expanded and directed toward Uboats historically.

What German industry was based on was large scale engineering projects; prior to WW1 they had the 2nd largest merchant shipping fleet in the world
and a massive shipbuilding industry; after WW1 it was downscaled, but not wiped out. Germany was the progenitor of electrical engineering and the related industries, all of which were critical in building Uboats and shipping; they had a strong export market for these types of industrial goods, which meshes nicely with the types of items that you listed above.

http://uboat.net/technical/industries.htm
Component parts industry for submarine building
From its start at the beginning of the 20th century the German submarine building rested on industrial firms manufacturing the many component parts going into submarines. Within a few years separate production lines developed. These special production lines are the reason why for almost 100 years there have been firms in Germany, which possess a near-monopoly on certain component parts for submarines. To these belong for example the Allgemeine-Elektrizitäts-Gesellschaft (AEG, Berlin), Brown, Boverie & Co. (BBC, Mannheim) and the Siemens-Schuckert AG (SSW, Berlin) for electrical engines, the former Accumulatoren Fabrik AG (today VARTA/VHB, Hagen) for battery facilities, and also the Maschinenfabrik Augsburg-Nürnberg (MAN, Augsburg) for diesel engines.

Since the years before World War I until today the Zeiss works in Jena have supplied most the high-technology periscopes for the German submarines. As in the case of shipbuilding there is a tradition of many years of production and sale in the component parts industry and in international tranfer of submarine technology. At the start of the creation of a new submarine fleet by the Federal republic of Germany the Daimler-Benz and the MTU concerns joined the suppliers of engines for example, and the Akkumulatorenwerke Wilhelm Hagen KG in Soest, property of the Svedish Tudor Group, as the VARTA Batterie AG in Hagen again, those of the large battery facilities in the boats.

The steel industry in the Ruhr areas
A similar role was played by the German steel and steel construction industry, which was located mainly in the Rhineland and Ruhr areas. It supplied for example the plates of special steel for the pressure and outer hulls. Besides the large Krupp concern in Essen the Klöckner works in Duisburg and Hagen, the Gute-Hoffnungs-Hütte in Oberhausen, Thyssen in Dortmund and Mülheim as well as the Dortmund-Hörder-Hüttenverein supplies those components for the submarine building. For example the Krupp works in Essen produced torpedo tubes and gearings and some small firms in the Ruhr valley among Essen and Arnsberg manufacturing special anchor chains for submarines. All of these firms had an long tradition in the building of parts for submarines since the German empire.

Following World War I, the Versailles agreement in 1919 forbade the construction and building of U-boats by Germany. However, the AFA did produce submarine batteries during the period between 1919 and 1933 for many foreign countries, most notably for the new Soviet submarine fleet. There were also extensive contracts with the Ingenieurbüro vor Schepbuilding in Holland.

With the rebuilding of the Kriegsmarine after 1933, the AFA increased its production of U-boat and Torpedo batteries. Many new battery types were constructed and an extensive research and development program was carried out at the Hagen plant.

Basically Uboat construction was nearly perfectly in Germany's industrial wheel house pre-war. In fact they were better positioned industrially to build up their Uboat fleet than their surface fleet.

Its a matter of priority rather than anything else for Germany. As it was Germany was able IOTL to go from 50 units in 1940 to 199 units in 1941. Where did the engineers come from for all of these Uboats? Especially in a period when there was major demand from the Luftwaffe and Heer and bother were expanding dramatically to meet the demands on all other fronts?

The answer was that they were already there, just utilized for other projects. There wasn't a shortage of engineers in the shipping industry if Uboats are prioritized over the Plan Z ships, which included far more than just Battleships:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Z
In the short time from the introduction of Plan Z on January 27, 1939 up to the beginning of war with the United Kingdom on September 3, 1939 only two of the plan's large ships, H class battleships, were laid down (a third one was only days from receiving its keel). At the time components of the three battlecruisers were in production.

At the beginning of the war the large ships ordered before Plan Z were 1 aircraft carrier, 4 battleships, 3 heavy cruisers and 6 light cruisers which were either ready for action or would be ready in the next months. 1 aircraft carrier, 2 heavy cruisers and 3 light cruisers were in early of stages of construction.

With the outbreak of World War II work on the H class battleships, the battlecruisers and even on some cruisers and the two aircraft carriers laid down before Plan Z was introduced was halted, because these large and expensive construction projects would require too much of war essential materials and the materials were diverted to the construction of U-boats.

