No Peninsular War

Niko Malaka said:
Very interesting link.

Thanks, but the one who should be praised is Zach, the one who wrote the Timeline. It's great and I hope he can finish it one day :)

Niko Malaka said:
A little correction: Ferdinand had no problem with the alliance with the french. Or if he had, he had not the guts to express it. His problem was with Godoy, also disliked by the french (and by everybody and the cat, except Charles IV and his wife). In fact, he expected the french to sanction his coup d'etat against his father, that's the reason he accepted to meet Napoleon in Bayonne. OTOH, Junot's tentacles were well placed inside Ferdinand's circle. Of course, the spanish people was not so sure about that alliance. also, without the french troops in sapin, the Fernandistas probably have not a good option to overthrow Charles IV and Fernindand must face a trial for conspiration against the king (he had tried it before), as scheduled in OTL.

Thanks for correcting me. I didn't really knew the details about the problems between Charles IV and his son Ferdinand.

Niko Malaka said:
-No Treaty of Fontainebleau. The better way to get this scenario is removing Godoy. Not too difficult, as said, he had tons of enemies.

Without a Treaty of Fontainebleau, will the Spanish be motivated to attack Portugal?

Also, even without Godoy, we could have a Treaty of Fontainbleau that wouldn't be the same as OTL as Godoy won't be negociating it.

Niko Malaka said:
-The french respect the Treaty of Fontainebleau. That means a lot of less french troops marching through Spain, so a quick british move could frustrate the french intentions. Anyway we should take into account the spanish army in this scenario.

Considering how well the Spanish did in their guerilla tactics in OTL, I'd say having the Spanish army marching alongside the French will probably result in the doom of Portugal, even with British help.

Niko Malaka said:
-Napo is clever enough and decides to endorse Fernidand's coup letting him as a (more) puppet king in Spain. That implies that Napoleon should have some actual konwledge about the spanish reality instead of contemptuous stereotypes.

Well, Marshall Junot was one of Napoleon's close friend. If I'm not wrong, Napoleon met Junot at the siege of Toulon, in 1796. Back there, Napoleon had just been promoted General and Junot was only a Sergeant.

Maybe Junot could convince Napoleon that the best way to get the alliance of Spain is to remove Charles IV and place Ferdinand on the throne. I don't know how likely this is though as I have no idea how were the relations between Junot and Napoleon at the time.

Oberkoomando said:
Spain would much easier hold her colonies (due to the fact that she wouldn't have lost her fleet). This would actually change history quite a bit...

Niko Malaka said:
Well, after Cape San Vincente and Trafalgar the spanish fleet had no many chances against the brits, and the contact with the Americas was, to say the least, disrupted.

Agreed. After Trafalgar, the British had proven to be the masters of the sea and Spain's fleet was badly damaged if not destroyed. Thus, the Spanish would have not an easier but a harder time keeping their colonies in check.
 
Considering how well the Spanish did in their guerilla tactics in OTL, I'd say having the Spanish army marching alongside the French will probably result in the doom of Portugal, even with British help.

The Spanish Army was not the guerrillas though. The officer class was incompetent, full of nepotism and shoddy to say the least. Gody had attempted to reform it after the failure of previous conflicts but had accomplished little in the face of overwhelming opposition. If there was to be an invasion of Portugal, Spain would be the Italy to France's Germany.
 

KCammy

Banned
I thought the whole intention of the peninsular war was to draw Napoleon into a second front? A deliberate attempt by Britain and Portugal to overstretch France.

At this time Spain was NOT in any position to resisit Britain's troops pouring through.

So the peninsular war was essential in giving the war to Britain and her allies.
 
KCammy said:
I thought the whole intention of the peninsular war was to draw Napoleon into a second front? A deliberate attempt by Britain and Portugal to overstretch France.

At this time Spain was NOT in any position to resisit Britain's troops pouring through.

