No Operation Barbarossa is a negotiated peace with the Western allies possible

Say Operation Barbarossa doesn't happen due to a longer Balkan campaign and Japan still attacks pearl harbor

Would a negotiated peace with Britain and the United States be possible at some point

What would be the terms
 

Kariya

Banned
No. Without Barbarrossa Germany loses it's ability to conduct offensive action and starts slowly withering away until Allies are ready to finish it off. The war may not be over before 1950 but there is only one way it will end.
 
No Barbarossa means Germany might not even declare war with the US, this is a strict Germany-UK war. No way is it going to end with an occupation of the Reichstag, no way.

Even if the US comes in, even if the German army is weakened, it will take millions of allied lives to force an unconditional surrender of Germany. The UK and the US do not have the stomach to pay the blood price of the Soviets.
 

Marc

Donor
Let's see, the British are going to make peace with a Germany that has conquered nearly all of Western Europe? Allowing the permanent subjugation of the French, Dutch, Belgians, Danes, et al. Not to mention the growing knowledge and horror of the death camps, and the mass exterminations. And with the understanding that Germany was being led by megalomaniacs and homicidal sociopaths - sure, of course.
 
Let's see, the British are going to make peace with a Germany that has conquered nearly all of Western Europe? Allowing the permanent subjugation of the French, Dutch, Belgians, Danes, et al. Not to mention the growing knowledge and horror of the death camps, and the mass exterminations. And with the understanding that Germany was being led by megalomaniacs and homicidal sociopaths - sure, of course.

Make peace =/= allowing Germany keep its subjugations.

There is a middle point between a "Germany keeps all" peace and a march into Berlin.
 
Stalin does a happy little jig as he continues to build up for the decisive struggle he predicts will be coming around 45. With the uninterrupted flow of the resources of its rich eastern European regions and lack of disruption to industrial and military organization brought in by the improvised mass retreat iotl the "5 year plan" produces on schedule a Red Army that outmatchs anything the Germans built. War ends with Soviets on the Rhine and in Rome, at best for the WAllies
 
Stalin does a happy little jig as he continues to build up for the decisive struggle he predicts will be coming around 45. With the uninterrupted flow of the resources of its rich eastern European regions and lack of disruption to industrial and military organization brought in by the improvised mass retreat iotl the "5 year plan" produces on schedule a Red Army that outmatchs anything the Germans built. War ends with Soviets on the Rhine and in Rome, at best for the WAllies

Stalin is never going to attack first if it risks war against the allies. The guy never gambled unless he had a deck with 95%+ chances of winning.
 
Make peace =/= allowing Germany keep its subjugations.

There is a middle point between a "Germany keeps all" peace and a march into Berlin.

But Germany is never going to negotiate peace and give up France, the allies are going to have to make them give it up. They kick Italy's ass, invade from the South and prepare for an invasion of France. And once the allies are strong enough to land in France, they will go all the way to Berlin, the Germans are probably going to make them do that as the Nazi leadership is too stubborn, proud and crazy to acknowledge defeat. Not to mention the Soviets will probably attack as well by that time, making it a race for Berlin anyway.

Besides, once the allies are going to invade, they won't get the casualties like the Soviet suffered. Going to be high, but not millions.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
Hitler should have play a cardboard version of Civ. His diplomatic reputation was so low, for continually breaking his word that no one believed him anymore.
 
No Barbarossa means Germany might not even declare war with the US,

The Americans and Germans were already shooting at each other in the Atlantic by the time of Barbarossa, Hitler will likely declare war on the US after Pearl Harbour as per OTL.

Even if the US comes in, even if the German army is weakened, it will take millions of allied lives to force an unconditional surrender of Germany. The UK and the US do not have the stomach to pay the blood price of the Soviets.

The stomach line was something the Axis prattled on about a lot during the war but it was never borne out no matter how grim the situation got. Even without the Soviet Union, the WAllies still greatly surpassed the Germans in regards to industry and manpower, they will still be able to attain air superiority over France as per OTL and by late 1945 the Americans will have the atomic bomb. The war will last longer, and the WAllies will suffer more, but Germany will crack before they do.
 
No Barbarossa means Germany might not even declare war with the US, this is a strict Germany-UK war. No way is it going to end with an occupation of the Reichstag, no way.

It is less likely. But only because Berlin is more likely to become a radioactive crater.

