No Pearl Harbor, No War in the Pacific?

[eltf177]

I'm not sure if this has ever been brought up, if it has I apologize.

What if, instead of attacking Pearl Harbor, the Japanese figure out that no matter how badly Roosevelt wants to get involved he can't without Congress? U-Boat attacks on US ships bring protests but no action. The US does embargo oil and scrap iron to Japan to try and force them out of China.

What if the military decides to take the NEI and various UK possessions but make no attacks on US territories (the Philippines, Guam, Midway, Wake, etc.).

Ignoring the huge US buildup in the Philippines is dangerous but if Roosevelt is hamstrung by Congress it might work.

Obviously this goes against the Japanese military mindset but, is there a chance Japan can get the oil, rubber and other items she needs without provoking a war with the US?

 

[Hannibal.Caesar]

I'm not sure if this has ever been brought up, if it has I apologize.

What if, instead of attacking Pearl Harbor, the Japanese figure out that no matter how badly Roosevelt wants to get involved he can't without Congress? U-Boat attacks on US ships bring protests but no action. The US does embargo oil and scrap iron to Japan to try and force them out of China.

What if the military decides to take the NEI and various UK possessions but make no attacks on US territories (the Philippines, Guam, Midway, Wake, etc.).

Ignoring the huge US buildup in the Philippines is dangerous but if Roosevelt is hamstrung by Congress it might work.

Obviously this goes against the Japanese military mindset but, is there a chance Japan can get the oil, rubber and other items she needs without provoking a war with the US?

Not a chance. IIRC the US was Japan's number one trading partner when it came to oil and mechanical objects. With the US not trading with Japan, it has no other option than to strike out in order to get what it needs. You'll have to get rid of the US embargo to give the Japanese a chance in my opinion.

 

[stevep]

I'm not sure if this has ever been brought up, if it has I apologize.

What if, instead of attacking Pearl Harbor, the Japanese figure out that no matter how badly Roosevelt wants to get involved he can't without Congress? U-Boat attacks on US ships bring protests but no action. The US does embargo oil and scrap iron to Japan to try and force them out of China.

What if the military decides to take the NEI and various UK possessions but make no attacks on US territories (the Philippines, Guam, Midway, Wake, etc.).

Ignoring the huge US buildup in the Philippines is dangerous but if Roosevelt is hamstrung by Congress it might work.

Obviously this goes against the Japanese military mindset but, is there a chance Japan can get the oil, rubber and other items she needs without provoking a war with the US?

eltf177

Its been brought up a fair bit but a subject of much controversy. Depends on how much you think Roosevelt would be able to get into the war without a Japanese attack. I personally think it would be the best move for the Japanese as even if he does get a declaration of war the US is far less likely to pursue it as far and as vigorously as after being attacked. If they don't, then while steel supplies might be a problem the Japanese can get the oil and rubber they need from the occupied colonies.

Anyway, welcome to the board. Hope you enjoy the debate.

Steve

 

[Markus]

Not attacking the USA and hopeing Congress does not declare war(and FDR respects that decision) is risky, doing it is defeat by default, so the former option is the better one.

 

[Faeelin]

If they don't, then while steel supplies might be a problem the Japanese can get the oil and rubber they need from the occupied colonies.

Can they?

We've guessed about it, but has anyone sat down and done the number? I have a hunch that the DEI cannot compromise for the lack of American oil and American tankers.
But then, I would also argue that ignoring the Philippines, a dagger at the heart of the Japanese Empire, is ASB given the High Command at the time.

 

[eltf177]

Can they?

We've guessed about it, but has anyone sat down and done the number? I have a hunch that the DEI cannot compromise for the lack of American oil and American tankers.
But then, I would also argue that ignoring the Philippines, a dagger at the heart of the Japanese Empire, is ASB given the High Command at the time.

One thing I do remember reading somewhere is that the Dutch managed to do some sabotage of the oil wells before resistance ended. And Japan's resources were so stretched it took months to get the wells back on line.

 

[CalBear]

Can they?

We've guessed about it, but has anyone sat down and done the number? I have a hunch that the DEI cannot compromise for the lack of American oil and American tankers.
But then, I would also argue that ignoring the Philippines, a dagger at the heart of the Japanese Empire, is ASB given the High Command at the time.

The Japanese, as you note, couldn't afford to leave the U.S. alone. The bases on Luzon were a dagger at the throat of the Japanese supply lines between the "Southern Resource Area" and Japan. Wake, along with Guam, were positioned to threaten the Japanese positions in their League of Nation Mandate islands (which the Japanese had no intention of EVER giving up), and could provide bases for attacks on the Home Islands. Lastly, and probably most importantly, Japan had seen the U.S. as a lethal threat for at least four decades; there is no way they can let the U.S. complete her defense buildup without being in what they felt would be a strong defensive position.

