No Nazi and Italian intervention in the Spanish Civil War.

What if the Nazis and the Italians never intervened in the Spanish Civil War? Maybe because they realize sooner that Franco is just a conservative/reactionary Catholic nationalist, and not a true fascist. Would the Nationalists still have won?
 
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What if the Nazis and the Italians never intervened in the Spanish Civil War? Maybe, because, they realize sooner, that, Franco is just a conservative/reactionary Catholic nationalist, and not a, true, fascist. Would the Nationalists, still, have won?

No. The Nationalists had no airlift capacity to get their troops across from Spanish North Africa, and the Navy supported the Republic. Without Hitler supplying aircraft, Franco would have been left to rot impotently in Morocco and would probably have ended up having to surrender once the lack of supplies bit home.
 
would be curious the consensus if only one or the other of Germany and Italy participated? (if neither aided Nationalists their coup would almost certainly have failed)
 

Marc

Donor
It has some interesting potentials, including that the Germans might be compelled to invade Spain in 1940-41. Throws quite a bit of WW2 off the historical channels.
 
It has some interesting potentials, including that the Germans might be compelled to invade Spain in 1940-41. Throws quite a bit of WW2 off the historical channels.

If so, Britain likely activates the Anglo Portuguese treaty and tries to pull off a second Peninsular War...
 

Marc

Donor
If so, Britain likely activates the Anglo Portuguese treaty and tries to pull off a second Peninsular War...

Not sure if the British could pull it off redux. But it would certainly change the entire texture and timber of the early war - including a possible delay in the invasion of Russia.
A quick thought: The Germans assign Italy to the task. I could see the appeal to Mussolini...
 
A Soviet aligned, Republican Spain in 1940 is fascinating and this might be the thread to discuss it since otherwise discussions get bogged down in the question of whether this was even possible.

Assuming that Spain is aligned with the Soviet Union, as long as the Nazi-Soviet Pact holds nothing happens. Germany is not going to kick off their war with the Soviet Union prematurely by messing with Spain in this situation. One thing that might change is that the Spanish might let the Germans through to take Gibraltar. Germany could even agree to some of Molotov's demands in return for the Gibraltar operation and u-boat basing rights in Spain, which could actually delay Barbarossa. Note that OTL the u-boats did use Spanish ports for resupply.

If none of the above happens, and Barbarossa kicks off on schedule, chances are the Germans do nothing about Spain, since they have a buffer state in Vichy France already and they know they can't support both Barbarossa and a peninsular campaign. But there are potential butterflies here with both the Axis Mediterranean strategy and with Germany policy towards Vichy France (the Germans have to be more supportive). And there is no Blue Division, which was actually useful in maintaining the siege of Leningrad.

If you can get Peninsular Campaign 2 that changes the entire war, and even if not there are a number of potential interesting butterfly effects.
 
Without German/italian intervention I'd think the war would be over so quickly it might be perceived by the history books as a dragged out coup attempt. This short war scenario butterflies away deep Soviet penetration of the Republican government. For strategic reasons France, with Brit backing would make some effort to influence Spain and thwart continued Communist activity, as well as German Facist activity.

If so, Britain likely activates the Anglo Portuguese treaty and tries to pull off a second Peninsular War...

Probablly won't work out the same was a second time... But, the Brits will have no problem controlling the Atlantic Islands from the Cape Verde to the Azores. This make life more difficult for the mid Atlantic deployed Axis submarines = fewer cargo ship losses on the route to the South Atlantic.

The really big benefit to the Allies is the huge coast the Axis must guard a couple years later. Streatching out resources that much further turns any attempt at a Atlantic Wall into a Atlantic coastal speed bump. Beyond that Iberian anti Facists and SOE operations would turn the region into a large economic & military sinkhole for the Axis. About the only gain is cheap & easy access to Iberian Wolfram ore. I'll leave others to judge how large a benefit that is.
 
The really big benefit to the Allies is the huge coast the Axis must guard a couple years later. Streatching out resources that much further turns any attempt at a Atlantic Wall into a Atlantic coastal speed bump. Beyond that Iberian anti Facists and SOE operations would turn the region into a large economic & military sinkhole for the Axis. About the only gain is cheap & easy access to Iberian Wolfram ore. I'll leave others to judge how large a benefit that is.