And this doesn't count all of the smaller ships being constructed either: raiders, destroyers, mine layers, mine sweepers, torpedo boats, transports, etc.
 
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Then what about the following as a supplement for a plausibility check:

-1933-34: Hitler and co. decide to expand the technical educational front as part of the economic recovery packages, sending thousands of men to school to train as scientists, engineers, technicians, and mechanics. Limited job opportunities are allowed to grow as expansion continues and minimal-interest loans are used as a means of payment, and Berlin makes sure the universities comply. This later becomes an inspiration for the American GI bill. Exceptional students are allowed to go abroad with a written contract specifying their return, allowing several hundred students to escape under false names early in the program's history.

-1936-37: Newly minted scientists, engineers, technicians, and mechanics find employment as the first batch graduates and begins to develop/design new military equipment, accelerating designs slowly and improving existing models. Design bureaus and engineering workshops gladly take on additional hands after government incentives and design contracts cause economic expansion

-1939: Newer, more advanced designs emerge 6-12 months earlier and Germany has far more technicians and mechanics for her tanks/armored equipment. Submarines, among other weapon systems, are improved with Type IXc subs being available in March-June of 1940 (example; OTL January 1941).
 

amphibulous

Banned
Overlooking your rudeness before, here we have a misunderstanding of what the German economy was predicated on. They were not set up to produce consumer goods pre-war

I didn't say that they were. You are inventing a strawman.

The skills needed for Uboat maintenance were different and could be trained up if needed:

This is true of any skill. However, there is always a limited rate at which you can do this - and trade-offs have to be made. These have nothing to do with battleships!

example was the fact that they were able to do so when they built hundreds of Uboats and needed crew for them.

Yes. But the point - AGAIN! - is that what was reasonable to do in 1941 was NOT necessarily reasonable to do earlier! There were genuine constraints on u-boat building that it would have been foolish to ignore - and these had nothing to do with battleships!


What German industry was based on was large scale engineering projects; prior to WW1 they had the 2nd largest merchant shipping fleet in the world

What does the situation before WW1 have to do with anything? You're planning to man the u-boats with retired steam engine mechanics?

and a massive shipbuilding industry; after WW1 it was downscaled, but not wiped out.

Just very nearly so. There was a reason why the Germans had to plan on using **river barges** for Sea Lion!

Germany was the progenitor of electrical engineering and the related industries, all of which were critical in building Uboats and shipping;

And the UK was the progenitor of radio, sonar and radar. It still had to import valves from the USA in WW2: one thing has nothing to do with the other - inventing something doesn't mean that you'll produce sufficent supplies of it under all circumstance for all eternity.

The point is not, as you seem to think whether the Germans had ANY engineering capacity, but whether they were CONSTRAINED by the finite capacity they did have. And whther the constraints could be removed by stopping production of a few battleships. These are very different questions!
 

BlondieBC

Banned
That depends on whether the British start blowing money on US built ships. If they do that they costs go up, even as they are filled with US goods.

True. But that implies the UK could have bought more shipping IOTL and chose not to take that step. Have you read that this was true?
 
BlondieBC said:
There are two windows that the bombing could be a lot more effective. One is bombing while the pens are being built. If more aware of the problem of U-boats early, it is possible.
I'll concede, here.
BlondieBC said:
After the pens are built, you don't go for the pens, but flatten the roads and RR in the French towns near the pens to make logistics harder.
I don't think this is optimal use of aircraft. IMO, putting them over the approaches to St John's & Halifax makes way more sense.
BlondieBC said:
You do both.
Fair enough.
BlondieBC said:
The UK will not run out of money in your scenario.
Less money for commodities, but more desperation to replace lost shipping...& the Brits were paying way above market already before the Libertys came onstream.

Of course, if you have more built in Canada & Oz...:cool:
Grimm Reaper said:
On British bombers OTL "Bomber" Harris was unable to accept the lack of success enjoyed by Bomber Commanad in reality so there seems no reason that a weaker UK would continue to indulge his fantasies.
Given the increased threat earlier in the war TTL, IMO Harris could be butterflied out of BC. Even if he's not, the policy change (more a/c to CC) would be before he gets the job.:cool:
amphibulous said:
Excuse me - you're saying tha US controlled convoys steered FOR u-boats???
No. I'm saying USN escorts tended to prefer "prosecute to kill" over "avoid".

