No Pearl Harbor

Here's an idea: I've seen variations on the Pearl Harbor attack, on timing and damage, but what if there had never been an attack at all? It's the Day of Infamy that finally sparked the US into actively and effectively joining into WW2, but what if that hadn't happened?
I leave it up to speculation whether the Japanese would have gone after English or Russian outposts, that's a whole subject in itself.
The Isolationist movement was still very strong in the US, even for all our aid to England; without such an active act of aggression how long would we have remained "officially neutral". How long would Great Britain have held on without our full commitment? What reason, if any, would have been given should the US finally join the active war, assuming we would at all?
 

Hoist40

Banned
The British could hold out as long as they got Lend Lease.

One big problem for the Japanese was the cutting off of oil and other materials by the American/British/Dutch that would crash the Japanese economy in around a year or two.

The second was the US buildup of the Philippines, soon after cutting off oil the US made the Philippines a high priority and by the middle of 1942 they were expecting to have several hundred each of heavy, medium, light bombers and two or three hundred fighters plus radar and more extensive bases and ground support. The US was already in late 1941 putting into action a plan to store high octane aviation fuel, bombs and ammo at several British/Australian bases including Singapore so that the B-17’s could operate out of them

So the longer the Japanese wait the less resources they have and the stronger the Philippines, which sits along their southern trade route, will be. So the Japanese can wait and hope that sanctions will end, they can strike north in the Soviet Union but their Siberian resources were not well developed or strike south against the British and Dutch but which puts their ships in range of a greatly strengthened Philippines.

And both the British and Dutch were strengthening their positions as well during this time.
 
The British could hold out as long as they got Lend Lease.

One big problem for the Japanese was the cutting off of oil and other materials by the American/British/Dutch that would crash the Japanese economy in around a year or two.

The second was the US buildup of the Philippines, soon after cutting off oil the US made the Philippines a high priority and by the middle of 1942 they were expecting to have several hundred each of heavy, medium, light bombers and two or three hundred fighters plus radar and more extensive bases and ground support. The US was already in late 1941 putting into action a plan to store high octane aviation fuel, bombs and ammo at several British/Australian bases including Singapore so that the B-17’s could operate out of them

So the longer the Japanese wait the less resources they have and the stronger the Philippines, which sits along their southern trade route, will be. So the Japanese can wait and hope that sanctions will end, they can strike north in the Soviet Union but their Siberian resources were not well developed or strike south against the British and Dutch but which puts their ships in range of a greatly strengthened Philippines.

And both the British and Dutch were strengthening their positions as well during this time.

But are the British and Dutch and Americans really going to be putting more forces in these peaceful areas with the war in Europe growing ever more perilous?
 
But are the British and Dutch and Americans really going to be putting more forces in these peaceful areas with the war in Europe growing ever more perilous?

Yes. They were OTL. And the Americans amd Dutch don't have anywhere better to base them, what with not actually being involved in Europe on the one hand and having been overrun there on the other.
 

Hoist40

Banned
But are the British and Dutch and Americans really going to be putting more forces in these peaceful areas with the war in Europe growing ever more perilous?

If the Japanese don’t invade French Vietnam in Sept 1940 and then get involved in the French/Thailand war then maybe the US would not cut off trade and not change policy and start reinforcing the Philippines and other US Pacific territory.

The US did not like the Japanese invasion of China, and having the Japanese move into Indo China pushed Roosevelt into action.
 
Here's an idea: I've seen variations on the Pearl Harbor attack, on timing and damage, but what if there had never been an attack at all? It's the Day of Infamy that finally sparked the US into actively and effectively joining into WW2, but what if that hadn't happened?

Clarify: do you mean "What if Japan did not attack the United States?"

Because Japan also attacked the Philippines, Guam, and Wake Island.

I leave it up to speculation whether the Japanese would have gone after English or Russian outposts, that's a whole subject in itself.

Neither "England" nor "Russia" had any outposts anywhere. Great Britain and the Soviet Union had possessions in the Far East which Japan might have attacked.

The Isolationist movement was still very strong in the US, even for all our aid to England; without such an active act of aggression how long would we have remained "officially neutral". How long would Great Britain have held on without our full commitment? What reason, if any, would have been given should the US finally join the active war, assuming we would at all?

I guess the question you are trying to ask is: What if Japan had attacked British and Dutch colonies in SE Asia without attacking any U.S. possessions? That is really the only viable alternate strategy for Japan.

Japan was 'forced' (in their minds) to war because the U.S. (and Britain and the Netherlands) would not sell them oil unless Japan ceased its invasion of China. The British and Dutch colonies had the oil they wanted. (The Soviet Far East did not, BTW.)

They attacked the U.S. because they were sure that the U.S. would come to the aid of the British and Dutch, and the Philippines would be a huge hostile base right in their face: better to take it first.

Most observers think this assumption was mistaken; the U.S. would not declare war without being attacked, or at least very seriously threatened.

But the U.S. would continue supplying aid to the Allies, almost certainly on an increased scale. Quite possibly the U.S. would station forces in Australia, officially or unofficially, as a tripwire. The U.S. would reinforce the Philippines, and provide all possible non-combat support to the Allies. (For instance, by sending ships and planes into Japanese areas to locate their forces, and report the findings to the Allies.)

The U.S. would also continue its aggressive support of the Allies in the Atlantic, and there would be further clashes with the Axis.

This would, IMHO, lead to a U.S. declaration of war in 1942 - maybe as early as April, but perhaps as late as September.

Do not overestimate the strength of isolationism in the U.S. By 1941, public opinion had broken down about to this: 20% isolationist, 20% interventionist, 20% no opinion, and 40% support the Allies even if it leads to war.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
But are the British and Dutch and Americans really going to be putting more forces in these peaceful areas with the war in Europe growing ever more perilous?

Americans yes. Probably we see the British draw down forces to be replace by the US. If the PI are strong enough, the Singapore becomes very hard to attack.
 
Once the US finishes expanding forces in the Phillipines to the intended level have pity for the Japanese forces ultimately ordered to attack.
 
I think we'd have been in the war by late 1942 at any rate. And if the Japanese take DEI and can bring oil out of it then maybe they try to overcome the embargo at the negotiating table.
 
You need to reduce the perception of inseparability of the U.S. & Britain, brought on by Lend-Lease.

You have to have IJN & IJA come to a deal about the budget so IJN doesn't get a vanishingly small share, which had (at the very least) as much to do with IJN's war plans as the claim for inseparability.:rolleyes:

You need to have FDR's desire for the oil embargo be only on avgas & such be honored instead of ignored.

You need to have Japan avoid another Panay incident over the gunboats & DDs & such the U.S. is going to station in Asia in increasing numbers, as the U.S. hopes Japan will do something stupid so the U.S. (in aid of China) can slap on a blockade without it being an act of war...:eek::rolleyes:

You need to have U-boats avoid many more Greer Incidents...tho so far, Congress didn't seem to disturbed (& Hitler was positively serene about USN DDs shooting at U-boats,:eek::confused: which is probably the strangest reaction I've heard of from him:p).

You need to have U.S. public option stay quite strong against actually getting involved in a war in Europe or Asia.

Do you begin to get the sense ASBs need to be in flight to achieve this?
 
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