Niko Malaka said:Very interesting link.
Thanks, but the one who should be praised is Zach, the one who wrote the Timeline. It's great and I hope he can finish it one day
Niko Malaka said:A little correction: Ferdinand had no problem with the alliance with the french. Or if he had, he had not the guts to express it. His problem was with Godoy, also disliked by the french (and by everybody and the cat, except Charles IV and his wife). In fact, he expected the french to sanction his coup d'etat against his father, that's the reason he accepted to meet Napoleon in Bayonne. OTOH, Junot's tentacles were well placed inside Ferdinand's circle. Of course, the spanish people was not so sure about that alliance. also, without the french troops in sapin, the Fernandistas probably have not a good option to overthrow Charles IV and Fernindand must face a trial for conspiration against the king (he had tried it before), as scheduled in OTL.
Thanks for correcting me. I didn't really knew the details about the problems between Charles IV and his son Ferdinand.
Niko Malaka said:-No Treaty of Fontainebleau. The better way to get this scenario is removing Godoy. Not too difficult, as said, he had tons of enemies.
Without a Treaty of Fontainebleau, will the Spanish be motivated to attack Portugal?
Also, even without Godoy, we could have a Treaty of Fontainbleau that wouldn't be the same as OTL as Godoy won't be negociating it.
Niko Malaka said:-The french respect the Treaty of Fontainebleau. That means a lot of less french troops marching through Spain, so a quick british move could frustrate the french intentions. Anyway we should take into account the spanish army in this scenario.
Considering how well the Spanish did in their guerilla tactics in OTL, I'd say having the Spanish army marching alongside the French will probably result in the doom of Portugal, even with British help.
Niko Malaka said:-Napo is clever enough and decides to endorse Fernidand's coup letting him as a (more) puppet king in Spain. That implies that Napoleon should have some actual konwledge about the spanish reality instead of contemptuous stereotypes.
Well, Marshall Junot was one of Napoleon's close friend. If I'm not wrong, Napoleon met Junot at the siege of Toulon, in 1796. Back there, Napoleon had just been promoted General and Junot was only a Sergeant.
Maybe Junot could convince Napoleon that the best way to get the alliance of Spain is to remove Charles IV and place Ferdinand on the throne. I don't know how likely this is though as I have no idea how were the relations between Junot and Napoleon at the time.
Oberkoomando said:Spain would much easier hold her colonies (due to the fact that she wouldn't have lost her fleet). This would actually change history quite a bit...
Niko Malaka said:Well, after Cape San Vincente and Trafalgar the spanish fleet had no many chances against the brits, and the contact with the Americas was, to say the least, disrupted.
Agreed. After Trafalgar, the British had proven to be the masters of the sea and Spain's fleet was badly damaged if not destroyed. Thus, the Spanish would have not an easier but a harder time keeping their colonies in check.