No New Deal/WWII, how long until US recover from Great Depression

Wallet

Banned
There is lots of debate on when the Great Depression ended in the US. The New Deal almost certainly helped, but was slowed down in 1938 and the country entered a mini recession. It was until World War II when the US entered full military production did the US completely and full recover from the Great Depression which allowed it to enter an economic boom for the next few decades.

Assume that there isn't a New Deal like program or any other economic stimulus. Maybe FDR dies and Garner becomes VP. And assume either WWII doesn't occur or the US doesn't enter it or even enters it much later.

Also assume that worst case civil unrest doesn't occur, so no civil war or bonus army coup.

How long until the US completely recovers from the Great Depression ATL?
 
That is a difficult question to answer, but I'll try my best.

The Great Depression was the result of multiple factors such as stock losses, the not-that-good job potential and the Dust Bowl. If there is no New Deal, the only way the US woild pull itself out of its Depression would be for other companies to adopt policies such as paying their workers more so they could spend more money and the flow continues. For the man's numerous (and I meant numerous) faults, Ford understood that well. He paid the folks in his factories more than what they would in similar types of work so they can get leisure and buy the products being made. The US economy would have to adopt Keynesian economics on a whole. But given the inherent greed and ties to the system, alot of the big wigs wil be dragging their feet until they see it has no choice.

Although if we're going to be technical, the US could still force companies to enact these reforms rather than make the jobs themselves through the New Deal.

Leaving the economy alone and hope everything will resolve itself caused the Great Depression in the first place.
 

manav95

Banned
I'd say about 10-12 years since the New Deal-led recovery led to unemployment being at 11% in mid-1937. The slower pace of recovery would be tempered by the fact that there would likely be no bubbles or massive crashes/panics happening in the interim. Just slow, painful recovery as sticky wages and prices fall gradually and enable businesses to start hiring ppl again and letting unemployment fall again.
 

QueerSpear

Banned
The new deal prolonged the great depression and caused the 38 issues

No it didn't. That's a standard bogus attack based on ignorance of historical facts.

It was the failed policies of the Hoover administration based around the free market which turned a nasty recession into a depression, leading to thousands of businesses going bankrupt and the loss of millions of jobs. The so called Roosevelt Recession was triggered when FDR implemented fiscal conservative policies- indeed that the 1938 Recession is a perfect example of how useless fiscal conservatism is.

FDR raised taxes to balance the budget and the Federal Reserve implemented a contractionary policy (that is, the amount of money being spend was lower than the amount of tax revenue. Contractionary policies are implemented when you attempt for instance to pay off the debt or balance a budget). It was only when FDR reversed policies, increased the public works programs while the Reserve reversed the contractionary policies and eased credit.
 
[QUOTE="QueerSpear, post: how-fdr-made-depression-worse it didn't. That's a standard bogus attack based on ignorance of historical facts.

It was the failed policies of the Hoover administration based around the free market which turned a nasty recession into a depression, leading to thousands of businesses going bankrupt and the loss of millions of jobs. The so called Roosevelt Recession was triggered when FDR implemented fiscal conservative policies- indeed that the 1938 Recession is a perfect example of how useless fiscal conservatism is.

FDR raised taxes to balance the budget and the Federal Reserve implemented a contractionary policy (that is, the amount of money being spend was lower than the amount of tax revenue. Contractionary policies are implemented when you attempt for instance to pay off the debt or balance a budget). It was only when FDR reversed policies, increased the public works programs while the Reserve reversed the contractionary policies and eased credit.[/QUOTE]

https://mises.org/library/how-fdr-made-depression-worse

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409

https://fee.org/articles/fdrs-folly-how-roosevelt-and-his-new-deal-prolonged-the-great-depression/

You were saying
 

RousseauX

Donor
[QUOTE="QueerSpear, post: how-fdr-made-depression-worse it didn't. That's a standard bogus attack based on ignorance of historical facts.

