alternatehistory.com

Presuppose there is no Operation Torch, for any of a variety of reasons.* The allies never invade French North Africa from the Atlantic of western Mediterranean sides. (so no Operation Gymnast landing in Morrocco either).

How does this play out, in North Africa in particular, but also in other theaters and in the shipping lanes. -

I'll put forth an initial hypothesis and set of assumptions you can feel free to reject or modify as you wish:

First I assume-

A) Regardless of the lack of Operation Torch, the 8th Army is going to drive the Afrika Korps all the way out of Libya in the month or two after El Alamein. The 8th Army was built up to unprecedented strength by this point and Rommel was at the end of his logistical rope.

B) The Germans will neither withdraw Afrika Korps nor allow it to surrender or allow it be overrun without committing considerably more effort to rescue it.


From there I hypothesize-

The Germans will probably send forces to occupy French North Africa to give Rommel a line of retreat and/or secure base as he is pushed from Libya.

Like OTL, the Germans will occupy Tunisia, but in the ATL, they will also occupy key points in Algeria and Morrocco. They might also occupy Corsica and Vichy France, but probably will not, especially if the Vichy forces are as acquiescent as I think they are likel to be.

The result from December 1942 will be that:

The Libyan-Tunisian border will be the main arena for tough Commonwealth-Axis fighting, especially as the battle moves to hill country.

Germany will have access to airbases in Morrocco and Algeria to more effectively harass allied convoys in the western Mediterranean, increasing losses to convoys heading in to the Med through Gibraltar. This will make it very difficult for British forces in the Mediterranean to do any amphibious operations, and compel west Med convoys to have more escort protection for longer than OTL.

Germany will get a chance to implement more thorough anti-semitic policies for longer in the Maghreb, although large-scale deportations to Europe are likely to be prohibitively expensive.

The Germans will still have a presence in North Africa in November 1943, even if they have lost most or all of Tunisia by this point.

thoughts?
Top