The US may not have officially joined the war until December 1941, but the US was in no way acting like a neutral. If Roosevelt can't convince Congress to give him a declaration of war, he can continue supporting Britain until Anglo-American atom bombs are available in sufficient quantity to smash apart any industrial center or concentration of troops the Germans care to present. War is over by 1947 tops.

More likely Roosevelt finds another way to get the US into the war though. There was a strong faction (Roosevelt was one) that wanted the US to have a seat at the peace table and a share of the spoils.

Why can Germany not get peace? Mostly because WW2 shifted people's perceptions of the end of WW1 - people saw Germany as infected by a disease of militarism and they thought that the failure of WW1 had been to not completely smash the German state to allow a new healthy Germany to grow back in its place...

And while no Russia in the war for a while is hard, the WAllies can still achieve their aim even if Russia never lifts a finger to help.

The other reason why you won't see a negotiated peace is because the Germans are highly unlikely to bring themselves to ask for anything reasonable. While they are winning, asking for less than everything they occupy is hard, and as soon as they stop winning they start loosing, at which point anything but complete capitulation is unreasonable. Plus, they were Nazis, which makes them even less reasonable.

Stalin is never going to attack first if it risks war against the allies. The guy never gambled unless he had a deck with 95%+ chances of winning.

And the Allies are going to continue their efforts to get Stalin into the war on their side. (Though they may ALSO launch direct strikes against the Soviet Union, like bombing the Caucasian oil fields. I'm honestly not sure what would happen there - Stalin will want to ignore any WAllied provocations until he's ready. But a bad provocation and a good offer from Germany - which is very unlikely to ever happen, but possible - could lead to Stalin declaring war on Britain.)

Most likely, without Barbarossa, the WAllies are able to bribe Stalin into the war - maybe in 1942 or early '43 when the red army's military reforms are complete.

No-one has any objections to Russians doing lots of dying to smash Germany.

fasquardon
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Say Operation Barbarossa doesn't happen due to a longer Balkan campaign and Japan still attacks pearl harbor

Would a negotiated peace with Britain and the United States be possible at some point

What would be the terms

Sure. And the Nazi could win the war too, if Stalin does not cut off raw materials.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
But Germany is never going to negotiate peace and give up France, the allies are going to have to make them give it up. They kick Italy's ass, invade from the South and prepare for an invasion of France. And once the allies are strong enough to land in France, they will go all the way to Berlin, the Germans are probably going to make them do that as the Nazi leadership is too stubborn, proud and crazy to acknowledge defeat. Not to mention the Soviets will probably attack as well by that time, making it a race for Berlin anyway.

Besides, once the allies are going to invade, they won't get the casualties like the Soviet suffered. Going to be high, but not millions.

If the Nazi don't plan to go into Russia, the strategy is totally different. Much of the Heer is put back into reserve status and the resources are moved to the Luftwaffe and Navy. The replacement schedule for tanks and the like are reduce and produced in a more rational manner. i.e. More like a Stalin 5 year plan. The Germans will still likely lose the initial push to knock the UK out of the war. The strategy then likely becomes more Med focused, maybe Africa focused. It probably involves things like bringing Spain into the war to close the Med and to make attacks into the Atlantic even easier.

And somewhere in this process, it is possible that peace will look good to the UK. Maybe 6 months in, maybe 6 years in, maybe 12.
 
If the Nazi don't plan to go into Russia, the strategy is totally different. Much of the Heer is put back into reserve status and the resources are moved to the Luftwaffe and Navy. The replacement schedule for tanks and the like are reduce and produced in a more rational manner. i.e. More like a Stalin 5 year plan. The Germans will still likely lose the initial push to knock the UK out of the war. The strategy then likely becomes more Med focused, maybe Africa focused. It probably involves things like bringing Spain into the war to close the Med and to make attacks into the Atlantic even easier.

And somewhere in this process, it is possible that peace will look good to the UK. Maybe 6 months in, maybe 6 years in, maybe 12.

I think you are right about the first part. For the second part... Considering how badly the Germans did with their logistics invading Russia, I'm not sure they'd be able to do much better in North Africa and the Middle East. Sure, they can hurt the British. But I can't see them reaching Iraq. Indeed, I could only see them barely reaching Suez in the absolute best case.

fasquardon
 
If the Nazi don't plan to go into Russia, the strategy is totally different. Much of the Heer is put back into reserve status and the resources are moved to the Luftwaffe and Navy. The replacement schedule for tanks and the like are reduce and produced in a more rational manner. i.e. More like a Stalin 5 year plan. The Germans will still likely lose the initial push to knock the UK out of the war. The strategy then likely becomes more Med focused, maybe Africa focused. It probably involves things like bringing Spain into the war to close the Med and to make attacks into the Atlantic even easier.

