No nazi takeover in Germany - butterflies in East Asia

In this scenario either there is no nazi takeover in Germany or the nazis are ousted early so that they are not able to build up the German army. What consequences would this have for East Asia? Japan was allied with Germany. Would Japan still at some point end up in a war with one or more western power, possibly also the Soviet Union?
 
In this scenario either there is no nazi takeover in Germany or the nazis are ousted early so that they are not able to build up the German army. What consequences would this have for East Asia? Japan was allied with Germany. Would Japan still at some point end up in a war with one or more western power, possibly also the Soviet Union?

Japan will attack the Western Powers. Their interests clashed with the West's interests, so the war was inevitable in Asia.

Even in OTL, Germany and Japan were pretty much just allies on paper. It was really hard for both sides to help each other due to the distance.

Soviet Union will probably never suffer an invasion and will not have an experienced and reformed army if they attempted to invade Japan. I could possibly see them invading Manchuria during the last few days of the war, but I predict they'll be much slower than OTL.

If it comes down to Japan vs the West, Japan will get utterly smashed. The USA will throw a table on Japan's head and won't be fighting with a hand behind their back.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... well, Japan and Germany didn't conduct much of common actions, that's true.

But I would assume, that Britain and France and the US - at least economically (even though probably underestimated in its abilities) - tied up to a great extend in fighting Germany, Britain to surrender in short thought of as a very possible option at that time, triggered Nippons attacks NOW for quite some extent.

On the other side :
without a mighty Germany going to war - against the Wallies as well as Stalin - there might have been other options for them to exlpoit
- go back on the SU again "joined" with the wallies against Bolshevism
- team up with SU against the Wallies (depending on how greedy Stalin might have been on far east aquisitions)

(well, I'm far from being an 'expert' of the japanes at that time, just my 2 cents)
 
Yes, even though Japan did not get any direct help from Germany, they were indirectly helped by the fact that the Western powers had to fight Germany (and Italy) as well as Japan. France, of course, was even occupied by Germany. If Japan had not been allied with Germany, I assume that they would not have expanded as much as they did. If this is correct, was the attack on Pearl Harbor really inevitable?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... "inevitable" ... daring as it was, dunno,

But it makes sense :
with France out of the GAME, GB (RN) tied up in blockade and war in the atlantic, the US was the biggest single (very) possible enemy to face eventually.
In underestimating the US ability to 'come back' it made sense to try to knock out all/most of their pacific fleet in one swift move.

... thinking of, even without the european conflict it would have made sense, since the above said (biggest possible enemy aka US pacific fleet) still holds true.
 
... "inevitable" ... daring as it was, dunno,

But it makes sense :
with France out of the GAME, GB (RN) tied up in blockade and war in the atlantic, the US was the biggest single (very) possible enemy to face eventually.
In underestimating the US ability to 'come back' it made sense to try to knock out all/most of their pacific fleet in one swift move.

... thinking of, even without the european conflict it would have made sense, since the above said (biggest possible enemy aka US pacific fleet) still holds true.

Well, I was thinking here with an early POD, where Germany was not a nazi power and was neither allied with Japan nor a military power of importance (either because the nazis never came to power or because they were ousted relatively early, before they were able to build up the military). In this scenario, France would not be occupied and Britain could use much more of its energy fighting a potential Japanese attack on its colonies and interests. In such a scenario, an attack on the United States would be a lot more daring than it was in OTL. The USA could also use all its energy fighting Japan, as it would not have to fight Germany at the same time.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
In that case it would be important what are the relations between the wallies and Stalin ... and what he would do/have done already to the baltics and southeast-europe.

The 'main' problem for japan -afaik - was its kind of stalemate in China, that let them look for other opportunities.

There's still the possibilty to play the 'Stalin'-card one way or the other, depending on Stalin.
 
In that case it would be important what are the relations between the wallies and Stalin ... and what he would do/have done already to the baltics and southeast-europe.

The 'main' problem for japan -afaik - was its kind of stalemate in China, that let them look for other opportunities.

There's still the possibilty to play the 'Stalin'-card one way or the other, depending on Stalin.

But wouldn´t Japan and the Soviet Union/Russia have conflicting interests in the area? I find it difficult to see a possibility of alliance there (although, of course in OTL Stalin made a deal with Hitler, so who knows).
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Offer him the eastern part of inner Mongolia, Sinkiang, Quinghai and ... perhaps even Tibet ... and ofc a big lot of central asia including persia (all this GB influence zones there ... :p), talking of proper shares on india later
 
Offer him the eastern part of inner Mongolia, Sinkiang, Quinghai and ... perhaps even Tibet ... and ofc a big lot of central asia including persia (all this GB influence zones there ... :p), talking of proper shares on india later

I assume you mean the western part of inner Mongolia, so that Japan can get the eastern part?
 
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