No NAFTA

[Expat]

Sorry if this has been done before. I searched for "NAFTA" and nothing applicable came up.

I'd like to skip passed the "how to" and just discuss what effects a world without NAFTA would see.

I would imagine Mexico would be worse off, for starters.

Would purchasing power in the US take a hit? More expensive products?

To what extent is NAFTA linked to the decline in the fortunes of the American auto worker? Obviously Roger & Me aired long before NAFTA happened, but did NAFTA accelerate the process?

What changes do you see happening?

 

[EarlofChatham]

Would there still be the FTA between Canada and the US?

 

[ramones1986]

A certain telenovela will be butterflied

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Would there still be the FTA between Canada and the US?

There was already a FTA between the United States and Canada before Mexico joined it, exactly 20 years ago.

 

[Expat]

There was already a FTA between the United States and Canada before Mexico joined it, exactly 20 years ago.

Yes, for the sake of ease, let's just keep it at NAFTA disappears, not all free trade. Though that would be a fun question, it would also devolve into a rant of rants, I'm guessing (rant is the collective noun for rants, I have decided.)

 

[Simon]

With less industry moving south of the border to take advantage of lower costs the Mexican economy is going to be in much worse shape, likely this means increased illegal immigration from Mexico to the US by those that now don't have jobs that NAFTA helped create. China is likely to pick up a fair bit of the slack. Could we perhaps see some of the jobs/industry that aren't wildly economical to do in the Far East stay in the US by possibly relocation to the South-East or other low-cost areas?

 

[Plumber]

I would imagine Mexico would be worse off, for starters.

You imagine wrong. NAFTA is one of the reasons why Mexican immigration increased so much since the '90s began. NAFTA devastated the Mexican agricultural industry because instead of truly free trade, it gave American agribusiness several exceptions that weren't given to Mexican companies. Basically, Americans lost a lot of jobs to Mexico, which gained some jobs from America and got its agricultural industry fucked up. Mexico then lost a lot more jobs to China.
The only country IOTL that has really benefited unambiguously from NAFTA is Canada.

 

[LHB]

I would imagine Mexico would be worse off, for starters.

Actually there's a lot of evidence to suggest Mexico might actually have been better off without the total wipeout of the agricultural sector thanks to NAFTA plus US agricultural subsidies. There's a direct link between that and the massive, sustained increase in illegal immigration that started in the 90s and only started to decline when the economy up and died in 2008. No NAFTA means there's a lot more people in Mexico's rural sectors with actual jobs, less reason to get involved in the cartels, and more stable local economies. Mexican big business might not do as well but I think the average Mexican will be doing notable better compared to OTL.

 

[Expat]

You imagine wrong. NAFTA is one of the reasons why Mexican immigration increased so much since the '90s began. NAFTA devastated the Mexican agricultural industry because instead of truly free trade, it gave American agribusiness several exceptions that weren't given to Mexican companies. Basically, Americans lost a lot of jobs to Mexico, which gained some jobs from America and got its agricultural industry fucked up. Mexico then lost a lot more jobs to China.
The only country IOTL that has really benefited unambiguously from NAFTA is Canada.

Okay, so Mexico is better off? What does that look like?
(You seem to have thought about this before, I hope you don't mind a little elaboration?)

Edit: LHB ninja'd my request with an answer.

 

[Expat]

Actually there's a lot of evidence to suggest Mexico might actually have been better off without the total wipeout of the agricultural sector thanks to NAFTA plus US agricultural subsidies. There's a direct link between that and the massive, sustained increase in illegal immigration that started in the 90s and only started to decline when the economy up and died in 2008. No NAFTA means there's a lot more people in Mexico's rural sectors with actual jobs, less reason to get involved in the cartels, and more stable local economies. Mexican big business might not do as well but I think the average Mexican will be doing notable better compared to OTL.

So weaker cartels in general, or just less violent?

 

[Dan1988]

NAFTA failing (i.e. no NAFTA) would deal a severe blow to Carlos Salinas de Gortarí's credibility, given that as President he invested so much political capital in NAFTA as a centrepiece of his neoliberal economic reform programme that it would make Mexicans more suspicious of his motives - especially once Mexico gets involved in yet another financial crisis which sends the peso in a tailspin. Given that he amassed an illicit amount of wealth, along with his brother Raúl, this would only drive the PRI to use more fraud and rigging elections to maintain its position. In fact, maybe Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas would finally get that coveted Presidency during the 1994 elections that was denied him in the 1988 elections as more Mexicans would be driven into the arms of the opposition - both the conservative PAN and social-democratic PRD. D) Luis Donaldo Colosio, as popular as he was, could definitely not save the PRI's credibility at this point - not unless if he promises to nationalize and/or break up Televisa.

 

[ramones1986]

Luis Donaldo Colosio, as popular as he was, could definitely not save the PRI's credibility at this point - not unless if he promises to nationalize and/or break up Televisa.

I'm interested on this issue; the nationalization/dismantling of Televisa.

 

[The Kiat]

So weaker cartels in general, or just less violent?

One or the other, but as long as there's a demand for their products/services, those people would still be around.

 

[TheMann]

You imagine wrong. NAFTA is one of the reasons why Mexican immigration increased so much since the '90s began. NAFTA devastated the Mexican agricultural industry because instead of truly free trade, it gave American agribusiness several exceptions that weren't given to Mexican companies. Basically, Americans lost a lot of jobs to Mexico, which gained some jobs from America and got its agricultural industry fucked up. Mexico then lost a lot more jobs to China.
The only country IOTL that has really benefited unambiguously from NAFTA is Canada.

I wouldn't even say Canada unambiguously benefited from NAFTA. Canada's resource-extraction industries benefited quite considerably, but the country's value-added industries took a big hit from it, and most of the country's unions and industrial workers, as well as some companies, hate NAFTA and quite openly call for its renegotiation or dismantling. Ontario and Quebec would probably argue that they have not been as big a benefit as some might think.