No Pearl Harbour raid. Victory for Japan?

[Peg Leg Pom]

It certainly is. Discipline at its core requires following orders, and punishing those who don't. This had completely broken down in the IJA on a macro scale. Sure you could have officers exacting punishment, but not for the behavior actually being discussed, because if they tried they got shot. Being willing to shoot your own officers for not being zealous enough in pursuit of victory(tm) IS indiscipline.

Troops have been knocking off officers they consider either incompetent or cowards since organised warfare began.

 

[marathag]

The Japanese were ill-disciplined?
So they were better disciplined around Port Arthur in 1905? And where ever they were deployed in WWI?

IJN was doing anti-submarine work in the Mediterranean in 1917, and had three cruisers there as well. The British thought them far more professional than the French and Italians

 

[GDIS Pathe]

IJN was doing anti-submarine work in the Mediterranean in 1917, and had three cruisers there as well. The British thought them far more professional than the French and Italians

Oh how things change

 

[wcv215]

It would be indiscipline to kill a POW if that was with no orders or against orders. You are assuming the officer has not simply issued the order to shoot in the first place, or a blanket standing order that POW lives matter not at all. If that is the case, on the contrary, there is no indiscipline by the soldier.

You're ignoring the point. Officers who TRIED to stop the behavior couldn't.

Troops have been knocking off officers they consider either incompetent or cowards since organised warfare began.

And?

This point is completely irrelevant. Nations don't tend to let their lower ranking soldiers and officers dictate national policy. Japan basically started the Second Sino-Japanese War because the men acted and no one higher up could tell them no.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

And?

This point is completely irrelevant. Nations don't tend to let their lower ranking soldiers and officers dictate national policy. Japan basically started the Second Sino-Japanese War because the men acted and no one higher up could tell them no.

You were talking about soldiers killing officers because they disagree with their actions. This happens in every army at some point and is not indicative of a universal indiscipline. The problem with the IJA was that relatively junior officers thought they should make policy, not indiscipline in the ranks.

 

[wcv215]

You were talking about soldiers killing officers because they disagree with their actions. This happens in every army at some point and is not indicative of a universal indiscipline. The problem with the IJA was that relatively junior officers thought they should make policy, not indiscipline in the ranks.

Yes...which is indiscipline. That manifests in many forms, and the junior officers doing as they saw fit is the way it manifested in this case.

 

[JAG88]

WP ORANGE still existed to 1940, after which it was subsumed into the RIANBOW plans. WPO shifted away from a early Phillipines relief in the 1920s. USN staff studies and exercises made it clear a early and rapid crossing of the Pacific from the US to PI was impractical to the point of impossibility. This was the era in which Marine Major Ellis wrote his analysis of a island hoping campaign to seize intermediate bases; 'Advanced Base Operations in Micronesia'. ...And when the US organized Marine Expeditionary Brigades for seizing these advanced bases. The US started purchasing experimental amphibious transports, and testing landing craft. By 19\30 the idea of a early war expedition to PI was dead.

A bad military idea indeed... and yet, they started to reinforce the PI right before PH plus you have McArthur making the issue more than a military matter, can FDR afford to simply let the Japanese take the islands while the USN does nothing to help? To allow "an inferior race" to simply attack and defeat US troops without doing anything of substance about it?

Keep in mind this is the guy who sent 2 CVs in an idiotic PR raid against Tokyo leaving only 2 others to face the IJN at Coral Sea, with only luck preventing the loss of both CVs.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

According to at least some sources, isn't the Original Timeline Doolittle Raid supposed to have contributed to baiting the IJN to attack at Midway?:

…When authorities released news of the attack, American morale zoomed from the depths to which it plunged following Japan's many early victories. Although the brilliant strike caused relatively little physical damage, it stunned the Japanese population -- their embarrassed leaders had promised the mainland would never be attacked. The Japanese transferred four fighter groups from the front lines to defend mainland Japan. To prevent future American attacks on the homeland, Admiral Yamamoto ordered the disastrous attack on Midway Island, which became the turning point in the war in the Pacific…

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/V...merica-hits-back-the-doolittle-tokyo-raiders/

 

[Alanith]

A bad military idea indeed... and yet, they started to reinforce the PI right before PH plus you have McArthur making the issue more than a military matter, can FDR afford to simply let the Japanese take the islands while the USN does nothing to help? To allow "an inferior race" to simply attack and defeat US troops without doing anything of substance about it?

Keep in mind this is the guy who sent 2 CVs in an idiotic PR raid against Tokyo leaving only 2 others to face the IJN at Coral Sea, with only luck preventing the loss of both CVs.

It also directly lead to the Japanese sending the cream of their carrier force to be sunk at Midway shortly afterwards.

 

[LeX]

The reason why the Japanese military factions were doing basically whatever the heck they wanted after the Russo-Japanese War is, IIRC, because there was a law in the Japanese government that you couldn't form a cabinet without approval from the ministry of defense. The military basically vetoed any cabinet it didn't like, with predictable consequences amidst the other issues that Japan as a society experienced from the 1910s to the 1930s.

