No Ortigara, earlier 11th battle of the Isonzo.

[ghappy1000]

What if, the Italians, instead of launching the Battle for Ortigara, instead launched an earlier eleventh battle of the Isonzo? In my opinion, this would have impacted the Isonzo front strategically. When the battle of Ortigara was over, the Italians had high casualties for little gain. They would be better launching an eleventh battle of the Isonzo 1 to 2 months earlier. In this case, they could have taken Trieste and forced the Austrians to retreat to Slovenia [assuming the actions of ttl's 11th battle are better coordinated]. The Austrians, as stated, launched Caporetto because they couldn't face a 12th battle of the Isonzo anymore[Emperor Charles stated that, if the results of the otl eleventh battle of the Isonzo was not good and they would fare worse in an Italian launched twelth. So, this would have meant, without Caporetto being launched or failing, which is possible without German aid, they would probably have to surrender months earlier than otl].
In this scenario, otl 11th battle of the Isonzo would have been ttl's 12th and the Italians would have taken Trieste and entered Slovenia, not only reducing the number of Austrian troops available to defend the frontline but also increasing it. However, I don't think it would force the Italian front to collapse, let alone forcing the Austrians to surrender. If any, they could still launched an atl Caporetto style offensive through the Tyrol while the Italians prepare to take Zagreb and the rest of Slovenia. The consequences might actually be worse for the Italians in this scenario since they lose at least two armies, probably three, and the supply situation for the Austrians would be better, meaning they could cross the Piave and take Venice, Padua and Verona, therefore causing the Italians to surrender just as they launch their supposedly decisive attack. Thoughts?

 

[lukedalton]

A meaningfull offensive through the Tyrol is out of the question, the terrain will make it impossible; OTL the Austrian tried this move during the Caporetto offensive and even with the Italian army in disarray they were beaten.

 

[ghappy1000]

A meaningfull offensive through the Tyrol is out of the question, the terrain will make it impossible; OTL the Austrian tried this move during the Caporetto offensive and even with the Italian army in disarray they were beaten.

If they use nerve gas and German troops, that might work. After all, they did try an offensive when desperate otl [Caporetto] and it suceeded. The offensive may be even launched in September just as the Italians are preparing for the decisive blow on Austria Hungary. Plus, the supply lines from the Tyrol to Padua are shorter and the Italians, if they don't care, they may lose 2, probably 3 armies as I said because of the longer retreat, especially when they are overconfident. The troops in the Tyrol, while they may be used to defend Slovenia, the German troops used in otl Caporetto and some extra units on the Eastern front may be enough to attack Tyrol successfully, especially with better supply and coordination. When they reach Venice, the Italian troops [in this timeline in Slovenia or Croatia] would be effectively cut off and forced to surrender. After all, even if they evacuate from Trieste, they would encounter the Austro Hungarian navy, torpedo boats and u boats and naval superiority doesn't work that north of the Adriatic, especially with minefields. Also, the public perception of the war would decrease with more territory lost, plus three major Italian cities including in this tl Trieste, Verona and probably Venice and a lot of hard won territory. Also, they would lose more than 2 armies [the second army, third army[which was close to being lost in otl Caporetto and fourth army]. The Italians won't have enough strength to hold the Piave and Adige and the Central Powers' troops[mostly German and some Austrian] don't need to cross the Piave from Trentino, just take Padua and Venice to cut off Italian troops, plus the supply lines are shorter for them.

 

[lukedalton]

