Is it possible for Christians to just leave those Pagans alone?
And what political, cultural and technological effect would it have upon those nations, especially Lithuania?
There are very high possibility that the crusades delayed conversion of Lithuanians. Muscovites and Poles would have even less possibility to move into area than in OTL, a lot of power was distracted by crusades.If there were no Northern Crusades, you would see fewer Germans settled in the Baltic region today. The Teutonic Knights and the Livonion "Brothers of the Sword" were mostly made up of Germans, and their conquests were mostly settled by Germans from the Holy Roman Empire, or the Hanseatic League.
The Lithuanians and Prussians might have remained Pagan for another century or so, but eventually either the Muscovites or the Poles are going to move into the area and convert them to some form of Christianity.
The former is more likely.The only real variable is whether or not those Pagans will become Catholic (and later, perhaps Protestant) or Orthodox. Orthodoxy would bring those states closer to Russia, which would have become important in the 19th Century.
Is it possible for Christians to just leave those Pagans alone?
And what political, cultural and technological effect would it have upon those nations, especially Lithuania?
This is a actually going to be huge not because the Baltics are going to remain pagan (they won't) but because this is going to significantly impact the rise of Brandenburg-Prussia
Without Prussia as the base for the Junker class I don't know if Brandenburg will ever rise above a medium German power, even if it does will it be recognizable?
Cynical as it may sound, but the conditio sine qua non for this is that those pagans stop piracy and leave Baltic trade alone. Spreading Christianity was just an excuse, the real reason was those pagans being a pain in the a**.Is it possible for Christians to just leave those Pagans alone?
Those pagans weren't the only pirates in Baltic. Spreading Christianity was excuse for land grabs that was main reason for fierce resistance to the christianisation.Cynical as it may sound, but the conditio sine qua non for this is that those pagans stop piracy and leave Baltic trade alone. Spreading Christianity was just an excuse, the real reason was those pagans being a pain in the a**.
edit: I'm very sceptical of invoking a 'charismatic leader' to achieve political centralization and modernization. The tribes were very different, and the whole region was very sparsely populated even by 12...13th century standards. You might say that Arab peninsula was also populated sparsely, but well, it's mostly a desert. On contrary, before wet forests were cleared, Baltic lands had natural hideouts on every step.
To conduct state relations, dynastic marriage etc was possible to Pagans as well, there are enough examples in Lithuanian history for that.There are some very strong socio-economic factors that will compel the Baltic peoples to become Christian anyway. It's the same reason why the Scandinavians, West Slavs, East Slavs, and Hungarians become Christians (without being invaded by warrior monks).
1) Being Christian makes you part of the international order of Europe. It allows you to conduct state relations, dynastic marriage, secure trade, etc.
Original Prussia (those tribes along Vistula) maybe, but the Southern part of Livonia and the Eastern part of Prussia would be Lithuanian, they were very active in taking control over, when crusades interfered.The Lithuanians were already in the process of becoming Catholicized at this time, and eventually did so in the late 1300s. Livonia and Prussia may take longer, but will eventually do so. Prussia will probably become part of the Polish state. Livonia may or may not remain independent, and it's always possible it will become Orthodox instead.