Perhaps, but: Sassanids, Bulgarians, Monophysite and Coptic Christians, Serbs, Turcomans, non- Islamic Arabs... not certain at all.The Eastern Roman Empire likely survives into the modern era
Aksumite Arabia. Coptic invasion of the Middle East.One PoD to this effect that I played with a while back was having the Aksumites succeed in capturing Mecca in 570 CE, and thus butterflying away Islam.
You are still going to have a large migration of Arab tribes out of the peninsula into Mesopotamia, the Levant and Egypt. No Islam probably means a lesser amount of Arab expansion but both the Byzantine and Sassanid Empire were fairly weakened by decades of warfare between the two.
But how big was the Arab population? I tend to think that without the emergence of a common religion, any Arab tribes that move into the Middle East are just as likely to do so independent of any state. Without a common polity, I can easily see them assimilating into the wider, largely Aramaic-speaking society.
Although finding a way to still replace Aramaic with Arabic would be interesting nonetheless. (Admittedly I know little of linguistics.)
But how big was the Arab population? I tend to think that without the emergence of a common religion, any Arab tribes that move into the Middle East are just as likely to do so independent of any state. Without a common polity, I can easily see them assimilating into the wider, largely Aramaic-speaking society.
Although finding a way to still replace Aramaic with Arabic would be interesting nonetheless. (Admittedly I know little of linguistics.)
Agent of Byzantium is a shame.
Not wortyhing to read.
Honestly the timeline can go just about anywhere from there. The unification of the Arab tribes and their subsequent rampage throughout the Middle East shows that it was possible. That unification would be difficult without the core of Islam, but not necessarily impossible. Without unifying there's a chance of less organized migrations, as stated already, which would probably result in limited success in the recently devastated Mesopotamian region and a demographic shift in that region as well as the admission of smaller groups into the Byzantine and Sassanid Empires in return for military service, but no new power established. Third scenario is exploding population is turned inwards as different powers vie for control of the peninsula giving the Byzantines and the Persians the decade or so necessary to recover from their previous war.
Most likely scenario is an expansion to neighboring areas, but nothing like OTL. Christianity holds around the Mediterranean and Zoroastrianism continues to grow in Persia. The inherent divisions in Christianity remain, but perhaps without the looming threat of Islam absolutism is somewhat diluted. It is harder for the Arch Bishop of Rome to claim primacy with thriving Christian communities still existing around Constantinople, Antioch, Jerusalem and Alexandria.