It was the failed policies of the Hoover administration based around the free market which turned a nasty recession into a depression, leading to thousands of businesses going bankrupt and the loss of millions of jobs. The so called Roosevelt Recession was triggered when FDR implemented fiscal conservative policies- indeed that the 1938 Recession is a perfect example of how useless fiscal conservatism is.

FDR raised taxes to balance the budget and the Federal Reserve implemented a contractionary policy (that is, the amount of money being spend was lower than the amount of tax revenue. Contractionary policies are implemented when you attempt for instance to pay off the debt or balance a budget). It was only when FDR reversed policies, increased the public works programs while the Reserve reversed the contractionary policies and eased credit.

https://mises.org/library/how-fdr-made-depression-worse

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409

https://fee.org/articles/fdrs-folly-how-roosevelt-and-his-new-deal-prolonged-the-great-depression/

You were saying[/QUOTE]
The austrian school is garbage
 
I'm not sure how well I would trust those sources. At least the first one relies on the Austrian school of economics, which relies on axioms rather than empirical observations.

But back on point, that would depend on other issues, especially since the Dust Bowl element could create bigger divides in the US.

Without World War II though. it would definitely take longer since the US would not be able to supply sides with arms and other supplies.

Though by recover, are we comparing it to conditions before the Great Depression or to boom post-WW2?
 

RousseauX

Donor
There is lots of debate on when the Great Depression ended in the US. The New Deal almost certainly helped, but was slowed down in 1938 and the country entered a mini recession. It was until World War II when the US entered full military production did the US completely and full recover from the Great Depression which allowed it to enter an economic boom for the next few decades.

Assume that there isn't a New Deal like program or any other economic stimulus. Maybe FDR dies and Garner becomes VP. And assume either WWII doesn't occur or the US doesn't enter it or even enters it much later.

Also assume that worst case civil unrest doesn't occur, so no civil war or bonus army coup.

How long until the US completely recovers from the Great Depression ATL?
sometime in the 1940s

the thing that ended the depression is going off the gold standard which allowed expansionist monetary policy to contract the contractionary monetary affects of banks closing

the other half of the great depression was self-inflicted by high tariff walls enacted by every country to protect their own industries but since everybody did it it destroyed global trade and caused job losses

FDR and other leaders around the world got rid of those two things in the 30s, the economy was going to recover
 
Leaving the economy alone and hope everything will resolve itself caused the Great Depression in the first place.

That is a common misconception. In fact, Mr. Hoover signed many interventionist laws and policies into place, such as tariff hikes which sparked reciprocal increases on U.S. goods abroad, and actually made things worse.

He was not the laissez-faire type left-wing propagandists and FDR fanboys love to say he was.

In the past when the Panics struck every few decades, the reaction of government had been to do very little, sometimes plainly nothing, and in each such instance the economy rebounded in a few years and was actually better overall than it had been before. While the New Deal did indeed put food on the tables of many families, it was overall a failure. Henry J. Morgenthau Jr., one of the authors of the New Deal, outright called it a failure when he addressed Congress in May of 1939.
 

RousseauX

Donor
That is a common misconception. In fact, Mr. Hoover signed many interventionist laws and policies into place, such as tariff hikes which sparked reciprocal increases on U.S. goods abroad, and actually made things worse.

He was not the laissez-faire type left-wing propagandists and FDR fanboys love to say he was.

In the past when the Panics struck every few decades, the reaction of government had been to do very little, sometimes plainly nothing, and in each such instance the economy rebounded in a few years and was actually better overall than it had been before. While the New Deal did indeed put food on the tables of many families, it was overall a failure. Henry J. Morgenthau Jr., one of the authors of the New Deal, outright called it a failure when he addressed Congress in May of 1939.
The legacy of the new deal was to construct a fundamentally better social contract once the country came out of the depression and WWII, regardless of its stimulus affect on the economy or lack thereof
 
That is a common misconception. In fact, Mr. Hoover signed many interventionist laws and policies into place, such as tariff hikes which sparked reciprocal increases on U.S. goods abroad, and actually made things worse.

He was not the laissez-faire type left-wing propagandists and FDR fanboys love to say he was.

