No outside involvement in the Gulf War. Can the Middle Eastern nations defeat Iraq on their own?

So, let's say the United States adopts a isolationist attitude in regards to the Middle East, as a result of Vietnam War syndrome, and doesn't form a coalition to liberate Kuwait from Iraq. Without American leadership, no Western country seriously considers kicking Iraq out of Kuwait with military force.

A coalition of Middle Eastern nations begins to take shape. (Syria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Lebanon). Can this coalition defeat Iraq by itself without outside military intervention?

Before anyone tells me, I know this idea is ASB, but I was just curious.
 
So, let's say the United States adopts a isolationist attitude in regards to the Middle East, as a result of Vietnam War syndrome, and doesn't form a coalition to liberate Kuwait from Iraq. Without American leadership, no Western country seriously considers kicking Iraq out of Kuwait with military force.

A coalition of Middle Eastern nations begins to take shape. (Syria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Lebanon). Can this coalition defeat Iraq by itself without outside military intervention?

Before anyone tells me, I know this idea is ASB, but I was just curious.
Nope.
It would be messy, but in 1990 the Saudi military is, well... nonexistent as an actual fighting force. The Iraqis can more or less drive straight to Riyadh. Ditto for the other Gulf States. The Gulf armies spent lots of money in Western high-tech equipment but are not yet trained to use it. The UAE are considered a very respectable military power now, but it was not remotely the case then.
Jordan and Syria have functioning armies, and Syria could at least challenge the still exhausted and logistically strained Iraqis, but I think Saddam still overpowers them. Jordan treaded very cautiously IOTL; they weren't particularly ready to oppose Saddam, and would even less reason to here.
Lebanon is just emerged from an absolutely devastating civil war. It can do very little.
Of course, both Iran and Israel would literally freak out, and quickly. Israel cannot ally with Arab countries openly, but Iraqi victory is a nightmare scenario for them. Likewise, Iran may not be very willing to resume open war with Iraq so soon after the armistice, since they'd had horrific losses in the previous war... but they may easily feel compelled to do so, particularly to support Syria, which, while not yet the firm ally it would become later, is already a partner.
Assuming non-Arab countries di not intervene directly, the game changer would be what Egypt (freshly re-admitted into the Arab League) does. Egypt has the only other military force of real note in the region that could potentially stand up to the Iraqis.
 
Why was Saudi Arabia so weak?

Relatively small population. I recall a document from circa 1985 showing all of a half dozen brigades for the modern mechanized army. There were some other units on the chart that seemed to be a bunch of rural types with small arms and light trucks or horses. Organizational structure of the military. Attitude on the part of the citizens.

There was & I believe still is a small elite group, a standing force with the mission of the security of the regime. Well armed and trained. For general defense there was the National Guard, a combination of standing and reservist personnel. training and equipment varied by unit & and ranged from good to bad.

All key or worthy officer positions went to the princes of the royal family, or the men married into of connected to the royals. One problem there should be fairly obvious. Another problem explained to me back in the early 1980s, was that they all had the mentality of the small entrepenure, every individual the owner/boss of his own little enterprise. Technical work was for slaves, or in modern times contract labor from Pakistan or somewhere. While brave enough, and motivated, or aggresive the Saudi Army officer and most other ranks looked down on technical skill, and had a difficult time adjusting to western leader/subordinate methods or team functioning. If that is accurate it matches some remarks made by my peers in the Marine Corps post Desert Shield about training with the Saudi National Guard, or the Kuwatis for that matter.
 
In the same way modern day Israel and Saudi Arabia have created what some would call an "unholy alliance" to counter Iran, might this lead to saudis, Iran or Israel creating an unholy alliance to contain Iraq? They all would have beef with Iraq seeing as Iraq likely has aims on the saudis oil in the Persian gulf, Iran considered Iraq it's main rival after just fighting a war with them a few years prior and israel has a interest in preventing the rise of a dangerous competitor like Saddam's Iraq which if left unchallenged could become the leader of the Arab world.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
In the air atleast Saudis have 60 F15s and 60 F5E plus 20 tornado ADV
Would these not destroy iraqi airforce leaving their army without any cover ?
 
If they were flown by the USAF then yes. The ability of the Saudi AF to use those to advantage in some sort of fast death blow operation is questionable. Even over the long haul the ability to plan and execute effective operations is problematic.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
If they were flown by the USAF then yes. The ability of the Saudi AF to use those to advantage in some sort of fast death blow operation is questionable. Even over the long haul the ability to plan and execute effective operations is problematic.
You mean the ability of Saudi airforce to use f15?
 
Nope.
It would be messy, but in 1990 the Saudi military is, well... nonexistent as an actual fighting force.

The Saudi Air Force performes well in 1991 though. The Saudi Land Forces, which are divided into two parts (Army and National Guard), were much worse.
 
You mean the ability of Saudi airforce to use f15?

No, it is the ability of the Saudi to use airforce to effective deploy airpower and achieve war/political goals.

Think less about hardware. Doctrine, C4I and organization are much more difficult to achieve proficiency.
 
No, it is the ability of the Saudi to use airforce to effective deploy airpower and achieve war/political goals.

Think less about hardware. Doctrine, C4I and organization are much more difficult to achieve proficiency.

The Saudi Air Force performes well in 1991 though. ...

The USAF was running the Desert Storm Air Show. Decisions, Planning, and the execution or C4I were to their standards.
 
I recall stories about US fighters being pulled off intercepts for political reasons so Saudi's could be vectored in. The results were... less then encouraging.
 
In the air atleast Saudis have 60 F15s and 60 F5E plus 20 tornado ADV
Would these not destroy iraqi airforce leaving their army without any cover ?
They also had the strike version of the Tornado as well. I seem to recall the F5's had Maverick missiles and there was probably lots of other fancy kit as well.

On paper they should be able to do a lot of damage to the Iraqis.. Others have commented about likely possible outcomes in this fictional time line.
 
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No, it is the ability of the Saudi to use airforce to effective deploy airpower and achieve war/political goals.

Think less about hardware. Doctrine, C4I and organization are much more difficult to achieve proficiency.

Any thoughts about the ability of the Saudis to hire foreign experts to provide some of the needed skills if given a reasonable warning time (say six months ?) and foreign nations that were willing to allow their citizens to provide the needed expertise to the Saudis ?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Any thoughts about the ability of the Saudis to hire foreign experts to provide some of the needed skills if given a reasonable warning time (say six months ?) and foreign nations that were willing to allow their citizens to provide the needed expertise to the Saudis ?
The British veterans of the dhofar campaign may get more projects.
I doubt anyone other than Israelis or Americans would have flown the F15s though
 
In the same way modern day Israel and Saudi Arabia have created what some would call an "unholy alliance" to counter Iran, might this lead to saudis, Iran or Israel creating an unholy alliance to contain Iraq? They all would have beef with Iraq seeing as Iraq likely has aims on the saudis oil in the Persian gulf, Iran considered Iraq it's main rival after just fighting a war with them a few years prior and israel has a interest in preventing the rise of a dangerous competitor like Saddam's Iraq which if left unchallenged could become the leader of the Arab world.


Agreed, only the combined forces of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel and maybe Turkey would be able to defeat IraqZ
 
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