So the peninsular war was essential in giving the war to Britain and her allies.

While it's true that the Peninsula War opened a second front against Napoleon, I doubt it was a deliberate action from the British.
The Portuguese were traditionnal British allies : this is why they refused to apply the Continental Blockade. To remove this threat, Napoleon sent Marshall Junot and an army against Portugal and the French armies marched through Spain with Spanish agreement.
When Portugal was occupied, the British helped the Portuguese fleet as well as the Portuguese Royal Family and nobility escape to Brazil. The British later send Wellington whose first mission was to get Portugal free.

But the real reason for the Peninsula War was Napoleon's meddling in the Spanish affairs : crowning his elder brother Joseph as King of Spain was probably one of Napoleon's most stupid ideas.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
The Peninsular War was not an attempt to open a second front. When the French invaded the British hurridly sent Wellesey's Corps, which was just about to embark for Venezula, and Moore's Corps, which had just returned from Sweden (the threat there having gone away). They were reinforced by Baird's Corps, Sherbrooke's Division, Craufurd's Light Brigade and a large body of cavalry (5 brigades) was also en route before Moore was defeated. It was initially a scratch force, then reinforced as quickly as possible (but not quickly enough) when it was wildly successful.

The British continued to consider the low countries their main theatre of operations. The Walcheran expeditionary force of 1809 was comparitively huge.
 
Without a Treaty of Fontainebleau, will the Spanish be motivated to attack Portugal?

Also, even without Godoy, we could have a Treaty of Fontainbleau that wouldn't be the same as OTL as Godoy won't be negociating it.

Hmmm, it's a good question. Spain and France declared war upon Portugal for the first time in 1801. It's known as the "Oranges War" for some ridiculous anecdote related to oranges that I have forgot. It lasted only 18 days, even before the french troops had time to intervene, with the impresive result of Spain getting the megapolis of Olivenza and surrounding territory. To say the truth the war had a more interesting story and outcome in the Americas, in what is nowadays the brazilian region of Missoes, in Rio Grande do Sul if I'm not wrong, always a troublesome frontier, but I digress. As I said, in 1801, also with Godoy as Prime Minister, Spain and France signed the Treaty of Madrid, compromising Spain to invade Portugal if Portugal continued defying the Continental Blockade. After the spanish army occupied a part of the Alentejo with no much resistence, the two countries signed a treaty (Treaty of Badajoz) that Napoleon didn't liked, then the french imposed harsher conditions to Portugal, but obviously they finally ognored the part about the Continental Blockade.

So, it's possible that, except Godoy (remember also that the Treaty of Fontainebleau reserved a third of Portugal to create Godoy's own kingdom) no one in Spain had much interest on invading Portugal. OTOH, after the painful defeats against the british in the sea, the disrruption of the traffic in the Atlantic and the problems of supplying, the reluctance to follow the french in armed actions was growing in Spain. But of course politics, pragmatism and national interest are three different things and as said, even in Ferdinand's circle the french had managed to have influence, and Spain was in the way of becoming a french satellite, if it wasn't yet. So, as you say, there is the possibility of an alternate Treaty of Fontainebleau sans Godoy.

Considering how well the Spanish did in their guerilla tactics in OTL, I'd say having the Spanish army marching alongside the French will probably result in the doom of Portugal, even with British help.

Well, the spanish regular army was not the guerrilla, and the scenario they would find in Portugal would be very different to the total war during the french occupation. Furthermore, some of the better units of the spanish army where in Denmark to help the french against the Swedish, as someone noted. That said, the portuguese army wasn't either the best army in the world, and even the not so good spanish army managed to inflict the Grand Armée their first major defeat in Bailén. I think it would depend in how quick the franco-spanish army moves, and how quick the anglo-portuguese forces react.

Well, Marshall Junot was one of Napoleon's close friend. If I'm not wrong, Napoleon met Junot at the siege of Toulon, in 1796. Back there, Napoleon had just been promoted General and Junot was only a Sergeant.