In the past when the Panics struck every few decades, the reaction of government had been to do very little, sometimes plainly nothing, and in each such instance the economy rebounded in a few years and was actually better overall than it had been before. While the New Deal did indeed put food on the tables of many families, it was overall a failure. Henry J. Morgenthau Jr., one of the authors of the New Deal, outright called it a failure when he addressed Congress in May of 1939.

Why did he call it a failure? Was it because it didn't go farhter enough or for something else?

In addition, the problem with the Great Depression was its global rammifications. It was bigger than anything before, plus it came locked with the Dustbowl which added even further trouble.
 
The general consensus nowadays among mainstream economists is that the New Deal was a mixed bag in resolving the Great Depression. Some of the efforts helped improve the economy, while others such as the work codes and pricing structures were counter-productive. It was an effort that basically tried a lot of different ideas and see what worked.
It is really hard to say when the Great Depression would have ended without the New Deal because if FDR had not tried it, the next President would have tried similar actions. Without WWII, it probably would have taken until the mid-1940s for the economy to rebound.
 
The general consensus nowadays among mainstream economists is that the New Deal was a mixed bag in resolving the Great Depression. Some of the efforts helped improve the economy, while others such as the work codes and pricing structures were counter-productive. It was an effort that basically tried a lot of different ideas and see what worked.
It is really hard to say when the Great Depression would have ended without the New Deal because if FDR had not tried it, the next President would have tried similar actions. Without WWII, it probably would have taken until the mid-1940s for the economy to rebound.
Not to mention that the Great Depression's global rammifications would end up causing World War II in part because of the Treaty of Versailles, especially with the war debts
 
Here are some excerpts from a Forbes articles of 2/13/2009 discussing the New Deal and the Great Depression.

"The true New Deal legacy, however, is more complicated. Serious mistakes were indeed made. In particular, the National Industrial Recovery Act was fundamentally ill-conceived and retarded economic recovery. But in terms of fiscal policy, Roosevelt’s error wasn’t that he spent too much, but that he didn’t spend nearly enough."

"The NIRA imposed a vast system of price controls on the economy to prevent prices from falling. But this was worse than doing nothing because it prevented readjustment, which would have aided economic recovery. Luckily, the experiment with the NIRA was short lived; the Supreme Court found it unconstitutional in 1935."

"Furthermore, an expansive fiscal policy was essential to recovery because without it monetary policy was impotent and deflationary conditions continued. Although Roosevelt had economists like Leon Henderson and Lauchlin Currie around him who perfectly well understood this, he did not heed their advice. Roosevelt preferred instead the counsel of Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, who argued that the modest budget deficits Roosevelt ran in his first term were exacerbating the economy’s problems, rather than being part of the cure. In 1937, Morgenthau was successful in getting Roosevelt to raise taxes and cut spending, and in convincing the Fed to tighten monetary policy because prices were finally starting to rise. This was, of course, absolutely the wrong policy. The result was an immediate economic setback. (It should be noted that the Great Depression was not a continuous downturn, but actually two severe recessions—one lasting from August 1929 to March 1933, and another from May 1937 to June 1938, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.)"

Morgenthau never really believed in the revolutionary economic ideas proposed for the New Deal, he was the product of the banking/investment industry and expect for his very personal relationship with FDR would have probably been a member of the Republican party and fiscal conservatism.
 

Iron Sun

Banned
That is a common misconception. In fact, Mr. Hoover signed many interventionist laws and policies into place, such as tariff hikes which sparked reciprocal increases on U.S. goods abroad, and actually made things worse.
What were these "many interventionist laws and practices"? Do you have a non-biased source?
 
We already ja
@The ministry of happiness

https://mises.org/library/children-and-rights

Now if a parent may own his child (within the framework of non-aggression and runaway freedom), then he may also transfer that ownership to someone else. He may give the child out for adoption, or he may sell the rights to the child in a voluntary contract. In short, we must face the fact that the purely free society will have a flourishing free market in children.
We already have one in adoption agencies so your point is what
 
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