No Pearl Harbour attack: does the US declare war within 30 days?

Will the US declare war?


  • Total voters
    85
OTL the declaration of war was made by the US 1 day after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour.
What If there isn't a Pearl Harbour attack though? Does the rest(i.e. invasion of the Philippines, etc) become seen as bad as an attack on the US mainland?
(Assume the rest of the Japanese invasion plan proceeds as OTL.)
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The PI and Guam were US territory

OTL the declaration of war was made by the US 1 day after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour.
What If there isn't a Pearl Harbour attack though? Does the rest(i.e. invasion of the Philippines, etc) become seen as bad as an attack on the US mainland?
(Assume the rest of the Japanese invasion plan proceeds as OTL.)

The PI and Guam were US territory, with tens of thousands of American citizens and millions of US nationals in residence.

Best,
 
The USN had already been given the order that any Japanese military force approaching was to be considered hostile & to attack. The US, Dutch, and British military leaders had been conducting meetings on coordinating operations, with the understanding the US would be at war in a few days were either the Brits or Dutch attacked. ie: Admiral Phillps had just confered with MacArthur in Manila 6th December.

Assuming the Japanese send their military south to the British & Dutch colonies all Roosevelt has to do is declare a large Nuetral or Exclusionary zone around the PI & reinforce the earlier 'Consider Hostile' order with a "Shoot on Sight" order as had been done in the Atlantic the previous year. With this nuetral zone crossing the sea lanes through the PI/Foromosa straits and the South china Sea war with Japan is guaranteed in less than a week.
 

jahenders

Banned
I initially voted 'more than 30 days' because I didn't read the post and thought it meant no attack on US territories.

If Japan attacks PI, the US still declares war pretty quickly though there's a bit more political wrangling and less dramatic patriotism thereafter (i.e. not so many lines of men lining up to volunteer).

Without a Pearl Harbor attack, the US is able to go more fully "Germany First."

OTL the declaration of war was made by the US 1 day after Japan attacked Pearl Harbour.
What If there isn't a Pearl Harbour attack though? Does the rest(i.e. invasion of the Philippines, etc) become seen as bad as an attack on the US mainland?
(Assume the rest of the Japanese invasion plan proceeds as OTL.)
 
I initially voted 'more than 30 days' because I didn't read the post and thought it meant no attack on US territories.

If Japan attacks PI, the US still declares war pretty quickly though there's a bit more political wrangling and less dramatic patriotism thereafter (i.e. not so many lines of men lining up to volunteer).

Without a Pearl Harbor attack, the US is able to go more fully "Germany First."
Agreed on all counts (including misvoting because I didn't fully read the prompt).

US territory is US territory; the deaths of US soldiers, sailors and airmen in the Philippines and other US territories would still lead to a declaration of war as soon as Congress got a chance to vote. It wasn't something that could be seen as a one-off or accident like the Panay or the Reuben James; this was clearly a continuing and premeditated attack. The US effectively was at war the moment the first bombs dropped.
 
It may not be as quick as OTL, but still likely to be within the 30 day option.
I wonder how different if the Philippines and other US territory not attacked - only BE & DEI?
 

jahenders

Banned
True, US territory is US territory, but I think most Americans considered PI less so than HI. Many likely considered PI to be an armed fortress in a foreign land, while HI was a pseudo-state with lots of US civilians there.

Agreed on all counts (including misvoting because I didn't fully read the prompt).

US territory is US territory; the deaths of US soldiers, sailors and airmen in the Philippines and other US territories would still lead to a declaration of war as soon as Congress got a chance to vote. It wasn't something that could be seen as a one-off or accident like the Panay or the Reuben James; this was clearly a continuing and premeditated attack. The US effectively was at war the moment the first bombs dropped.
 
The United States Navy had already been given the order that any Japanese military force approaching was to be considered hostile and to attack. The US, Dutch, and British military leaders had been conducting meetings on coordinating operations, with the understanding the US would be at war in a few days were either the Brits or Dutch attacked. i.e. Admiral Phillps had just confered with MacArthur in Manila 6th December.

Assuming the Japanese send their military south to the British and Dutch colonies all Roosevelt has to do is declare a large Nuetral or Exclusionary zone around the PI and reinforce the earlier 'Consider Hostile' order with a "Shoot on Sight" order as had been done in the Atlantic the previous year. With this nuetral zone crossing the sea lanes through the PI/Foromosa straits and the South china Sea war with Japan is guaranteed in less than a week.
What he said. The US was the main proponent of the embargoes against Japan over their actions in China, they're certainly not going to be happy about them trying to get around it by expanding their war into the wider region, especially not against white Western powers. Considering how tense things already were a neutral/exclusionary zone and actions just short of war seem more than likely at which point it's practically inevitable that shooting is going to start over something, however small, and things spin out from there in quick order.
 
jahenders said:
I initially voted 'more than 30 days' because I didn't read the post and thought it meant no attack on US territories.
I did, too.
jahenders said:
If Japan attacks PI, the US still declares war pretty quickly
Maybe not. Wilmott makes the argument (& I agree) the U.S. might not have declared at all, had only P.I. been invaded. It wasn't considered U.S. territory in the same way as Hawaii.
jahenders said:
Without a Pearl Harbor attack, the US is able to go more fully "Germany First."
Without the U.S. at war with Japan, does Hitler even declare at all? I really doubt it. So we have to wait for an incident that will get Hitler, or Congress, off the dime...
 

jahenders

Banned
No, I don't think Germany will declare unless we're already at war with Japan.

That being said, within 3-6 months SOMETHING will likely happen that convinces congress to declare war on Germany. They'll almost certainly include Italy and Japan in that same declaration (the parallel of what they did IOTL). But, the fact that Japan didn't attack us, will make it easier for FDR to pursue a more aggressively "Germany first" strategy.

Without the U.S. at war with Japan, does Hitler even declare at all? I really doubt it. So we have to wait for an incident that will get Hitler, or Congress, off the dime...
 
If Japan doesn't attack any US forces or territories I think it takes over a month, FDR could ship supplies to the British and Dutch and purposely have US ships in the way and as soon as a Japanese ship gets to close they can start shooting. He could then go to congress and the American people and ask for war against Japan and most likely get it without too much political hassle.
 
If on December 7, 1941 the Japanese just attacked the Phillippines and Guam, on December 8, 1941 Roosevelt makes the same Day of Infamy speech and Congress still declares war by a vote of 434 to 1. US territory has been attacked and US citizens have been killed.
 
If on December 7, 1941 the Japanese just attacked the Phillippines and Guam, on December 8, 1941 Roosevelt makes the same Day of Infamy speech and Congress still declares war by a vote of 434 to 1. US territory has been attacked and US citizens have been killed.

I don't understand see why 18 of you can't see this.
 

jahenders

Banned
Because we saw the title (which says nothing about PI) and the poll question and answered the poll before reading the associated post (which does mention PI, though not pronouncedly. Bad on us for being quick to respond, but greater clarity would have reduced the problem.

I don't understand see why 18 of you can't see this.
 
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