 

[Weaver]

Something has always puzzled me about the Japanese need for Dutch East Indies oil. As I understand it Japan got hardly any oil at all to the Home Islands during the war due to mainly the US submarine blockade. So to go to war just for the oil was a flawed concept.

That's hindsight of course, but did Japan really need to attack the US/Europeans? Couldn't she have concentrated on China, taking care to pick up on any opportunities arising due to the Russo-German war in due course?

 

[CalBear]

Something has always puzzled me about the Japanese need for Dutch East Indies oil. As I understand it Japan got hardly any oil at all to the Home Islands during the war due to mainly the US submarine blockade. So to go to war just for the oil was a flawed concept.

That's hindsight of course, but did Japan really need to attack the US/Europeans? Couldn't she have concentrated on China, taking care to pick up on any opportunities arising due to the Russo-German war in due course?

Japan did get oil, not as much as they hoped, but they still got a significant amount. As an example in the 2nd quarter of 1943, the peak period, Japan received roughly 740,000 tons of oil from the DEI. In mid-1942, Japan was getting 29,000 barrels a day from the DEI. It wasn't until early 1944 that thing went bad for the Japanese, & even then the were able to keep the remains of their fleet at sea by basing much of it in the DEI area.

The Japanese also, strange as it sounds, fully expected the U.S to end the war within a year to 18 months. They even had a half thought out plan were they would pay an indemnity to the families of those killed or dispossessed by the war.

 

[stevep]

Can they?

We've guessed about it, but has anyone sat down and done the number? I have a hunch that the DEI cannot compromise for the lack of American oil and American tankers.

As Calbear says they could have done it, provided they had risked the US declaring war.

But then, I would also argue that ignoring the Philippines, a dagger at the heart of the Japanese Empire, is ASB given the High Command at the time.

I do agree that its extremely unlikely that the Japanese High Command would take this risk. Think that's a serious failure for them as it costs them the only chance of winning the war.#

Steve

 

[stevep]

Not attacking the USA and hopeing Congress does not declare war(and FDR respects that decision) is risky, doing it is defeat by default, so the former option is the better one.

Markus

I would think most people would argue that attacking the US was defeat by default. [If I'm reading you correctly your arguing for the historical attack being better than not attacking].

Even if the US does declare war the Japanese position is better and under those circumstances a negotiated peace may be possible if they get lucky.

Steve

 

[eltf177]

Markus

I would think most people would argue that attacking the US was defeat by default. [If I'm reading you correctly your arguing for the historical attack being better than not attacking].

Even if the US does declare war the Japanese position is better and under those circumstances a negotiated peace may be possible if they get lucky.

Steve

This is my thinking as well. Yamamoto knew full well Japan couldn't defeat the US. By not provoking the US perhaps all eyes remain focused on Hitler and not the Pacific (and Roosevelt's main effort is to try and get into the war to defeat Germany). And by letting the US make the first move it puts Japan in a stronger position to try and negotiate (Pearl Harbor made any chance of that imposible in OTL).

Agreed, the lack of steel is going to be a serious problem. OTTH China has a great deal of resources although exploiting them is going to be difficult at best. And by not getting the US involved more troops can be left in China (although I can't see them being able to defeat the Dragon). Also, what about Korea? I know most of the Japanese rice crop came from there but what about other resources and the ability to exploit them?

 

[stevep]

This is my thinking as well. Yamamoto knew full well Japan couldn't defeat the US. By not provoking the US perhaps all eyes remain focused on Hitler and not the Pacific (and Roosevelt's main effort is to try and get into the war to defeat Germany). And by letting the US make the first move it puts Japan in a stronger position to try and negotiate (Pearl Harbor made any chance of that imposible in OTL).

Agreed, the lack of steel is going to be a serious problem. OTTH China has a great deal of resources although exploiting them is going to be difficult at best. And by not getting the US involved more troops can be left in China (although I can't see them being able to defeat the Dragon). Also, what about Korea? I know most of the Japanese rice crop came from there but what about other resources and the ability to exploit them?

eltf177

I think most of the Japanese rice crop was home produced but there was some imported from Korea and the rest of the empire. The steel wasn't too great a problem in on way that Japan managed to fight for nearly 4 years without imports from the US.

As well as the fact the US will be more divided on the war the other factor I can see, if Roosevelt manages to get a dow on Japan is that their position could be dramatically improved militarily. The Philippines is a serious problem but its deep inside Japanese controlled territory and if the Japanese knock out the a/c there, which should be possible, then the US are going to have great difficultly getting supplies and reinforcements through to it. Worse still they might be forced by political pressure to try. If the US Pacific fleet, including BBs heads west there's a damn good chance it will be heavily defeated. This would be a blow to moral that might prompt a decision on continuing the war. Furthermore any ships lost here would be in deep water, i.e. much heavier casualties and the ships are gone for good.