I'm taking the attitude of saving the settlers at the fort: if the supplies don't get through, you can kill every Indian you see & you'll still fail, 'cause there are always going to be more Indians.:eek:
amphibulous said:
In fact, the USN never got its act together on ASW
I have a strong suspicion IJN I-boat crews would disagree with you.:eek: Especially the six, all from one patrol line, that got sunk in the space of a day or so.:eek:

I suspect the crew of U-505 might disagree, too. You could ask them...:p
wiking said:
it would add a different dynamic to the war that would have interesting consequences, like diverting Bomber Command from burning down central European cities.
I'd agree, looking at that could be interesting. Not least because of the number of mistakes the Allies made fighting U-boats... (Many of which I posted upthread.:p)
TxCoatl1970 said:
I'm following the discussion about Bomber Command and problems with bombing the U-boat pens. IMO y'all are missing the obvious solution to this- dropping mines. The same bombing missions that barely dented the concrete in Le Havre would've put the Uboat bases out of commission for months if they dropped (and kept dropping) mines.
An excellent suggestion.:cool:

To which I'd add, if Bomber Command needs to be restrained, this is a good idea IMO.
TxCoatl1970 said:
maybe, they could have, if the US still takes a year-long ASW
TBH, I don't see changing that.:eek::rolleyes: Now, if you can get more DDs in the hands of RCN... What are the chances for FDR surplussing off more of the 4-pipers? (Yeah, you'd still need to have RN turn them over, fully crewed, to RCN command.:rolleyes: Which needs RN to realize the slow convoys are under threat longer, so they're really not ideal for {comparatively inexperienced} RCN escort to begin with...:rolleyes:)
wiking said:
I was under the impression that they did this in France too, but it just didn't work.
If Terraine is right, it worked nicely, it's just the bomber generals wanted to make rubble bounce.:rolleyes: Actually, it would have had very salutory effects on German war production, if done as a concentrated effort (per the linked thread), plus it would have dramatically reduced losses in aircrew & aircraft.:cool::cool:
wiking said:
breaking up the Hunter-Killer groups. ...I don't know if conceptually Churchill and the Admiralty can give them up much before they historically did.
Regrettably, I think you're right.:(
More u-boats mean

- More pumps

- More electric engines and batteries

- More torpedoes

- More high performance diesels

- More optical systems for periscopes
These do imply sacrifices in other areas... If it means Speer, or somebody, can get (or has to get) a more rational resource allocation, maybe the bottlenecks are solvable.

Either way, see Bomber Command's changed response...which could nicely bugger anything Germany does.:eek::cool:

Come to think of it, fewer 88s for AA might mean freeing up industrial production for periscopes...

For torpedo shortages, see my suggestion for sub mining.
 

Deleted member 1487

I didn't say that they were. You are inventing a strawman.
You very strongly implied it by comparing the lack of privately owned automobiles to Uboat engineers, which is frankly comparing apples to hammers. And speaking of strawmanning arguments, you've done a nice job cherrypicking my post.


This is true of any skill. However, there is always a limited rate at which you can do this - and trade-offs have to be made. These have nothing to do with battleships!
What is the rate then? In 1940 Germany trained 54 crews and had 50 Uboats under construction, in 1941 with 199 Uboats completed they trained 250 crews. That is a massive increase in a single year and indicates that it was the lack of planning for training expansion that limited the numbers of crews rather than any other factor. Unless you have contrary information the point stands.

http://uboat.net/men/training/effect_of_war.htm
War caused a change in the training program, for it was no longer practical to indulge in training at Flotilla level; such training was now reduced to a "practical" for prospective U-boat commanders under the eye of the most experienced captains. At the same time training capacity required for the expanded submarine war program had to be greatly increased. Thus on 16.11.1939 training was laid down for the following numbers of crews yearly:

1940 - 54 crews
1941 - 250 crews
1942 - 350 crews (and similarly per year thereafter).

If pre-war the training program was expanded and planned for a major expansion there is no reason that these numbers could have been scaled up sooner.

