No Pearl Harbour: A Sane Imperial Japan Military

It's really less about "sane" & more about "better educated". They have to learn the difference between "tactical victory" & "strategic victory", for a start.:rolleyes: They have to learn about the impact of geographic constraints.:rolleyes:

Japan already know their enemy strength and weakness. Don't forget Japan and USA had a good relation in 1910-1920s. Yamamoto, Nagumo, Yamaguchi, and Kuribayashi once studied in USA.

Japan also know their own strength and weakness. The Pearl Harbour its self is an evident that Japan knew their Navy only have a real chance knocking US Pacific Fleet if they caught them at port with a sneak attack. Invasion of South East Asia also had a strict timetable, because Japan need troops and transport ship from point A to strike point B. If battle in point A went sour, Japanese attack against point B will also went nowhere.

But despite of that, they belief that they able to pull it off. They have this insane optimism that USA will not commit to a war in Pacific and willing to bargain a quick peace deal (being a nation of pragmatist shopkeeper and moviemaker:rolleyes:).

UK already fighting tooth and nails with Nazi Germany. Vichy France not in a position to fight a Axis nation. Netherlands occupied by the German, making DEI stand without support. Japan can win against these countries. But USA... not a chance.

Entire Pacific War are can be prevented easily...if Imperial Japan leaders not, you guess it, crazy.
 
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The oil embargo was, contrary to what's been said, an existential threat: without oil, Japan's economy comes to a halt. (As conceived by FDR, it was to have been on military supplies, like avgas. It got broadened by State--& it bit them.:rolleyes:)

Please correct me if i'm wrong.

Not most of Japan energy at that time came from coal (and firewood for home use)?

They needs of oil mainly for their military machines. Modern equivalent will be Iran attacking the Gulf States, or North Korea attacking South Korea because they can't endure the economic sanction that constrained their military.
 
mutiafarida3 said:
Japan already know their enemy strength and weakness.
Self-evidently, Japan did not understand what she was getting into, or there would never have been a war.:rolleyes:

The Japanese thought "decisive battle" could lead to a negotiated peace. Japan had no experience fighting a blue-water war against a country with a blue-water navy & a government that wasn't on the verge of collapse.:rolleyes: IJA had no idea what "strategic" really looked like (& I'm unconvinced IJN did, either).:rolleyes:
mutiafarida3 said:
The Pearl Harbour its self is an evident that Japan knew their Navy only have a real chance knocking US Pacific Fleet
You've just proven my point: a tactical success at Hawai'i is conflated with a grand strategic success. It was a grand strategic insanity.:eek: Yet Japan went ahead anyhow.:rolleyes:
mutiafarida3 said:
despite of that, they belief that they able to pull it off
Thereby proving they have no real grasp of the issues at hand.:rolleyes:
mutiafarida3 said:
(being a nation of pragmatist shopkeeper and moviemaker:rolleyes:).
Evidently, they've overlooked the ACW...:rolleyes: And that was in their own country. Did Japan really think the U.S. was going to be less willing to inflict (or absorb) casualties when an external enemy attacked?:confused:
mutiafarida3 said:
Japan can win against these countries.
So long as Britain is fighting Germany, too, no. Alone against Britain, Japan has no chance. And frankly, I'm not entirely convinced Britain couldn't have held, with some U.S. economic aid (but no active involvement), & still beaten Japan.
mutiafarida3 said:
if Imperial Japan leaders not, you guess it, crazy.
And, as noted, not sane: just not stupid. The attacks were not de facto insane, given what Japan believed to be true. It's just that what Japan believed to be true was so completely divorced from reality...:rolleyes:
mutiafarida3 said:
Please correct me if i'm wrong.

Not most of Japan energy at that time came from coal (and firewood for home use)?

They needs of oil mainly for their military machines. Modern equivalent will be Iran attacking the Gulf States, or North Korea attacking South Korea because they can't endure the economic sanction that constrained their military.

You might be right, there.:eek: I'm so used to thinking Japan relies entirely on oil. However, the point stands: an embargo on avgas alone would not have had the same impact.
 
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