 

[JAG88]

It also directly lead to the Japanese sending the cream of their carrier force to be sunk at Midway shortly afterwards.

Right, because the rationale behind Doolittle raid was to cause operation MI...

And ignoring that Midway was a huge fluke and could have very well ended with the USN carriers getting sunk.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

A warship you're not prepared to risk is a useless waste of resources. The question is always, "Is what you want to do worth the risk of that ship"?

 

[gatordad699]

A war time president has to look at everything. Early 1942 looked like crap for the Allies. The US needed a moral boost. They weighed the risks at took action. Fortune sometimes does favor the bold.

Midway was a direct result of them having to expand the defensive perimeter so Doolittle couldn’t happen and their doctrine of the decisive battle.

Midway wasn’t a total fluke. The US used the tools at their disposal and came up with a plan. A fairly simple plan. The Japanese came up with the usual 647 moving parts plan. Then when the battle started Nagumo crapped himself. He should have never waffled on striking Midway again or the US carriers. Midway could wait, he was there to sink carriers. It wasn’t luck that repaired the Yorktown after Coral Sea to get it to Midway or that repaired it after being hit at Midway so the Japanese thought they were hitting an undamaged carrier.

 

[ChaosNDiscord]

But at Midway the Japanese intelligence suggested they'd have a day before encountering American carriers and their sub screens completely missed the US task forces. In addition their patrols didnt spot the carrier and the one that eventually did was late.

Nagumo did the right thing given his limited information in prepping for a second strike on midway, especially after reports that the airfield was still active.

 

[MonaroLS]

But at Midway the Japanese intelligence suggested they'd have a day before encountering American carriers and their sub screens completely missed the US task forces. In addition their patrols didnt spot the carrier and the one that eventually did was late.

Nagumo did the right thing given his limited information in prepping for a second strike on midway, especially after reports that the airfield was still active.

There is an interesting video on You Tube of the Battle of Midway from the Japanese perspective. I can’t remember who did it, but might be interesting to look it up

 

[dwkelley]

To come back to the OP a little bit, what if Hirohito and the Imperial Japanese armed forces heed Yamato's warning "I can run wild for six months … after that, I have no expectation of success"? They take the Philippines and immediately after send a peace treaty offer to Washington and Australia? Something along the lines of:
1) Japan will immediately return all captured US troops
2) Japan and the US will stay on their own side of the International Date Line
3) Japan will have free reign on the mainland (including the Malay peninsula / Singapore), and Indonesia is now "neutral zone" with Australia?
I'm not sure the Aussies would be happy, but I think the US would take it. Gives the US time to beef up Pacific defenses, while fully concentrating on Europe.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

A bad military idea indeed... and yet, they started to reinforce the PI right before PH plus you have McArthur making the issue more than a military matter, can FDR afford to simply let the Japanese take the islands while the USN does nothing to help? To allow "an inferior race" to simply attack and defeat US troops without doing anything of substance about it?

...

The reinforcement of PI in 1941 was not the Navy plan. Sec War Stimson bought off on the idea & a variety of others pushed for it. Reinforcing PI was largely outside the recently agreed RAINBOW Plans & a add on that was difficult to fight.

There was a hope to organize a relief of PI from the south. The collapse of the DEI defense in March left that impractical.

 

[AdA]

The US had reached the "this ocean is not big enough for both us" phase regarding Japan before Pearl Harbour. One way or another the US would downsize Japan and given relative potential there is not much Japan can do about it except negotiate terms, ideally without a war.

 

[Draconis]

To come back to the OP a little bit, what if Hirohito and the Imperial Japanese armed forces heed Yamato's warning "I can run wild for six months … after that, I have no expectation of success"? They take the Philippines and immediately after send a peace treaty offer to Washington and Australia? Something along the lines of:
1) Japan will immediately return all captured US troops
2) Japan and the US will stay on their own side of the International Date Line
3) Japan will have free reign on the mainland (including the Malay peninsula / Singapore), and Indonesia is now "neutral zone" with Australia?
I'm not sure the Aussies would be happy, but I think the US would take it. Gives the US time to beef up Pacific defenses, while fully concentrating on Europe.

I think the Japanese would already have finished conquering Indonesia by the time the Philippine Campaign is completed. As the key part of the Southern Resource area what with the oil and all I don't think they would agree to relinquish any control over it. But to come to a deal with the U.S. a big part of which is agreeing to leave Australia alone the Japanese might agree to stay out of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands as long as both sides don't expand military or naval facilities there. A "neutral zone" of a kind.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

According to at least some sources, isn't the Original Timeline Doolittle Raid supposed to have contributed to baiting the IJN to attack at Midway?:

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/V...merica-hits-back-the-doolittle-tokyo-raiders/

There's a huge amount missing from the linked article. The proposal originated with US observers of the Brit CLUB Runs that sent carrier launched planes to Malta. One of the early proposals was for US bombers attacking Sicilly or Italy & flying on to Malta or Egypt.