No Plague of Justinian: Effects?

The Plague of Justinian depopulated the entire Mediterranean region between 541 and 542, hitting the Byzantine Empire in the crucial moment as it was in the progress of reclaiming the Mediterranean region.

Now, assuming the Plague doesn't happen, what are the long-term effects?

- Could the Byzantine Empire hold to what Justinian gained, and perhaps even restore it's control over the Mediterranean in long term and for example end Visigothic control over Iberia, and perhaps even defeating the Franks, or would this overexpand the Byzantine's resources even without the Plague, and would it demise anyways?

- Assuming that Islam isn't butterflied away for obscure reason due to the absence of the Plague, would a stronger this prevent the Arabs from conquering Egypt and the Levante as they did in OTL? What effect would this have on the development of Islam in the ATL?

- What would happen with the Persian Empire in this TL, and how would Perso-Byzantine relations look like in long term?
 

Germaniac

Donor
The Plague of Justinian did more to end the Byzantine Roman Empire than either Myriokephalon or Manzikert combined. The Plague occured at a time when the Roman Empire (as it should really be called!) was reasserting itself on the Mediterranean and was in the Process of reconquering the Western Empire.

However when the Plague struck the Empire lost a HUGE manpower base and a HUGE income base. Without the proper funds to pay for conquest or the manpower to make up for losses in battle. An estimate of the total losses is probably close to or more than 25% of the Eastern Empires population (Not including new reconquests)

Had the Empire not suffered the Plague it likely would have retaken the whole of Italy and Spain, and very possibly retaken most of Gaul. Justian would have recreated the Western Empire as a seperate part but under the command of the Eastern Empire. With the West secure the Byzantine Romans will turn to the east and while a series of wars with them will still be fought the Byzantine Romans will have the upper hand having a larger manpool and tax base to draw from.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Also Islam is almost certainly butterflied away and also the Christian Church might break up by who is part of the Roman Empire and who is not.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Also Islam is almost certainly butterflied away and also the Christian Church might break up by who is part of the Roman Empire and who is not.

Yes, Islam is certainly butterflied away. On the timeline I am working on (Which I might post the first part soon, but I want more than one part in waiting.) I am not trying to do a "No Islam" timeline, but with a POD as early as 600, I think I can safely butterfly Islam away. In fact, I feel like I am jumping through mental rings merely in allowing a religion close to Islam to arise. (But that is a good ways away.)
 
The Plague of Justinian did more to end the Byzantine Roman Empire than either Myriokephalon or Manzikert combined. The Plague occured at a time when the Roman Empire (as it should really be called!) was reasserting itself on the Mediterranean and was in the Process of reconquering the Western Empire.

However when the Plague struck the Empire lost a HUGE manpower base and a HUGE income base. Without the proper funds to pay for conquest or the manpower to make up for losses in battle. An estimate of the total losses is probably close to or more than 25% of the Eastern Empires population (Not including new reconquests)

Had the Empire not suffered the Plague it likely would have retaken the whole of Italy and Spain, and very possibly retaken most of Gaul. Justian would have recreated the Western Empire as a seperate part but under the command of the Eastern Empire. With the West secure the Byzantine Romans will turn to the east and while a series of wars with them will still be fought the Byzantine Romans will have the upper hand having a larger manpool and tax base to draw from.

The plague didn't just hit the empire - it hit most of the rest of "civilized" Europe and the Mid East too. It also savaged Persia, it caused the downfall of polities in Arabia that led to the emergence of Islam, etc. I don't think it's a given at all that the Byzantines would have retaken everything. Their conquests were to a large extent opportunistic - facing a serious and determined enemy, it would have been pretty difficult to take anything in Western Europe, especially with a massive Persia on the other border.
 
I suspect that you would see the following things

- A less devastated Italy, that, while it may still take a while to reconquer, will recover better in the fifteen years of Roman peace, and be able to resist the Lombards more effectively.

- A Roman reconquest of Spania and Septimania, thus restoring the Pax Romana to the entire Mediterranean coastline. I think a full restoration of the Empire; including Francia/Gaul and Anglia/Britannia is probably pushing it though.

- No Islam, needless to say.