Maybe Junot could convince Napoleon that the best way to get the alliance of Spain is to remove Charles IV and place Ferdinand on the throne. I don't know how likely this is though as I have no idea how were the relations between Junot and Napoleon at the time.

I'm not sure if Napoleon was the sort of person who changes his mind once they have took a decision. But as you, I have no idea about the sate of his relations with Junot at the time, nor about Napoleon's psicological quibbles. OTOH, Junot and other french offcials had good information about the spanish situation in the high spheres, political and palace intriges etc, but I don't think they knew very much about the spanish people, the spanish opinion (it was difficult to know at the time) and the nature of spanish institutions and juridical traditions (the latter, in my opinion their greatest fail).

By the way, it could be a very interesting POD for a TL.

Cheers.
 
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The principal effect of no Peninsula War would have been a different Latin America independence movement. It would have been delayed and more drawn out with certain parts probably staying longer with Spain.
When the French invaded the British hurriedly sent Wellesley's Corps, which was just about to embark for Venezuela,
I think the main change would be in Spain remaining a French Ally, and GB invading the Colonies.
No Idea why they were starting with Venezuela.:confused:
 
DuQuense said:
I think the main change would be in Spain remaining a French Ally, and GB invading the Colonies.

If there is No Peninsula War, there is a good chance Spain will remain a French ally. But I doubt the British will invade Spanish colonies : New Spain is a far too large territory.

Of course, the British could grab Cuba and other Spanish Carribean Islands as well as Patagonia and maybe Venezuela as they have interests there.

As for Mexico, Central America and South America, these are too vast territories the British can handle and they're not worth much (they were costing a lot to the Spanish). What the British would probably do is supporting Indepence movements there or ask the Portuguese to attack so that Brazil is enlarged.

DuQuense said:
No Idea why they were starting with Venezuela.:confused:

My guess would be because Venezuela is close to the British colony of Guyana and not far from Brazil which is under the Portuguese allies of Britain. So it would be easier to reinforce the troops attacking Venezuela.
 
Well he was gathering an army in Denmark to do this - thats where he had a whole Spanish division ready to embark on this.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

36 000 men, yes. Guarded against by 7 000 Swedes in Scania.

There was no way for the French to cross into Sweden, thus they were not considered a threat.
 
If there is No Peninsula War, there is a good chance Spain will remain a French ally. But I doubt the British will invade Spanish colonies : New Spain is a far too large territory.

Not only did such plans exist, but they had already started to be put in action when the Peninsular War broke out. There were additional plans to invade Mexico and Chile (the Chile force after seizing Santiago was supposed to strike out across the Andes and link up with the force at Buenos Aires. IIRC it had something like 4,000 men assigned to it for this mission...) which were cancelled after the Peninsular War broke out.

My guess would be because Venezuela is close to the British colony of Guyana and not far from Brazil which is under the Portuguese allies of Britain. So it would be easier to reinforce the troops attacking Venezuela.
As has already been mentioned it was because of the influence of Francisco de Miranda, who was based in London at the time.
 
Furthermore, some of the better units of the spanish army where in Denmark to help the french against the Swedish, as someone noted.

15,000 men under the Marguis de la Romana, one of the best Spanish generals of the period. Incidentally in an interesting demonstration of just how dominant the Royal Navy was in Danish waters in this period, after the war broke out the majority of these men were lifted out by the RN and return to Spain where they played an important role in the liberation of Galicia in late 1808 and the Asturias in 1809.
 
Nelson had already killed that idea at Trafalgar...

But, the French soldiers would be somewhat more plentiful, and there would be much more morale. What then?!?

I don't remember who said this, but it went something like, "There are easy wars and hard wars. Wars can be easily won if the people in an invaded nation like their liberators then their own government; but it is hard to win a war when you know back home, they are rotting for the other side."
 
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