Yes. But the point - AGAIN! - is that what was reasonable to do in 1941 was NOT necessarily reasonable to do earlier! There were genuine constraints on u-boat building that it would have been foolish to ignore - and these had nothing to do with battleships!
Why not? You keep claiming it, but providing no evidence other than unsupported statements. What are these contraints? I've already demonstrated how your earlier points were not valid, as it was not the shortage of labor, dock space, engineering capacity, metal, etc, but rather the prioritization within the shipbuilding industry that was the constraint.


What does the situation before WW1 have to do with anything? You're planning to man the u-boats with retired steam engine mechanics?
That industry did not just evaporate, nor did the talent or experience. Germany was building ships both military and otherwise without pause between 1914-1945, though in the interwar years there was some slowdown, the capacities were there because the facilities were not destroyed and the workers not murdered. The people manning the Uboats would be the people that were used IOTL: sailors that were trained for the purpose as needed.

http://www.amazon.com/Neither-Sharks-Nor-Wolves-1939-1945/dp/1557505942
A very good history of the men of the Uboat arm. It delves into their training, their background (educationally too), and really digs into the German personnel files. The Kriegsmarine didn't destroy their files at the end of WW2, so the complete records are available to historians and Tim Mulligan does a social history to get into the guts of the training program, casualties, the expansion, etc. Basically it undercuts your hypothesis that there were limits on the crew side for how quickly men could be trained.

Just very nearly so. There was a reason why the Germans had to plan on using **river barges** for Sea Lion!
They didn't plan on invading Britain, so didn't build troop transports. Simple answer to that question, as it was not capacity, but planning. Britain didn't have a modern strategic bomber force at the start of WW2 either, but it wasn't because she lacked the capacity to build one.

And the UK was the progenitor of radio, sonar and radar. It still had to import valves from the USA in WW2: one thing has nothing to do with the other - inventing something doesn't mean that you'll produce sufficent supplies of it under all circumstance for all eternity.
Radio was developed in multiple countries at the same time, Germany invented radar in 1904 and then reinvented it in 1934. Sonar was developed by Germany and Britain independently within months of each other (1912-3).

My point is that Germany based her economy on these types of things and Britain was behind Germany in electrical engineering as an industry. As a result Germany had the capacity to build the types of equipment for the Uboats that no other nation at the time had the capacity to do so. Even between the wars Germany was building submarine components like electrical engines for other countries or clandestinely in the Netherlands.

While you're right that inventing something doesn't give you the permanent lead, the cartel system in place in Germany from its conception and through WW2 did give them a virtual monopoly in Europe on that type of production.

The point is not, as you seem to think whether the Germans had ANY engineering capacity, but whether they were CONSTRAINED by the finite capacity they did have. And whther the constraints could be removed by stopping production of a few battleships. These are very different questions!
Its not that they had unlimited capacity (thanks for strawmanning my argument again), but the capacity was under-utilized/could be built up relatively quickly once prioritized. The finite capacity proved to be around 200 Uboats a year once the prioritized Uboats over all other naval construction. They just needed to prioritize them to reach capacity, which could happen sooner if given that priority. Preventing three battleships, an aircraft carrier, two cruisers, three battlecruisers, several light cruisers, and several other vessels from starting construction between January 1939-October 1939 all of which were eventually scrapped and tied up valuable materials, dock space, skilled labor, engineering capacity, metal working capacity, forging capacity, etc. while also delaying the build up of training establishments for Uboat crews, delaying the build up of component construction, diverting labor, material, and engineering capacity for about a year all had a delaying effect on the ability of the Uboat arm to reach capacity earlier than it historically did.

As it was all of the ships started and cancelled, which again was three massive battleships dwarfing the Bismarck class ships, three battlecruisers, an aircraft carrier, 6 light cruisers, 3 heavy cruisers, and scores of smaller vessels, cost valuable materials, labor, space, time, etc.
Avoid having those resources poured into cancelled projects and the subsequent effort to scrap that work and the Uboat arm can start its expansion much earlier, nearly in fact one year earlier, especially as the new Uboats didn't need to be engineered/designed like the surface vessels did. The Uboats were completed on template, as they were nearly all of the same class, Type VIIC by 1939, enabling Germany to build up economies of scale, rather than needing to focus on building custom parts for a variety of different major warship classes of which there were only a few per class.
 

