Oluja would turn into general war between Serbs and Croat-Muslim Federation. Western Srpska would collapse between Croatian and Moslem attacks. Around Vukovar in Croatia big battles, probably Croatia advances a couple miles into Serbia. Dubrovnik destroyed. UN peacekeepers try to flee, return home in body bags a few years later, killed by Serbs for being in the way and by Moslems for Srebrenica and Zepa. Goradze enclave wiped out though. Uprising in Kosovo and Sandzak, heavy loss of life on both sides. By the end of the year, armistice signed, with Croatia free of Serbs but eastern parts of Bosnia and Hercegovina accepted as parts of Serbia and Montenegro. Rump Bosnia controls 75-80% of prewar territory but dependent on Croatia as senior partner in Federal structure. Yugoslavia given lease on life as tripartite federation of all Serbs. This weakens it and leads to Montenegrin separatism which ends with JNA/VJ Generals launching coup d'etat in 2002 and crushing separatism of all kinds. Economy slowly improves as sanctions lifted in aftermath of cease-fire.
EU discredited vis-a-vis common foreign policy, slowing moves to integration. NATO also weakened in critical period while search for enemy raison-d-etre. Possibility NATO disbands, reformed as Central European defense pact against Russia (and Germany?). US moves toward isolationism or more muscular policy in Latin America.