No Oil Shocks?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Diplomacy won't cut it, we need to go to the source and look at why the Crisis' happened in the first place. OAPEC called for embargo in response of American aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The second Crisis occurred in the wake of the Iranian revolution, and the Iran-Iraq war didn't help at all. The result of the second crisis was Mexico, Venezuela, North Sea states and the USSR becoming major Oil exporters.

To avoid the First Crisis, Israel will have to loose a lot of American aid. Israel will still likely win, or at least bring the war to a stalemate, and America and Israel are going to drift apart in the post-war. OAPEC doesn't raise the price of oil and launch an embargo.
 

Deleted member 1487

Diplomacy won't cut it, we need to go to the source and look at why the Crisis' happened in the first place. OAPEC called for embargo in response of American aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The second Crisis occurred in the wake of the Iranian revolution, and the Iran-Iraq war didn't help at all. The result of the second crisis was Mexico, Venezuela, North Sea states and the USSR becoming major Oil exporters.

To avoid the First Crisis, Israel will have to loose a lot of American aid. Israel will still likely win, or at least bring the war to a stalemate, and America and Israel are going to drift apart in the post-war. OAPEC doesn't raise the price of oil and launch an embargo.

Or sensing a war was brewing the US gets involved by bribing the Arabs to stay out of war with Israel like we do now with $1 Billion in aid to Egypt yearly.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Or sensing a war was brewing the US gets involved by bribing the Arabs to stay out of war with Israel like we do now with $1 Billion in aid to Egypt yearly.

Why would Egypt or Syria except the bribe? They see Israel as invaders occupying their rightful territory, they're people are angry and want results, and for half a decade Nasser, Sadat, and Al-Assad have been preparing to reclaim the prestige and dignity they lost in the Six Day War. They engaged in the War of Attrition from 1967-1970, and it was agreed in 1967 by the Arab forces to follow the three No's: No recognition, No peace, and No negotiations.

Sadat proposed a peace initiative, which offered forgiveness in exchange for the pre-67 borders. Israel refused. Four months before, Henry Kissinger, the man behind American's aid to Israel, proposed the Sinai become a DMZ of sorts. This was ignored, and it was too late, Sadat was getting the Sinai back by force.

Yes, America does donate a Billion to Egypt now, but things have changed since 1973, and Sadat ain't accepting a bribe. Unless we change the result of the Six-Day War or can convince Israel to accept Sadat's offer, the PoD will likely have to be America's involvement with the war.
 

Deleted member 1487

Why would Egypt or Syria except the bribe? They see Israel as invaders occupying their territory, they're people are angry and want results, and for half a decade Nasser, Sadat, and Al-Assad have been preparing to reclaim the prestige and dignity they lost in the Six Day War.

Sadat proposed a peace initiative, which offered forgiveness in exchange for the pre-67 borders. Israel refused. Four months before, Henry Kissinger, the man behind American's aid to Israel, proposed the Sinai become a DMZ of sorts. This was ignored, and it was too late, Sadat was getting the Sinai back by force.

Yes, America does donate a Billion to Egypt now, but things have changed since 1973, and Sadat ain't accepting a bribe.
They were hard up for money and getting US aid would be something tangible they could give as handouts to the people to buy them off and still use Israel as a boogeyman. Link the bribes to Israel accepting the peace deal so that no one comes after them anymore. It worked after 1973:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War#Egyptian-Israeli-Camp_David_Accords
Sadat was on board.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
They were hard up for money and getting US aid would be something tangible they could give as handouts to the people to buy them off and still use Israel as a boogeyman. Link the bribes to Israel accepting the peace deal so that no one comes after them anymore. It worked after 1973:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War#Egyptian-Israeli-Camp_David_Accords
Sadat was on board.

Yes, it worked after 1973. Before then, Egypt and Syria had Soviet backing. Also, it's worth noting the Accords famously resulted in the Egypt-Libyan War and Sadat getting shot, so it's not hard to imagine what could happen if he accepted American Aid, Israel's biggest friend on the international stage. Also, Sadat would face resistance from nearly everyone in Egypt and the Arab World if he accepted such a bribe.
 
The primary problem was US oil production peaked in 1970 while demand for oil continued to increase. So, an oil shock is nearly inevitable of some form as sooner or later a supply disruption was likely to occur. It's analogous to someone living paycheck to paycheck and ending up in bankruptcy after losing their job. As long as they are paycheck to paycheck they are vulnerable and any number of ways bring it on. Back on point, OPEC, at some point, would discover their pricing power and contrive a reason for a pullback in production. Best case scenario is that oil prices increase in a slow steady fashion, which tempers inflation somewhat.
 
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