Deleted member 1487

True. But that implies the UK could have bought more shipping IOTL and chose not to take that step. Have you read that this was true?
Honestly no. Though given the eventual US production of ships, I think there was latent capacity there if the British didn't want to rely on their own production yards. As it was the British were short of foreign exchange, so if they relied on their own inherent production capacity (IIRC Britain+Commonwealth was over 600k tons of shipping a year), they could save their limited foreign exchange to buy war materials from the US, which demanded 'cash', while British and Commonwealth countries accepted on IOUs.
 

Deleted member 1487

These do imply sacrifices in other areas... If it means Speer, or somebody, can get (or has to get) a more rational resource allocation, maybe the bottlenecks are solvable.

Either way, see Bomber Command's changed response...which could nicely bugger anything Germany does.:eek::cool:

Come to think of it, fewer 88s for AA might mean freeing up industrial production for periscopes...

For torpedo shortages, see my suggestion for sub mining.

Except Germany had excess capacity for these things when prioritized. There are major benefits to starting the expansion of things like component construction and crew training pre-war, as it gives them the ability to properly plan rather than hastily throw something into motion at the last second. Plus earlier expansion of capabilities mean earlier reaching the realistic limit, which, as I stated before is about 200 Uboat a year. Of course Germany won't reach that perhaps as quickly as IOTL when ordered for the reasons that BlondieBC mentions, but it will happen earlier and mean more Uboats in the water when it matters.

As to 'gardening' missions, they were tried for the Rhein and various inland rivers, but they could only be done at night, which meant that accuracy was shit. They were really only semi-successful mining coastal areas in the North of Germany. I don't have much information about any attempts in France, so I'd be interested in anyone has any.
 
Wiking, can you please spell out the Kreigsmarine strength in 1940 and again in 1942 if your plan was followed?
 

Deleted member 1487

Wiking, can you please spell out the Kreigsmarine strength in 1940 and again in 1942 if your plan was followed?

Think that at the start of the war the number available would be around 79 for the following reason: IOTL there were 57 units ready in 1939, with 18 new units total built that year. Blondie stated that it took about 6 months to become operational once construction was complete, so I think we can assume that 8 of the 18 built were operational in September 1939. Subtracting that 8 from the OTL total of 57 gives us 49 that existed prior to pre-1939 construction. Let's assume that of the 43 I'm estimating are constructing ITTL in 1939 about 20 are operational by September, which is perhaps generous. That gives us 79, with more being active by the end of the year, but not all of 1939 construction is combat operational.

Revised estimates for new construction per year:
1939:~43
1940:~150
1941:~220
1942:~260
1943:~300+

Historical Losses:
1939
57 U-boats were capable of going out to sea when the war began in September 1939. When the year ended 9 of them had been lost.

1940
24 boats were lost in 1940. U-31 was actually sunk twice so she appears twice in that number.

1941
35 boats were lost during 1941.

1942
The U-boat fleet lost 86 boats during this year, most of them in the latter half the year. A sign of things to come ...

I'm predicting the following losses:
1939:12
1940:38
1941:60
1942:114

So here we have 79 in September 1939, with more 23 being finished by the end of the year. That gives us 102, but probably 5-10 of these are still not operational after construction by January 1st 1940.
Subtracting OTL losses of 9 boats, that gives us 93, with perhaps a few more being lost ITTL, let's say 3.

So we have 90 Uboats by January 1st 1940, with let's say 7 still shaking out.
So we have 83 operational boats, minus repairs or whatever, which if we stick with Dönitz's numbers of 1/3rd being on station at any one time means about 27-8 boats in the water on combat patrols.

I'm assuming that for a given year by the end about 1/3rd of that year's production is still 'shaking out' after construction, so won't be combat operational for several months.

So final list of total strength after losses/minus boats 'shaking out' after construction/on station as of December 31st of the year:
1939:90/7/28
1940:202/50/51
1941:362/73/96
1942:508/87/140

I'll also revise my prediction of the new total losses to Uboats, because this is a smaller number than I suggesting in the OP:
1939:~1 million tons
1940:~5 million tons
1941:6 million tons
1942:8-9 million tons

But again historic losses to all other causes:
http://www.usmm.org/wsa/shiploss.html
http://uboat.net/ops/combat_strength.html
1939:~300k tons
1940:~2.2 million tons
1941:~2.4 million tons
1942:~2.5 million tons

So assuming all else remains the same here are the total losses to Allied shipping ITTL:
1939:~1.3 million tons
1940:~7.2 million tons
1941:~8.4 million tons
1942:~10.5-11.5 million tons
 
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