And somewhere in this process, it is possible that peace will look good to the UK. Maybe 6 months in, maybe 6 years in, maybe 12.

yes well of course its a strange scenario because nazis that don't attack the USSR are not really nazis. But i get what you mean. Although, the OP talks about war with the UK AND US, and in that scenario the UK isn't going for peace. The Meds isn't really goodi dea for the Germans as the UK still controls the sea. All they can do is go through Turkey, but that adds more problems than it solves really.

All of this has been discussed over and over again on this forum of course. Might as well go back to older threads.
 
But Germany is never going to negotiate peace and give up France, the allies are going to have to make them give it up. They kick Italy's ass, invade from the South and prepare for an invasion of France. And once the allies are strong enough to land in France, they will go all the way to Berlin, the Germans are probably going to make them do that as the Nazi leadership is too stubborn, proud and crazy to acknowledge defeat. Not to mention the Soviets will probably attack as well by that time, making it a race for Berlin anyway.

Besides, once the allies are going to invade, they won't get the casualties like the Soviet suffered. Going to be high, but not millions.

Germany does not HAVE France - it has a Northern occupation zone. There were several important voices in Germany who wanted Hitler to admit Vichy to the Axis as the first step towards finalising the process - France would regain its occupied lands for 1) cessions in the East 2) German military bases, especially naval and airforce 3) France tied to Germany in the Axis
 
Germany does not HAVE France - it has a Northern occupation zone.

Vichy can't really be considered to be much more than a willing client state of Germany, and it certainly wasn't by the British by the end of 1940. A peace deal which leaves the Vichy regime in charge would be just as bad as the Germans installing a puppet.

There were several important voices in Germany who wanted Hitler to admit Vichy to the Axis as the first step towards finalising the process - France would regain its occupied lands for 1) cessions in the East 2) German military bases, especially naval and airforce 3) France tied to Germany in the Axis

Which important voices? I know there were a a handful of Germans based in France who advocated this view but I wasn't aware that any of the big players came out in favour of it. Likewise, there was a great deal of resistance to this notion within Vichy, although if memory serves Darlan did flirt with it for a time.
 
Germany does not HAVE France - it has a Northern occupation zone. There were several important voices in Germany who wanted Hitler to admit Vichy to the Axis as the first step towards finalising the process - France would regain its occupied lands for 1) cessions in the East 2) German military bases, especially naval and airforce 3) France tied to Germany in the Axis

relax man. Its not like the French had it. The Nazis occupied the biggest and most important portion of France. That better?
 

DougM

Donor
I think that we need to quit exaggerating Russia’s contribution to the war. Yes they had a huge effect. And a Large number of Russians dies and the occupied a large chunk of the German military leaving England the US and co to have an easier go of it. But that does not mean that the war would have been lost if they stayed out of it.
Keep in mind that by lat 43 the US was actually slowing down its production and drastically cutting back shipments to England. So much so that you could argue that the Invasion was fought with what was in England by Early 44. I can show you the numbers for train movements along the PM/C&O To Newport News. And they peeked in very late 43 very Early 44. As after that the US was shipping more towards the Pacific.
The US could have taken Germany in a straight fight if it wanted to. The size, population, wealth, resources and size of Navy is such that ultimately Germany was Screwed. And if you compare the British Empire to Germany things are not going to go Germany’s way in a Germany vs English Empire fight either. The cost is going to be high in both examples, much higher then if Russia is in the game but it is a cost that can be paid.
And in the case of the US it may not even need to pay the whole cost as in the Summer of 45 Germany is going to start losing cities one at a time under mushroom clouds.

So if you want a German “Win” you are going to need to find a way to get England to decide that the fight is not worth it. And they need to decide that before Dec of 41 And that is hard to do. And Russia has NOTHING to do with this as for all intents and purposes Russia was hardly in the war before December of 41 and they were not exactly doing well for the short time they were in it. So from England’s pointvof view they were fighting along so Germany not attacking Russia has no effect whatsoever until well into 42.
So I don’t see how Germany not attacking Russia is going to save them. Will it make the cost higher for the rest of the counties fighting Germany? Obviously but it is a cost that can and will be paid.
 
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