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Hello, all!

I’m considering writing a Napoleonic victory timeline. I have a number of ideas in mind, but wanted to bring them up for discussion first. This way I hope to avoid elements of a “Napoleon wins at Waterloo and then invades England”-level of implausibility and won’t have to go back and revise a heavily-flawed TL.

I’ve seen in pointed out many times that avoiding the Peninsular War is Napoleon’s best bet to save his empire, and I’m inclined to agree. I think I might have found a plausible way to accomplish it. Napoleon’s ultimatum to Portugal after the Treaty of Tilsit had four demands: Portugal would close her ports to British trade, declare war on Britain, seize British subjects, and confiscate British property. Prince João agreed to the first three, but his refusal to confiscate British property triggered the war. Thus, my POD would be for the prince to accept Napoleon’s fourth demand and join the Continental System. Without French troops moving through Spain, the Spaniards are less likely to rebel against Charles IV and Godoy. Napoleon would thus lack the pretext and the conveniently-placed troops to intervene in the rule of Spain, unknowingly saving himself a great deal of trouble. Obviously, this would have profound consequences.


In Britain

IOTL, Napoleon’s invasion of the Peninsula effectively saved the British economy: his attempt to shut Spain and Portugal to British only provided them with new markets. Between 1807 and 1809 in Spain, British exports rose from £1.7 million to £6.7 million, and by 1812, a fifth of British exports were going to Spain! The war further opened Spanish markets in the Americas, and exports to Brazil more than doubled from 1807 to 1812.

Without the Peninsular War, with Spain and Portugal’s Peninsular and American ports closed to the British, the economic situation should continue to deteriorate. Is it far-fetched for the British to consider making peace in 1808 or 1809? McLynn’s book claims that, “after Tilsit, both George III and Canning were in favour of an accommodation with Napoleon.” With the additional economic strain and stronger Napoleonic France, I submit that such an accommodation would be reached. Likely gaining a few colonies in the settlement, Britain would emerge from the Napoleonic Wars ruling the waves even more than IOTL.


In the colonies

Without an Iberian theater, I theorize that the British would focus a greater military effort in the Americas. IOTL, in large part due to the suggestion of Venezuelan revolutionary Francisco de Miranda, a force under Wellesley was preparing to invade South America in 1808 before it was sent to Portugal. ITTL, the invasion of Venezuela could go ahead as planned. How successful could this invasion be? An independent, British-allied Venezuelan state under Miranda seems reasonable, but could the British take more? Might they continue their earlier efforts to seize Buenos Aires? There are also Portuguese colonies to consider. The British would likely attempt to sever Brazil from Portugal and grab a few additional Portuguese possessions.

One issue I foresee is the question of how these seized territories will be administered; while Britain will certainly want to annex a few islands, annexing a sizeable amount of American lands could be problematic. The Iberian Americans wouldn’t long remain on Britain’s side if they would merely become British subjects, I suspect. Assuming independence is the final result, are the new states republics or monarchies?


On the continent

The absence of the Spanish Ulcer can only be beneficial for Napoleonic France. Militarily, the situation is much improved: Napoleon does not lose 50,000 men each year to British troops and Spanish guerillas, but retains a much stronger position in Central Europe. France and her allies would doubtless lose a number of colonies to Britain in the peace settlement, and the peace might end up being merely an Amiens II, but Napoleon would gain some breathing space and the opportunity to focus on internal matters.

An *1809 conflict with Austria is unlikely to materialize for multiple reasons. The Austrians would have much less confidence facing a united Grande Armée than they would the distracted and divided French forces of OTL. Emperor Francis further lacks some of the political motivation for pursuing a war. First, the Braganzas and Spanish Bourbons have not been unceremoniously dethroned, so Francis won’t fear for the end of the Habsburgs. Secondly, if Napoleon manages to secure peace with Britain and end the Continental System, he won’t need to go on his annexation-spree to enforce it, avoiding the OTL alienation of Vienna. The absence of British subsidies would be a final motivation to avoid war. Austria couldn’t afford the war without them IOTL.

An *1812 conflict with Russia might similarly be postponed, but not eliminated. Though Alexander would be thrilled when peace with Britain ends the Continental System, a conflict over Poland and the Balkans cannot be avoided indefinitely. If the French don’t invade in 1812, though, the Russians could do much better against the Ottomans than IOTL. Could Alexander’s desire for Constantinople spoil an Anglo-Russian alliance a few years down the road? An early Crimean War sounds thrilling, but the idea of Britain allying with a Napoleonic France might be too much, too soon.

As Europe settles down to a period of relative peace, Napoleon would inevitably begin to think about his dynasty. He would still divorce Josephine and Marie Louise of Austria seems the most likely replacement. A Russian bride just isn’t in the cards. A marriage between France and Austria without the bitterness of an *1809 campaign could be the seed of a more successful Franco-Austrian alliance. When the conflict with Russia inevitably erupts, the Habsburgs might be promised Moldavia and Wallachia.

Prussia is something of a wildcard in European affairs. Frederick William is definitely no firm ally of Napoleon’s, but if his OTL record is anything to go by, he won’t want to turn against him until victory seems assured. If Prussia sides with Russia and loses again, though, it’s over. Napoleon wanted to totally partition Prussia at Tilsit, but he held back. If Frederick William betrays him again, Silesia is going to Austria, Prussia to the Duchy of Warsaw, and Brandenburg to the Confederation of the Rhine.

In Spain, Ferdinand still might stir up trouble against Godoy and his father, but if he does so after peace is made, I don’t see Napoleon putting Joseph on the throne. With no more Continental System, Napoleon wouldn’t have the same motivations. He’ll support Ferdinand because of his hatred for Godoy and will certainly support any efforts to impose a constitution on the Spanish monarchy.


Those are my thoughts for now. Suggestions? Questions? Fundamental disagreements?
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