If they use nerve gas and German troops, that might work. After all, they did try an offensive when desperate otl [Caporetto] and it suceeded. The offensive may be even launched in September just as the Italians are preparing for the decisive blow on Austria Hungary. Plus, the supply lines from the Tyrol to Padua are shorter and the Italians, if they don't care, they may lose 2, probably 3 armies as I said because of the longer retreat, especially when they are overconfident. The troops in the Tyrol, while they may be used to defend Slovenia, the German troops used in otl Caporetto and some extra units on the Eastern front may be enough to attack Tyrol successfully, especially with better supply and coordination. When they reach Venice, the Italian troops [in this timeline in Slovenia or Croatia] would be effectively cut off and forced to surrender. After all, even if they evacuate from Trieste, they would encounter the Austro Hungarian navy, torpedo boats and u boats and naval superiority doesn't work that north of the Adriatic, especially with minefields. Also, the public perception of the war would decrease with more territory lost, plus three major Italian cities including in this tl Trieste, Verona and probably Venice and a lot of hard won territory. Also, they would lose more than 2 armies [the second army, third army[which was close to being lost in otl Caporetto and fourth army]. The Italians won't have enough strength to hold the Piave and Adige and the Central Powers' troops[mostly German and some Austrian] don't need to cross the Piave from Trentino, just take Padua and Venice to cut off Italian troops, plus the supply lines are shorter for them.

it's a problem of terrain, basically is all mountains with very few road, sure in pure term of km is shorter but it's ten times more difficult to pass troops and supply (for this reason was considered by both high command a secondary theatre) than other place and the nerve gas is not an assurance of success expecially with the cold.
Caporetto was a mix of good planning and good execution by the Germans and bad luck from the italians that is not assured to be repeated, expecially in a situation where the elite germans troops must face the italian alpini (basically their equivalent) on their homefield.

If Italy occupy Trieste, well this mean that the Austrian Navy is now a non factor as the only other meaningfull base aka Pola can be put under siege more easily from both sea and land..

 

[ghappy1000]

So, the Austrians surrender or just give up thoughts for an offensive, especially something like Caporetto? This means they surrender by 1917 and the Germans can't launch their Kaiserschlacht or modify it.

 

[ghappy1000]

Possible Timeline
10 June 1917: Battle of Ortigara never happens.
19 July to 12 August 1917: 11TH battle of Isonzo. The attack suceeds as per otl with better supplies and pierces Austrian defense line. It occurs 1 month earlier without Ortigara.
Late August to September 1917: The Italians, after taking Trieste, move into Slovenia and take Lijubljana and Bled. They prepare for the final decisive blow by taking Croatia and eastern Slovenia.
September 1917: The Austrians, wishing to save themselves from defeat, try to conduct an offensive to stop Italian attacks. It has to be launched from the Tyrol because it was unattacked and the Italians were in Slovenia. The offensive required German troops [because Austrian troops from the Tyrol had to reinforce the new front in Slovenia] and nerve gas. It was intended to take Padua and Venice and to cut off the Italians. Another plan was to advance to regain Trieste and also cut off Italian troops in Slovenia.

 

[lukedalton]

So, the Austrians surrender or just give up thoughts for an offensive, especially something like Caporetto? This means they surrender by 1917 and the Germans can't launch their Kaiserschlacht or modify it.

No, they probably trying something in Trentino but it will be more a diversive attack, the bigger one will be an attempt to repel the italians in Istria, it can work like Caporetto or be something of less devastanting for Italy, much depend on the circumstances. Still an Austrian version of Caporetto (at least regarding the morale aspect) will shacken the already weak goverment.

 

[ghappy1000]

October 1917: It was considered that, with the present situation, the Austrians attack through Tolmein to retake Trieste.
24 October 1917: The Austrians launch Caporetto through Tolmein. It is slightly less devastating for Italy despite having almost the same results. The Italians probably save about 5 more army divisions than otl. The Austrians, having to take Trieste, also take 3 to 4 more days to reach the Piave and the Austrian Fleet, escorting merchant ships fights with the Italians. Although the Italians lose a pre dreadnought, it shows the Italians that they should sail with all their naval forces against the Austrians. Possible losses and the political situation still mean that the issuing of the order was postponed until 1918. The Allies send about 8 to 9 divisions, or 3 divisions less than otl with the slightly lesser losses.
Or, the Italians lose an extra corps to an extra army during the retreat and lose Venice as they couldn't evacuate quickly [but then, they would still be sensible, even with the greater victory]. But Italy doesn't surrender [at least for 1917] and the Allies send 3 to 12 more divisions extra than otl.