Can the Germans take the Rock? If so, how likely are they to be able to sweep through British N. Africa?
 
There is no reason for Spain to be Soviet aligned if they can crush the rebellion fairly fast, ofcourse with the Germans and Italians out the UK and US might be even more openly pro-rebel (was about to say francoist but it was just chance that made him the top dog)
 
There is no reason for Spain to be Soviet aligned if they can crush the rebellion fairly fast, ofcourse with the Germans and Italians out the UK and US might be even more openly pro-rebel (was about to say francoist but it was just chance that made him the top dog)

The Spanish Republican government at the time was mostly composed of left-liberals and Marxist Socialists (the Popular Front), it depends on how the Socialists handle the post-coup situation, maybe they would side with the USSR if Britain and France prove hostile to the Republican government. Bear in mind that even if the anti-Popular Front rebellion fizzles out as a result of Hitler and Mussolini leaving Franco out to dry, there are multiple Anarchist groups all throughout the country that could see this as their opportunity to get their revolution going. An Anarchist Spain would be a whole other animal from a liberal or a soviet socialist republic and could become a wild card nation that nobody can figure out what to do with.
 
The Spanish Republican government at the time was mostly composed of left-liberals and Marxist Socialists (the Popular Front), it depends on how the Socialists handle the post-coup situation, maybe they would side with the USSR if Britain and France prove hostile to the Republican government. Bear in mind that even if the anti-Popular Front rebellion fizzles out as a result of Hitler and Mussolini leaving Franco out to dry, there are multiple Anarchist groups all throughout the country that could see this as their opportunity to get their revolution going. An Anarchist Spain would be a whole other animal from a liberal or a soviet socialist republic and could become a wild card nation that nobody can figure out what to do with.

That doesnt change the fact that it was UK and US actions that forced the Republicans into the arms of the Soviets and the only ones capable to offer a serious challenge to the Government were the Basques and theCNT
 
The Spanish Republican government at the time was mostly composed of left-liberals and Marxist Socialists (the Popular Front), it depends on how the Socialists handle the post-coup situation, maybe they would side with the USSR if Britain and France prove hostile to the Republican government. Bear in mind that even if the anti-Popular Front rebellion fizzles out as a result of Hitler and Mussolini leaving Franco out to dry, there are multiple Anarchist groups all throughout the country that could see this as their opportunity to get their revolution going. An Anarchist Spain would be a whole other animal from a liberal or a soviet socialist republic and could become a wild card nation that nobody can figure out what to do with.

Why would France be hostile? It was ruled by another Popular Front.

That doesnt change the fact that it was UK and US actions that forced the Republicans into the arms of the Soviets and the only ones capable to offer a serious challenge to the Government were the Basques and theCNT

I, once, read, that, most people in the USA were, actually, supportive of the Republicans.
 
Why would France be hostile? It was ruled by another Popular Front.



I, once, read, that, most people in the USA were, actually, supportive of the Republicans.
Probably for the same reason as OTL the Brits force them

The Government sure as hell wasn´t, the rebels on the other hand was fed by US wheat and the army fueled by US oil (all bought on credit [not from the US Government.]), while the Republicans where under a virtual embargo
 
Why would France be hostile? It was ruled by another Popular Front.

A popular front that had collapsed by 1938 largely for unrelated reasons, a conservative successive government in France would have no reason to be friendly to the Republican government unless conservatives likewise get back into power the old fashioned way in the 1939 Spanish general election which never took place OTL.
 
Can the Germans take the Rock? If so, how likely are they to be able to sweep through British N. Africa?

Taking Gibraltar has nothing to do with the carrying capacity of the residual Italian cargo fleet in the Mediterranean, the capacity of the Lybian ports, the ability of the Axis logisticians to move supplies cross country without railroads, the defects of the Italian military. Making the western Mediterranean much more difficult for the Brits means they focus on Egypts direct defense and activity in the easter Med. Other than the convoy of Operation TIGER it does not make a difference in material delivered to Egypt and would mean a few less Brit cargo ships sunk.