- Possibly Roman/Persian attempts to conquer the Arabian coastlines fully rather than just having trade influence; the Romans spent much of the sixth century trying to outflank the Persians to trade with India this way. In OTL, the plague slowed down these attempts, and led to a loss of Roman influence and interest in Arabia, which was critical to the rise of Islam. In a "no Justinianic Plague" scenario, I could see the Romans occupying Mecca and Medina as well as much of the Red Sea, to break the Persian monopoly.
 
The plague didn't just hit the empire - it hit most of the rest of "civilized" Europe and the Mid East too.

Well, I knew that it didn't just hit the Byzantines alone (pandemics never stop at a country's border, as we know ;) ), but I previously was under the assumption that it was something that largely affected only the Mediterranean region, and I'm surprised to find it out that the effect was much farther spread than just the areas bordering the Mediterranean. ;)

It also savaged Persia, it caused the downfall of polities in Arabia that led to the emergence of Islam, etc. I don't think it's a given at all that the Byzantines would have retaken everything.

A question: could Islam emerge in Arabia anyways, although much less succesful, perhaps taking more of the role of an "underdog religion", just like Christianity started out? Although, probably that'd result in what Nikephoros said, namely the emergence of a religion similar to Islam, but not to the emergence of the Islam we know from OTL.

Their conquests were to a large extent opportunistic - facing a serious and determined enemy, it would have been pretty difficult to take anything in Western Europe, especially with a massive Persia on the other border.

Well, in a way, so were the conquests by the Arabs a century later. Which leads me to the question if we might see the spectacular downfalls of the Visigothic Kingdom and the Persian Empire in an ATL, analogous to OTL (kind of a disturbing thought, given how I don't like the idea of a Byzantine Wank, and I find both the Persians and the Visigoths far cooler! :eek:). Then again, probably not, especially with the Persian Empire, which would be (from what I take that you mentioned) in a much better shape without the Plague of Justinian.
 
Heh, I'm reading a book about this right now. I'll be able to give a more informed response when I finish it. ;)

I imagine that Africa would remain part of the empire, that the conquest of Italy would probably stick and that Spain would be conquered. Basically waht the other posters have been saying...
 
Bump.

I'm interested on the effects on language: If Spain, Africa and Italy are reconquered, I would think that Latin would remain the official language of the empire, maybe?
 

Germaniac

Donor
Bump.

I'm interested on the effects on language: If Spain, Africa and Italy are reconquered, I would think that Latin would remain the official language of the empire, maybe?

Greek was already the official language of the eastern empire, as least de facto official.
 
As I've stated in previous threads on this topic, there is another interesting side effect of the Plague of Justinian which often gets forgotten. The Anglo-Saxon conquest of Britain might have been thwarted, had the plague not struck.

The Romano-British inhabitants of Britain had, after almost a century of getting kicked around by the Anglo-Saxon invaders, finally inflicted a devastating defeat on the invaders (Badon Hill, c. 490 AD) which had actually caused them to abandon large areas which they previously occupied and retreat into much smaller coastal enclaves (this may or may not have been the work of a leader who became known in later histories and legends as Arthur). For nearly 50 years afterward, the invaders were mostly confined to their coastal enclaves, and the Britons had relative peace.

Then, the Plague of Justinian (known locally as the Yellow Plague) struck. The Romano-Britons were savaged by the plague, while the Saxons were virtually unaffected (scholars think this was because the Romano-Britons had maintained trade contacts with the continent, but the Saxons were basically isolated during those years). Shortly afterward, the Saxons again came out of their enclaves, and this time, found most of the interior of the island virtually depopulated. They swept away the pitiful survivors of the various Romano-British kingdoms outside of Wales and Cornwall by the end of the 6th century.

Had the Plague not come, the Saxons may have finally been pushed back into the sea by resurgent Romano-British power. But the plague did come, such was not to be.
 
Germaniac said:
Greek was already the official language of the eastern empire, as least de facto official.

My bad. Still, the linguistic effects of Greek being spread throughout the Med could be pretty interesting.

robertp6165 said:
Had the Plague not come, the Saxons may have finally been pushed back into the sea by resurgent Romano-British power. But the plague did come, such was not to be.

Interesting. I didn't know this. Something to add:

The population rebound from the plague was considerably higher in Western Europe than in the Empire. So Western Europe in the long run could have a much smaller population.
 
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