It's really less about "sane" & more about "better educated". They have to learn the difference between "tactical victory" & "strategic victory", for a start.They have to learn about the impact of geographic constraints.
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Japan already know their enemy strength and weakness. Don't forget Japan and USA had a good relation in 1910-1920s. Yamamoto, Nagumo, Yamaguchi, and Kuribayashi once studied in USA.
Japan also know their own strength and weakness. The Pearl Harbour its self is an evident that Japan knew their Navy only have a real chance knocking US Pacific Fleet if they caught them at port with a sneak attack. Invasion of South East Asia also had a strict timetable, because Japan need troops and transport ship from point A to strike point B. If battle in point A went sour, Japanese attack against point B will also went nowhere.
But despite of that, they belief that they able to pull it off. They have this insane optimism that USA will not commit to a war in Pacific and willing to bargain a quick peace deal (being a nation of pragmatist shopkeeper and moviemaker
UK already fighting tooth and nails with Nazi Germany. Vichy France not in a position to fight a Axis nation. Netherlands occupied by the German, making DEI stand without support. Japan can win against these countries. But USA... not a chance.
Entire Pacific War are can be prevented easily...if Imperial Japan leaders not, you guess it, crazy.
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