It does allow easier passage of the Italia Navy to the Atlantic. The down side for that is that navy had all it could handle keeping the sea lane open to Africa, or more importantly Lybia. Drawing down the Italian Mediterranean fleet for operations in the Atlantic somehow seems wrong. Any Italian ships that do venture into the big sea are outside their operating experience, and have to snake past a web of Brit patrols based on the former Spanish and Portuguese islands.

At the end of the war I can see the pale damp German garrison surrendering Gibraltar & congratulating each other on having never been conquered. Never mind that from mid 1942 they were isolated and unable to to make further attacks on Allied ships passing by.
 
Germany was motivated by pragmatic as well as ideological considerations. Spain was an important source of natural resources like Tungsten for the German war machine, as well as a potential captive market for German manufactured goods. The bilateral German trade agreements in Southeastern Europe that secured minerals and agricultural goods without expending foreign exchange needed for rearmament were a model for German-Spanish relations. WW2 freed Spain from its obligations to German creditors, but otherwise it would have been part of an informal German economic empire that also included much of Southeastern Europe.

The influence of Hjalmar Schacht was important in this policy area, keeping the "economic fuhrer" out of power might prevent German intervention in Spain. Schacht was the Reichsbank President that ended hyperinflation in the '20s, the first nazi economics minister and financial mastermind behind nazi rearmament, and one of three Nuremberg defendants who was acquitted.

The lack of western support hurt the republicans OTL, but the lack of fascist intervention could make France less hesitant to intervene. Leon Blum initially considered fulfilling the republican request for aid, but soon backed off after a perfect storm of several factors. The failed coup that began the SCW occurred on July 17-18th, 1936, but the Spanish Ambassador to France was a conservative with rebel sympathies who dragged his feet on relying information from the government in Madrid to Leon Blum's government. A member of Blum's cabinet leaked the plans to aid the republicans to the German Ambassador to France, who created a diplomatic uproar that led Blum to back down.

In a scenario without foreign intervention or just a different course of action by the Spanish government, the odds definitely favored the Republicans. The republican government knew a coup attempt was coming about a week beforehand, but planned to let it go forward on the assumption that it would just fizzle out. General Sanjurjo was at the center of a failed coup plot in 1932, which is why so many nationalist military leaders had been sent to Morocco, and the government had been reshuffling and dismissing officers.

The plot began in Morocco on July 17th, but poor communication meant that coup plotters in northern Spain didn't receive the signal to revolt until the 21st, when they lost any element of surprise.

The Navy was on the government side, as was much of the air force (173 republican planes vs. 40 nationalist planes at the conflict's start), and the Army of Africa was stranded in Morocco. A timeline without intervention would see the nationalists quickly defeated, followed by tension between leftist militias and the more moderate republican government. The republican government opened its armories to communist and anarchist militias in order to defeat the nationalists, but these factions' loyalty to Manuel Azaña Diaz's elected government was questionable at best.
 
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Probably for the same reason as OTL the Brits force them

The Government sure as hell wasn´t, the rebels on the other hand was fed by US wheat and the army fueled by US oil (all bought on credit [not from the US Government.]), while the Republicans where under a virtual embargo

Actually, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was supportive of the Republicans, see https://books.google.pt/books/about/FDR_and_the_Spanish_Civil_War.html?id=LgkuIcArK6sC&redir_esc=y.
He tried to send food to Spain as well as illegal covert aid to the Spanish government, and to mediate a compromise solution to the civil war.
 
Actually, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was supportive of the Republicans, see https://books.google.pt/books/about/FDR_and_the_Spanish_Civil_War.html?id=LgkuIcArK6sC&redir_esc=y.
He tried to send food to Spain as well as illegal covert aid to the Spanish government, and to mediate a compromise solution to the civil war.

Some years ago this led to a discussion of US intervention. I pointed out that the only ready force was a single combined arms brigade of Marines on the east coast. A second brigade could have been sent from the west coast in maybe sixty days, and a base defense battalion or two. Under absolutely best case it would have taken the US Army three months to have a 24,000 man expeditionary force ready on the docks. After mobilization of some reserve officers and probably some National Guard regiments the Army might have had 50,000 ready in six months.
 
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