No Napoleonic invasion of Egypt: how strong do the Saudis get?

In the early 19th Century, the Saudis were becoming ever more powerful from their base in central Arabia. If Napoleon never went to Egypt, Muhammad Ali would never come to power, and his dramatic military and social reforms never happen. That means there isn't a powerful European-style Egyptian army for the Arabian campaigns, which our timeline resulted in the crushing of Saudi power.

If this doesn't happen, what happens to the Saudis? Do they take over all of Arabia, including the Holy Cities? Would they be able to start moving into Iraq and Syria?
 
In the early 19th Century, the Saudis were becoming ever more powerful from their base in central Arabia. If Napoleon never went to Egypt, Muhammad Ali would never come to power, and his dramatic military and social reforms never happen. That means there isn't a powerful European-style Egyptian army for the Arabian campaigns, which our timeline resulted in the crushing of Saudi power.

If this doesn't happen, what happens to the Saudis? Do they take over all of Arabia, including the Holy Cities? Would they be able to start moving into Iraq and Syria?

Saudi's have no strength to face the Ottomans. In OTL they never managed to go further than raiding Najaf and Karbala. Outright conquest is ASB for them. The Ottoman Army, even before the reforms, was better and bigger than the Saudi forces.

No Mehmed Ali is actually a net positive for the Ottomans. Albeit not necessarily with reforms but in dealing with treacherous Pashas. Egypt was huge pain in the ass with Mehmed Ali Pasha. Any other with less ambition could have beaten the Sauds.
 
Saudi's have no strength to face the Ottomans. In OTL they never managed to go further than raiding Najaf and Karbala. Outright conquest is ASB for them. The Ottoman Army, even before the reforms, was better and bigger than the Saudi forces.

No Mehmed Ali is actually a net positive for the Ottomans. Albeit not necessarily with reforms but in dealing with treacherous Pashas. Egypt was huge pain in the ass with Mehmed Ali Pasha. Any other with less ambition could have beaten the Sauds.

My understanding was that they actually conquered the Hejaz and the holy cities during this time. I believe the Ottomans sent armies that lost to them. I know the overall Ottoman forces are going to be more powerful, but not sure the Ottomans have the freedom to move their armed forces so far from the Balkans.
 
My understanding was that they actually conquered the Hejaz and the holy cities during this time. I believe the Ottomans sent armies that lost to them. I know the overall Ottoman forces are going to be more powerful, but not sure the Ottomans have the freedom to move their armed forces so far from the Balkans.

Hejaz was really not well protected. It's protection relied on Egypt or Syria. Which is problematic if Egypt was occupied and only by 1805 restored under Ottoman authorities. Forces from Egypt, be it Mamluks or Janissaries are enough to quell the Sauds. They really are not as strong as you think. Besides... Fath Ali of Persia proposed to fight the Sauds but was denied by Selim III or so. If the Sauds miraculously take at least Souther Iraq, the Ottomans can't prevent the Qajars from invading... Although, after 1813, because of the Russo-Persian War.
 
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