If the US doesn't bite on a negotiated peace then the Japanese will go down but they definitely will if they attack the US first.

Steve

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I was under the impression that Japan was already at war in the Pacific with China. Silly me.

 

[Faeelin]

The Philippines is a serious problem but its deep inside Japanese controlled territory and if the Japanese knock out the a/c there, which should be possible, then the US are going to have great difficultly getting supplies and reinforcements through to it. Worse still they might be forced by political pressure to try.

What makes you so sure it's possible? The US was in the middle of an ungodly military buildup that made the Japanese High Command afraid.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Japan started the war with a total of 12 carriers, six fleet carriers, two medium carriers comparable to a single fleet carrier and 4 small ones which might charitably have been equal to a single fleet carrier. In addition to 10 battleships, including older ones of uncertain staying power, they had the two superbattleships Yamato and Musashi under construction.

When the US announced the intent to expand to the US Navy to the limits under the 5:5:3 treaty this meant 16 battleships and 12 fleet carriers would be entering service within a few years. Once that happens, along with related expansions of the US Army and Air Corps Japan can't hope to win even in the short term.

Ian's posted his figures and charts showing the rate at which US production so overwhelmingly outclassed Japan, to the point that if the US had suffered a total defeat at Midway(all US carriers sunk, no Japanese carriers sunk) then the US would still have been able to offer resistance within a few months and launch an overpowering offensive in late 1943.

Japan, in contrast, couldn't even recover from that one defeat.

 

[merlin]

In the few days prior to the PH attack, British & Dutch officers were trying to get agreement from the Americans in the Phillipines, on what support the US would give in the event of an attack on the Kra Istmus. There were 'Warplans' agreed but the US officers regarded them as purely 'plans' to be actioned in the event of 'war'!
The British in Singapore wanted a B-17 patrol of to look out for the Japanese troop convoy on its way to the Kra, but the Americans refused - not wanting to seem to be 'provocative.

Hence, the question is:- in the event that the Japanese didn't attack the US, but concentrated on the British and Dutch. At what point would the US intevene? Would US forces in the PI attack the Japanese military in support of the 'old world colonial powers'. Would such attacks have to wait for some justification of Japanese attacks on US Forces - as per USS Panay.

The Americans rose as one, after PH, but would they be so keen if just Britain and the Dutch were affected!? That is Roosevelt might want to assist, but would Congress agree? And, when at last they did agree months later - how far in their conquests would Japan have got? The Phillipines would've been almost surrounded - no fall back to Java & Borneo.

Yes, Japan realised that the US was the main threat to its supremacy in the Pacific - but perhaps that blinded her, to what could be achieved until the threat was reality.

 

[stevep]

What makes you so sure it's possible? The US was in the middle of an ungodly military buildup that made the Japanese High Command afraid.

Faeelin

In the middle of but how far was it from completion? If Japan didn't attack the US then the US has 3 options:
a) Declare war immediately. This has the problems that the Philippines are highly exposed to Japanese interdiction and also public opinion in the US.
b) Declare war when the Philippines and the US forces elsewhere in the Pacific have been considerably strengthened. More secure militarily but if more than a couple of months then the Japanese might have forced Britain and the Free Dutch, despairing of the position without US aid. If so Japan can probably concentrate just about everything on the US. The latter will still win in a long war but it will be costly and motivation for war could be difficult, especially if there are early and costly set-backs.
c) Stay neutral.

Given that historically the allies underestimated the Japanese and that without the Pearl Harbour attack the USN would probably still be predominantly BB centred I think an early defeat for the US could be fairly likely, especially since this was the war the IJN had spent decades planning. In that case does the US stiffen its resolve or, in a war it had started/intruded in with mixed support for it, come to some terms? Impossible to say for sure I think.

Steve

 

[stevep]

I was under the impression that Japan was already at war in the Pacific with China. Silly me.

Grimm

Just to clarify. I think your saying that the fact the Japanese attack on China since 37 shows that a Japanese attack on the British/Dutch wouldn't necessarily result in a US DOW. However just to make clear.

Steve

 

[eltf177]

Some very interesting comments here. As I said, Japan viewed the US as a mortal enemy so this scenario is extremely unlikely but, if they'd tried to avoid an overt attack, what would happen next?

I think the big 'what if' is, does War Plan Orange go into effect? Without a declaration of war the US is rather badly limited in options. Does any more of the fleet get based in the Philippines to intimidate Japan? How much naval and air power can the UK spare for the Pacific? Same for the Dutch? And what will Stalin do (probably the same as OTL, especially if Scorge can convince him Japan won't attack)?