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In 1790 Austria and Russia were in war against the Ottomans. Prussia was in an alliance with Great Brittain, the Netherlands and Poland and was pressuring Austria to end the turkish war (their plans involved some large scale territorial exchanges). Austria also has its Belgian provinces controlled by rebels and Hungary also has discontents thanks to Josephs II. OTL Josephs death and Leopolds ascension improved a lot on Austrias situation both internally and internationally.

So the POD would be Prussia attacking Austria. Russia would join its ally while the continuing Ottoman war would force Austria in a two front war. Joseph had panicked because of that and wanted to avoid it at all costs however Kaunitz was much more bellicose. So POD would be Joseph instead of dying gets disabled for a prolonged period of time leaving Kaunitz in charge. I dont expect Austria doing as badly as Joseph feared. I think Austria can successfully defend itself against prussian attacks in Bohemia like in 1779 while they can hold out against the Ottomans. Russia in the mean time can in one hand distract Prussian forces in East Prussia not even needing to do much and slowly beat the Ottomans on the other and after that can turn to the Prussians seriously.

Anyway this war could last for years and I dont expect any serious changes territorially from OTL. The ottomans loose maybe a bit more badly and I expect the Prussian-Austrian war to be more of a draw - maybe some resuffling of smaller german territories. However this will occupy the eastern european powers till about 1793 maybe as far as 1795 making them unable to intervene in France. Even than im not sure they would be eager to start another war just as they just finished a big one in the east.

So what would happen to France if its left to its own devices till at least 1795?
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